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// Elo ratings 545,225 matches rated · 14,930 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,225
Teams rated14,930
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,672 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,871 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,058 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,726 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,813 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,161 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,383 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,457 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,120 2,143 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,071 2,097 2026-09-20
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,930 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
351 Málaga CF ESP 1,705 1,894 1,156 2026-09-20
352 Jiangsu Suning CHN 1,705 1,735 263 2020-12-19
353 Nest-Sotra Fotball NOR 1,704 1,721 160 2019-11-09
354 AS Saint-Étienne FRA 1,703 1,872 1,405 2026-09-19
355 Plymouth Argyle ENG 1,703 1,762 1,937 2026-09-26
356 Real Oviedo ESP 1,702 1,740 889 2026-09-27
357 SV Zulte Waregem BEL 1,701 1,797 772 2026-09-19
358 Standard Liège BEL 1,701 1,886 1,465 2026-09-18
359 ES Troyes AC FRA 1,701 1,733 1,131 2026-09-19
360 Albania ALB 1,701 1,752 399 2026-09-26
361 Peru PER 1,700 2,013 714 2026-06-08
362 Blackburn Rovers ENG 1,699 1,928 2,073 2026-09-19
363 Bradford City ENG 1,698 1,698 1,971 2026-09-19
364 CD Santa Clara POR 1,698 1,700 370 2026-09-20
365 Deportivo Toluca MEX 1,698 1,796 552 2026-09-26
366 KVC Westerlo BEL 1,697 1,719 875 2026-09-20
367 Kashima Antlers JPN 1,696 1,823 600 2026-09-19
368 Athletico Paranaense BRA 1,696 1,757 575 2026-09-20
369 Atlético Mineiro BRA 1,695 1,853 643 2026-09-19
370 Haiti HAI 1,695 1,781 513 2026-06-24
371 German DR — 1,695 1,857 298 1990-09-12
372 Derby County ENG 1,694 1,852 2,067 2026-09-19
373 Stenhousemuir SCO 1,694 1,694 1,150 2026-09-25
374 FCSB ROU 1,694 1,883 879 2026-09-19
375 Karpaty Lviv UKR 1,693 1,699 339 2026-09-20
376 New Zealand NZL 1,693 1,868 416 2026-06-26
377 Northern Ireland NIR 1,692 1,811 709 2026-09-28
378 Honka FIN 1,692 1,771 372 2025-04-16
379 AC Monza ITA 1,692 1,812 512 2026-09-26
380 Bolivia BOL 1,692 1,750 534 2026-06-10
381 Groningen NED 1,692 1,736 1,117 2026-09-18
382 Al Ittihad KSA 1,691 1,691 142 2026-09-11
383 Randers FC DEN 1,691 1,800 581 2026-09-20
384 Palermo ITA 1,690 1,847 994 2026-09-19
385 SønderjyskE DEN 1,690 1,770 480 2026-09-20
386 Odense BK DEN 1,690 1,749 575 2026-09-19
387 Stoke City ENG 1,690 1,901 2,029 2026-09-19
388 Pogoń Szczecin POL 1,690 1,767 625 2026-09-26
389 Vancouver Whitecaps USA 1,689 1,711 521 2026-09-27
390 SV Darmstadt 98 GER 1,689 1,837 565 2026-09-30
391 HNK Rijeka CRO 1,689 1,692 92 2026-03-19
392 Jersey — 1,688 1,772 235 2025-07-18
393 Holstein Kiel GER 1,688 1,811 542 2026-09-19
394 FC Pyunik Yerevan ARM 1,688 1,909 886 2026-05-27
395 Portsmouth ENG 1,688 1,914 1,950 2026-09-19
396 Göztepe TUR 1,687 1,754 510 2026-09-20
397 FC Machida Zelvia JPN 1,687 1,739 111 2026-09-20
398 GKS Katowice POL 1,685 1,707 229 2026-09-19
399 Livingston SCO 1,685 1,825 1,229 2026-09-25
400 Go Ahead Eagles NED 1,684 1,771 459 2026-09-20
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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