Who is overdue a draw?

Ranks teams by a draw-likelihood score blending recent draw rate (p50 / p100), the current no-draw streak N, how stretched it is versus the team's own record (N / Max), and the resulting "draw debt" E = p_weighted × N. A team sitting at its record max is more overdue than one with plenty of headroom. The score is relative to the teams in view.

“Overdue” describes the run, not evidence that a draw is coming: over a million team-matches, neither N, E nor the score raises the next match's draw chance.

Candidates100

Top score 0.727 Hartlepool United

Global draws24.3%133,242 drawn

No-draw N 21 Hartlepool United

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Draw predictor ranking 100 rows

E = draw debt (p_weighted × N) N = current no-draw streak Max = record no-draw streak Avg = typical long run (avg of top 10) p100 = draw rate, last 100 Draw% = all-time draw rate Score = draw likelihood (0–1), ranked vs all teams

#	Team	E	N	Max	Avg	p100	Draw%	Score▾
01	ENGHartlepool United	4.87	21	21	14.2	28%	26.0%	0.727
02	AUTSCR Altach	4.83	17	19	12.6	30%	25.9%	0.708
03	POLJagiellonia Białystok	4.35	17	17	12.3	28%	26.9%	0.696
04	NORIK Start	4.12	21	21	15.0	22%	21.6%	0.678
05	SCOKelty Hearts	3.90	15	15	8.7	26%	24.7%	0.666
06	SRBSerbia	3.66	15	15	10.1	26%	25.3%	0.651
07	FINVPS Vaasa	3.55	16	16	10.5	21%	24.3%	0.643
08	AUTSK Rapid Wien	3.82	21	26	15.3	21%	20.5%	0.630
09	CROCroatia	3.30	15	15	9.4	22%	25.7%	0.629
10	POLBruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza	3.14	12	12	7.7	25%	25.0%	0.620
11	GERHamburger SV	3.66	15	20	14.8	26%	25.7%	0.614
12	ALBAlbania	3.01	16	16	11.0	18%	20.8%	0.605
13	GERFSV 63 Luckenwalde	2.90	15	15	6.4	23%	22.9%	0.600
14	ITAVenezia	2.71	12	12	9.7	27%	30.3%	0.596
15	CHNQingdao Hainiu	2.73	13	13	7.1	23%	22.1%	0.589
16	ESPCórdoba CF	2.91	14	16	12.1	24%	27.6%	0.587
17	GRNGrenada	2.72	14	14	7.6	19%	21.2%	0.587
18	ITAUS Lecce	2.85	15	17	11.8	21%	28.5%	0.585
19	FRAOlympique de Marseille	2.52	18	18	13.4	14%	25.5%	0.582
20	BELRAAL La Louvière	2.12	6	6	3.4	35%	34.9%	0.579
21	SUIVaduz	2.58	14	14	6.2	20%	22.6%	0.579
22	NORFK Bodø/Glimt	2.48	20	20	16.3	14%	20.3%	0.577
23	BELFCV Dender EH	2.82	10	12	7.0	27%	22.6%	0.574
24	RUSOrenburg	2.83	12	15	8.9	26%	24.3%	0.568
25	JPNUrawa Red Diamonds	2.53	11	12	9.6	25%	24.9%	0.567
26	ENGScunthorpe United	3.05	14	19	15.0	23%	27.2%	0.562
27	ARGClub Atlético Aldosivi	2.42	10	11	9.8	23%	23.3%	0.558
28	KSAAl-Hilal	2.13	8	8	4.8	27%	25.2%	0.558
29	FRAAS Nancy-Lorraine	2.86	10	14	10.5	29%	30.0%	0.557
30	POLRaków Częstochowa	2.76	13	17	11.3	22%	22.8%	0.556
31	ITAOspitaletto	1.54	4	4	2.9	38%	38.5%	0.554
32	JPNMito HollyHock	1.84	6	6	2.4	31%	30.6%	0.551
33	TURÇorum	2.00	8	8	3.8	25%	25.0%	0.548
34	PORPorto	2.58	19	24	18.7	16%	17.7%	0.548
35	GERVSG Altglienicke	2.24	9	10	5.7	24%	24.1%	0.547
36	ESPCD Eldense	1.95	8	8	5.0	26%	27.0%	0.547
37	ENGHarrogate Town	2.24	13	14	11.6	18%	23.3%	0.547
38	TUREyüpspor	2.24	11	12	5.7	22%	22.8%	0.545
39	POLGKS Katowice	2.71	12	17	8.9	23%	21.0%	0.543
40	UKRKudrivka	1.98	9	9	4.6	22%	22.0%	0.541
41	ITANovara	3.47	8	16	10.9	43%	32.2%	0.538
42	ARGArgentina	2.65	21	33	15.1	17%	23.8%	0.538
43	RUSFC Rostov	2.41	9	12	9.2	26%	27.2%	0.536
44	USAUnited States	2.24	16	19	14.5	18%	20.2%	0.533
45	GERRSV Eintracht 1949	1.88	10	10	6.0	19%	18.8%	0.529
46	GERFC Ingolstadt 04	2.34	10	14	9.9	27%	28.7%	0.529
47	ENGNorwich City	2.34	15	20	13.7	18%	24.5%	0.529
48	TURTurkey	2.07	11	13	10.3	22%	23.2%	0.523
49	TURKocaelispor	2.57	11	17	11.5	23%	24.6%	0.521
50	FRARed Star	2.32	8	13	7.5	27%	29.5%	0.519
51	GERWaldhof Mannheim	2.42	11	17	11.5	26%	31.4%	0.517
52	IRLDrogheda United	2.99	9	17	10.9	34%	28.4%	0.515
53	ITAAS Cittadella	2.44	10	15	10.9	26%	30.1%	0.514
54	KSAAl Kholood	1.41	6	6	6.0	24%	23.5%	0.509
55	ITAVis Pesaro	2.59	7	14	8.2	35%	33.0%	0.503
56	GERGreifswalder FC	1.93	7	10	5.3	26%	25.9%	0.503
57	PORAcadémico de Viseu	1.40	7	7	5.5	20%	20.0%	0.500
58	GREPanathinaikos	2.83	13	21	16.2	23%	21.0%	0.498
59	ROUCorvinul Hunedoara	1.49	6	7	3.1	27%	26.6%	0.496
60	FRARodez AF	2.39	7	15	7.7	33%	33.8%	0.494
61	VGBBritish Virgin Islands	1.36	7	7	5.1	19%	17.3%	0.494
62	SUINeuchâtel Xamax	1.73	8	10	7.5	24%	21.2%	0.494
63	ENGSolihull Moors	1.98	9	12	9.7	22%	25.6%	0.493
64	BELSporting Charleroi	2.31	11	15	13.1	23%	24.7%	0.492
65	ARMVan	1.80	10	13	9.5	18%	19.4%	0.490
66	ESPBurgos CF	2.14	8	13	8.8	26%	28.4%	0.487
67	AUTAustria Lustenau	1.74	8	11	6.3	23%	21.7%	0.485
68	KSAAl-Ahli	1.26	8	8	5.3	17%	15.9%	0.484
69	ARGEstudiantes de Río Cuarto	1.58	7	9	4.7	23%	22.5%	0.483
70	ROUUTA Arad	1.99	7	11	7.6	30%	26.9%	0.483
71	SWEVästerås SK	1.42	8	9	5.8	19%	16.4%	0.480
72	BRASão Paulo	1.69	9	12	9.5	22%	26.6%	0.477
73	CIVIvory Coast	2.39	13	30	13.6	20%	25.2%	0.476
74	POLŚląsk Wrocław	2.10	7	11	8.6	30%	31.0%	0.475
75	ENGPlymouth Argyle	2.14	12	18	14.0	19%	24.6%	0.473
76	PURPuerto Rico	1.09	7	7	6.0	18%	15.6%	0.472
77	KSAAl Fateh	1.04	6	6	3.2	17%	17.0%	0.471
78	MYAMyanmar	1.68	10	14	10.0	16%	17.5%	0.471
79	ENGFylde	1.35	9	11	8.2	17%	24.5%	0.471
80	NORNorway	1.92	10	14	11.3	20%	22.2%	0.470
81	Bonaire	1.13	9	9	3.5	13%	12.5%	0.470
82	KSAAl Khaleej	0.86	4	4	2.4	21%	21.4%	0.469
83	PORCD Nacional	2.03	9	13	10.8	23%	24.7%	0.468
84	ARUAruba	0.99	8	8	5.3	14%	19.9%	0.467
85	BELClub Brugge KV	2.09	18	29	20.6	14%	19.2%	0.467
86	JPNFagiano Okayama	1.62	8	12	4.2	21%	20.5%	0.466
87	KSAAl Ittihad	1.51	6	9	5.2	26%	22.1%	0.466
88	KSAAbha	0.71	3	3	2.2	24%	23.7%	0.465
89	BRAEC Bahia	2.03	8	12	9.9	25%	27.8%	0.465
90	SUIServette	2.29	8	14	10.0	29%	24.2%	0.465
91	ESPReal Sociedad B	1.69	7	12	6.2	24%	24.2%	0.465
92	POLWieczysta Kraków	0.95	6	6	4.3	16%	15.8%	0.462
93	BRACruzeiro	2.40	8	14	11.1	30%	26.6%	0.460
94	ITACarpi	1.63	6	9	6.8	28%	29.3%	0.459
95	TURSamsunspor	2.32	9	16	11.5	27%	24.0%	0.459
96	KSAAl Ettifaq	0.91	3	4	2.8	30%	30.3%	0.457
97	FRAAnnecy	1.33	7	10	6.9	21%	27.2%	0.457
98	CHIChile	2.38	10	21	11.9	25%	21.4%	0.457
99	ENGCoventry City	2.28	12	21	15.3	21%	26.0%	0.456
100	JPNAvispa Fukuoka	1.80	6	10	7.2	30%	28.1%	0.452

Prediction detail Hartlepool United

ENG · Hartlepool United

0.727

draw-likelihood score · rank #2

draw debt E

4.87

21 since last draw

p100 · last 100 draw rate 28%

p50 · last 50 draw rate 16%

overall draw rate 26%

recent form · draws highlighted

L D D L W W L W W W L L L W L L L L L L W W W L

27 Oct 2026 Fylde 3–1 Hartlepool United A ENG National League

24 Oct 2026 Hartlepool United 2–1 Hornchurch H ENG National League

24 Oct 2026 Hartlepool United 2–1 AFC Hornchurch H ENG National League

10 Oct 2026 Forest Green Rovers 2–4 Hartlepool United A ENG National League

03 Oct 2026 Hartlepool United 0–1 Tamworth H ENG National League

29 Sep 2026 Hartlepool United 0–1 Harrogate Town H ENG National League

26 Sep 2026 Scunthorpe United 4–1 Hartlepool United A ENG National League

19 Sep 2026 Hartlepool United 1–3 Worthing H ENG National League

16 Sep 2026 Altrincham 2–1 Hartlepool United A ENG National League

11 Sep 2026 Kidderminster Harriers 2–0 Hartlepool United A ENG National League

05 Sep 2026 Hartlepool United 1–0 Woking H ENG National League

01 Sep 2026 Halifax Town 1–0 Hartlepool United A ENG National League

28 Aug 2026 Hartlepool United 0–1 Eastleigh H ENG National League

22 Aug 2026 Sutton United 2–1 Hartlepool United A ENG National League

15 Aug 2026 Aldershot Town 0–1 Hartlepool United A ENG National League

08 Aug 2026 Hartlepool United 2–0 Barrow H ENG National League

01 Aug 2026 Hartlepool United 1–0 Fleetwood Town H ITL Club Friendlies

25 Apr 2026 Boston United 3–1 Hartlepool United A ENG National League

21 Apr 2026 Hartlepool United 4–3 Southend United H ENG National League

18 Apr 2026 Hartlepool United 2–1 Forest Green Rovers H ENG National League

11 Apr 2026 Boreham Wood 3–0 Hartlepool United A ENG National League

06 Apr 2026 Hartlepool United 0–0 Rochdale D ENG National League

03 Apr 2026 Scunthorpe United 0–0 Hartlepool United D ENG National League

31 Mar 2026 Wealdstone 7–0 Hartlepool United A ENG National League

The draw predictor estimates which teams are statistically overdue a draw by blending each side's recent draw rate, its current no-draw streak and how stretched that streak is against the team's own record. The resulting draw-debt score (E = p_weighted × N) ranks candidates relative to the teams in view, so a side sitting at its record maximum reads as more overdue than one with room to spare. Use it to find draw-likely fixtures grounded in historical draw frequency.