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// Elo ratings 545,248 matches rated · 14,931 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,248
Teams rated14,931
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,687 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 13.9% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,871 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,063 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,728 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,815 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,161 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,386 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,460 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,561 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.61% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.98% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.39% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,282 24.61% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,400 19.98% 0 — — —
300+ 6,491 12.39% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
9 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
10 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
11 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,931 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
301 Poland POL 1,733 1,971 894 2026-09-28
302 AC Sparta Praha CZE 1,733 1,802 333 2026-09-16
303 Chile CHI 1,732 2,130 835 2026-06-09
304 Stabæk Fotball NOR 1,731 1,997 1,159 2026-09-20
305 Burkina Faso BFA 1,731 1,782 464 2026-06-09
306 Jamaica JAM 1,729 1,871 663 2026-06-06
307 FK Austria Wien AUT 1,729 1,871 1,006 2026-09-19
308 Waterschei SV Thor BEL 1,728 1,757 92 1983-08-28
309 1. FC Magdeburg GER 1,728 1,730 504 2026-09-18
310 Nashville SC USA 1,728 1,728 254 2026-09-27
311 Cape Verde CPV 1,728 1,747 239 2026-07-03
312 Ararat-Armenia ARM 1,727 1,793 289 2026-09-16
313 Bryne FK NOR 1,726 1,799 1,425 2026-09-19
314 Dundee SCO 1,726 1,760 1,360 2026-09-19
315 VfL Bochum GER 1,725 1,830 1,201 2026-09-20
316 Basel SUI 1,725 1,994 1,189 2026-09-20
317 NEC Nijmegen NED 1,724 1,829 1,009 2026-09-20
318 Parma Calcio ITA 1,723 1,860 1,320 2026-09-20
319 US Lecce ITA 1,722 1,747 981 2026-09-20
320 FC St. Pauli GER 1,721 1,848 1,045 2026-09-20
321 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH 1,721 1,881 289 2026-09-28
322 Jagiellonia Białystok POL 1,721 1,826 653 2026-09-20
323 St Mirren SCO 1,721 1,806 1,362 2026-09-19
324 Burnley ENG 1,720 1,952 2,047 2026-09-19
325 1. FC Kaiserslautern GER 1,720 1,797 1,294 2026-09-19
326 Utrecht NED 1,720 1,834 1,252 2026-09-20
327 Sint-Truidense VV BEL 1,720 1,801 1,024 2026-09-20
328 Sanfrecce Hiroshima JPN 1,720 1,800 622 2026-09-19
329 Kilmarnock SCO 1,719 1,843 1,383 2026-09-19
330 Cardiff City ENG 1,719 1,828 2,008 2026-09-19
331 Thun SUI 1,719 1,840 627 2026-09-20
332 Queens Park Rangers ENG 1,719 1,782 1,992 2026-09-19
333 Tunisia TUN 1,719 1,917 681 2026-06-25
334 Al-Hilal KSA 1,718 1,728 148 2026-09-12
335 FK Crvena Zvezda (Red Star Belgrade) SRB 1,714 1,738 358 2026-07-12
336 Vissel Kobe JPN 1,714 1,824 531 2026-09-20
337 Cruz Azul MEX 1,711 1,764 553 2026-09-26
338 Bristol City ENG 1,711 1,828 2,024 2026-09-18
339 Burgos CF ESP 1,711 1,711 280 2026-09-27
340 Stockport County ENG 1,711 1,769 1,611 2026-09-26
341 IF Gnistan FIN 1,711 1,711 134 2026-09-18
342 AEK Larnaca CYP 1,710 1,725 83 2026-09-27
343 Venezia ITA 1,710 1,768 683 2026-09-26
344 OFI Crete GRE 1,708 1,737 1,155 2026-09-20
345 Guatemala GUA 1,708 1,757 554 2026-06-07
346 UD Las Palmas ESP 1,708 1,803 1,213 2026-09-27
347 Le Havre AC FRA 1,707 1,753 1,254 2026-09-19
348 Kashiwa Reysol JPN 1,706 1,753 533 2026-09-20
349 FC Rostov RUS 1,706 1,833 448 2026-07-31
350 Silkeborg IF DEN 1,705 1,813 430 2026-09-18
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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