Who is overdue a draw?

Ranks teams by a draw-likelihood score blending recent draw rate (p50 / p100), the current no-draw streak N, how stretched it is versus the team's own record (N / Max), and the resulting "draw debt" E = p_weighted × N. A team sitting at its record max is more overdue than one with plenty of headroom. The score is relative to the teams in view.

Candidates100

Top score 0.701 Ascoli Calcio

Global draws23.3%126,309 drawn

No-draw N 19 Club León

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Draw predictor ranking 100 rows

E = draw debt (p_weighted × N) N = current no-draw streak Max = record no-draw streak Avg = typical long run (avg of top 10) p100 = draw rate, last 100 Draw% = all-time draw rate Score = draw likelihood (0–1), ranked vs all teams

#	Team	E	N	Max	Avg	p100	Draw%	Score▾
01	Ascoli Calcio	4.51	16	16	11.1	31%	28.9%	0.701
02	Clyde	5.13	17	23	14.6	29%	24.5%	0.694
03	Sarmiento de Junín	4.26	15	15	9.3	30%	29.5%	0.687
04	Fortuna Düsseldorf	3.38	18	18	13.4	22%	26.6%	0.630
05	Pau FC	3.24	12	12	7.4	29%	27.1%	0.623
06	TSV Hartberg	3.82	13	18	9.7	29%	24.4%	0.615
07	Sevilla	3.47	17	20	16.3	22%	23.7%	0.609
08	Raufoss IL	3.47	17	20	14.4	22%	17.7%	0.603
09	TSV Havelse	2.97	14	14	6.4	22%	22.4%	0.599
10	SC Verl	2.76	10	10	7.3	30%	27.8%	0.596
11	Barracas Central	3.10	9	12	7.0	36%	34.5%	0.592
12	Mantova 1911	2.64	12	12	9.4	26%	32.3%	0.589
13	Atromitos Athens	2.88	11	12	10.3	25%	27.5%	0.589
14	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	2.50	9	9	4.4	28%	27.8%	0.581
15	Faroe Islands	2.79	15	15	10.0	19%	12.5%	0.578
16	Club León	3.42	19	30	15.1	22%	22.9%	0.575
17	Grazer AK	2.36	9	9	7.4	25%	17.0%	0.560
18	Estudiantes de La Plata	2.54	10	12	9.7	29%	30.0%	0.558
19	RB Leipzig	3.09	17	26	14.7	21%	21.4%	0.555
20	FCV Dender EH	2.62	10	12	7.0	25%	21.5%	0.555
21	Dynamo Dresden	2.97	14	20	14.2	22%	25.6%	0.555
22	Ospitaletto	1.54	4	4	2.9	38%	38.5%	0.552
23	Orenburg	2.60	11	14	8.7	26%	24.6%	0.547
24	Serbia	2.68	11	15	9.7	26%	25.6%	0.547
25	Croatia	2.64	11	15	9.0	24%	26.0%	0.544
26	Energie Cottbus	2.60	13	17	12.5	20%	24.9%	0.543
27	Gençlerbirliği	2.32	14	16	11.8	17%	24.2%	0.542
28	Hibernian	3.35	13	21	16.0	27%	25.3%	0.533
29	Novara	3.47	8	16	10.9	43%	32.0%	0.533
30	FC Rostov	2.41	9	12	9.2	26%	27.2%	0.532
31	Shanghai Shenhua	2.29	11	14	10.0	20%	25.1%	0.527
32	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	1.76	8	8	5.2	23%	23.4%	0.526
33	Schalke 04	2.55	14	21	13.7	21%	24.8%	0.525
34	France	2.41	14	19	13.6	18%	20.7%	0.523
35	LASK	2.30	14	18	11.7	18%	18.7%	0.520
36	Yverdon-Sport	2.07	9	10	5.9	21%	12.4%	0.520
37	Qingdao Hainiu	1.87	8	9	6.6	23%	22.6%	0.517
38	AS Cittadella	2.44	10	15	11.0	26%	29.7%	0.508
39	Ukraine	2.08	8	11	8.4	26%	27.8%	0.504
40	Central Córdoba (SdE)	2.06	7	10	7.4	29%	29.5%	0.503
41	Konyaspor	2.47	12	23	12.0	21%	28.1%	0.502
42	FC Juárez	2.32	9	14	9.6	23%	24.8%	0.499
43	Vis Pesaro	2.59	7	14	8.2	35%	33.0%	0.499
44	Vaduz	1.39	7	7	5.5	21%	21.4%	0.498
45	SCR Altach	2.88	10	19	11.9	32%	23.9%	0.497
46	Argentina	2.41	17	33	14.7	17%	23.9%	0.496
47	SC Telstar	1.63	8	9	4.3	19%	19.2%	0.495
48	PEC Zwolle	2.50	10	16	11.3	27%	23.5%	0.495
49	Albania	2.10	10	14	10.4	19%	21.1%	0.493
50	Colorado Rapids	1.99	12	17	11.7	17%	22.7%	0.493
51	Annecy	1.65	8	10	6.6	21%	27.3%	0.492
52	Oldham Athletic	2.76	10	16	13.2	30%	28.1%	0.491
53	South Korea	2.79	11	21	13.2	25%	25.0%	0.488
54	Shakhtar Donetsk	2.97	14	26	17.6	22%	17.7%	0.484
55	Scotland	2.16	12	21	11.6	18%	21.3%	0.482
56	Dumbarton	2.76	12	19	15.9	25%	20.4%	0.481
57	Forest Green Rovers	2.56	10	17	12.7	28%	27.7%	0.478
58	West Bromwich Albion	2.84	9	18	12.3	34%	26.2%	0.475
59	Liechtenstein	1.89	16	24	11.3	13%	12.4%	0.474
60	Aberdeen	2.49	14	27	16.4	19%	23.4%	0.469
61	EC Vitória	1.76	9	14	9.2	22%	24.6%	0.467
62	Hartlepool United	2.72	9	16	13.2	33%	26.0%	0.465
63	IK Start	2.46	11	17	14.6	24%	20.8%	0.465
64	SK Rapid Wien	2.83	13	27	16.8	23%	18.6%	0.464
65	Kelty Hearts	1.92	7	11	8.0	27%	25.1%	0.464
66	Sunderland	2.80	10	21	14.2	28%	26.1%	0.459
67	Carpi	1.63	6	9	6.8	28%	29.0%	0.457
68	Solihull Moors	1.92	8	12	9.9	24%	25.3%	0.451
69	FSV 63 Luckenwalde	1.40	6	10	5.4	26%	25.7%	0.448
70	United States	1.94	12	19	14.1	19%	20.3%	0.447
71	Jahn Regensburg	2.00	10	19	11.5	20%	27.5%	0.446
72	Olympique Lyonnais	2.21	12	20	15.6	20%	23.5%	0.446
73	1. FC Magdeburg II	0.67	4	4	4.0	17%	16.7%	0.444
74	Modena	2.43	8	19	11.0	36%	31.8%	0.442
75	Petrolul Ploiești	2.27	7	14	9.4	34%	22.7%	0.442
76	SS Lazio	2.96	10	25	16.3	28%	24.3%	0.439
77	VPS Vaasa	1.95	8	14	10.0	22%	23.6%	0.436
78	Atlas	2.21	8	20	10.5	30%	28.3%	0.426
79	Ranheim TF	1.92	10	17	12.7	20%	19.1%	0.425
80	RAAL La Louvière	1.02	3	6	3.2	34%	33.9%	0.421
81	Sutton United	2.16	8	19	11.0	29%	27.0%	0.418
82	HJK Helsinki	1.98	9	19	11.3	22%	20.9%	0.417
83	AD Ceuta	1.34	7	14	6.0	19%	18.6%	0.417
84	Wieczysta Kraków	0.44	4	4	3.0	11%	11.1%	0.416
85	Rio Ave	2.05	6	12	9.7	37%	30.6%	0.415
86	Aris Thessaloniki	2.59	8	22	13.2	30%	24.8%	0.414
87	Rodina Moscow	0.38	3	3	2.3	13%	12.5%	0.414
88	Bonaire	0.68	5	6	3.1	14%	13.6%	0.413
89	Montrose	2.16	10	19	14.8	24%	22.2%	0.413
90	Brighton & Hove Albion	2.32	9	23	13.3	27%	27.7%	0.412
91	Cheltenham Town	2.12	10	22	14.0	22%	26.8%	0.412
92	Degerfors IF	1.87	9	21	10.5	20%	16.0%	0.410
93	FC Zürich	1.45	11	18	12.8	14%	17.7%	0.410
94	US Sassuolo	1.55	9	16	11.2	18%	26.5%	0.407
95	Servette	2.16	7	17	10.6	30%	19.4%	0.400
96	Stabæk Fotball	2.22	10	23	15.4	21%	22.1%	0.398
97	Gateshead	1.55	9	17	11.6	18%	24.3%	0.394
98	Unión de Santa Fe	1.72	5	12	7.7	32%	34.7%	0.394
99	Neuchâtel Xamax	1.33	6	10	7.5	25%	16.9%	0.393
100	Ipswich Town	2.38	9	24	15.5	28%	25.9%	0.392

Prediction detail Ascoli Calcio

ITA · Ascoli Calcio

0.701

draw-likelihood score · rank #4

draw debt E

4.51

16 since last draw

p100 · last 100 draw rate 31%

p50 · last 50 draw rate 24%

overall draw rate 29%

recent form · draws highlighted

D W L W L L L D L L L L L L L L L L W L L W L W

23 Aug 2026 Hellas Verona 1–2 Ascoli Calcio A ITA Serie B

16 Aug 2026 Genoa CFC 4–1 Ascoli Calcio A ITA Coppa Italia

08 Aug 2026 Ascoli Calcio 3–1 Potenza H ITA Coppa Italia

02 Aug 2026 Ascoli Calcio 1–2 SS Lazio H ITL Club Friendlies

26 Jul 2026 Frosinone Calcio 1–0 Ascoli Calcio A ITL Club Friendlies

26 Apr 2026 Campobasso 0–1 Ascoli Calcio A ITA Serie C

18 Apr 2026 Ascoli Calcio 0–1 Monterosi H ITA Serie C

11 Apr 2026 Forlì 3–0 Ascoli Calcio A ITA Serie C

03 Apr 2026 Ascoli Calcio 1–2 Vis Pesaro H ITA Serie C

30 Mar 2026 SS Arezzo 2–1 Ascoli Calcio A ITA Serie C

15 Mar 2026 AS Gubbio 1910 3–1 Ascoli Calcio A ITA Serie C

09 Mar 2026 Ascoli Calcio 0–2 Ravenna H ITA Serie C

04 Mar 2026 Sambenedettese 1–0 Ascoli Calcio A ITA Serie C

28 Feb 2026 Ascoli Calcio 0–3 Carpi H ITA Serie C

22 Feb 2026 Pontedera 3–1 Ascoli Calcio A ITA Serie C

15 Feb 2026 Bra 3–1 Ascoli Calcio A ITA Serie C

12 Feb 2026 Ascoli Calcio 2–2 ASD Torres D ITA Serie C

08 Feb 2026 Pineto 3–1 Ascoli Calcio A ITA Serie C

30 Jan 2026 Ascoli Calcio 1–3 AS Livorno H ITA Serie C

25 Jan 2026 Ascoli Calcio 1–2 AC Perugia H ITA Serie C

17 Jan 2026 Juventus U23 0–1 Ascoli Calcio A ITA Serie C

09 Jan 2026 Ascoli Calcio 0–1 Ternana Calcio H ITA Serie C

03 Jan 2026 Pianese 2–4 Ascoli Calcio A ITA Serie C

21 Dec 2025 Ascoli Calcio 0–0 Campobasso D ITA Serie C

The draw predictor estimates which teams are statistically overdue a draw by blending each side's recent draw rate, its current no-draw streak and how stretched that streak is against the team's own record. The resulting draw-debt score (E = p_weighted × N) ranks candidates relative to the teams in view, so a side sitting at its record maximum reads as more overdue than one with room to spare. Use it to find draw-likely fixtures grounded in historical draw frequency.