The bookmaker's margin
The three prices usually imply more than a 100% chance between them. That excess is the overround. Enter prices from one match to see the cost under a proportional estimate of fair chances.
Your prices
Overround (margin): 4.81%
| Outcome | Implied chance | Fair chance | Fair odds | Expected return per 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 47.62% | 45.43% | 2.201 | 95.41 |
| Draw | 29.41% | 28.06% | 3.563 | 95.41 |
| Away | 27.78% | 26.50% | 3.773 | 95.41 |
You pay 4.59 per 100 before the match starts, in expectation under these fair probabilities.
Closing margins from the database
Five complete seasons per calendar: split-year editions are treated as complete after June 30, calendar-year editions after December 31. Only matches assigned to recognised dated seasons; played matches with three closing prices greater than 1. No opening-price fallback. Season bounds below are the earliest and latest start years with qualifying prices in each row; coverage may have gaps.
At the indexed run, split-year window: 2021–2025; calendar-year window: 2021–2025 (season start years).
Max means best price across bookmakers, not one bookmaker. Its overround can be negative; the quotes need not be simultaneously available.
The market average is the overround of the averaged prices, which is lower than the margin of a typical single bookmaker.
By bookmaker — all competitions
| Scope | Priced matches | Average margin | Median margin | Season start years | Computed at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best price across bookmakers | 62,017 | 0.87% | 0.96% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Market average | 62,016 | 6.53% | 6.42% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Pinnacle | 56,042 | 3.54% | 3.35% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Bet365 | 41,229 | 6.78% | 6.28% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Bwin | 35,625 | 7.41% | 7.01% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| William Hill | 27,953 | 7.79% | 7.34% | 2021–2024 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| BetVictor | 23,389 | 6.77% | 6.30% | 2021–2023 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| 1xBet | 7,681 | 4.72% | 4.85% | 2024–2024 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
By league — top 20 by market-average priced matches
| Scope | Priced matches | Average margin | Median margin | Season start years | Computed at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 2,760 | 5.43% | 5.25% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| League One | 2,760 | 6.61% | 6.59% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| League Two | 2,760 | 6.79% | 6.70% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| National League | 2,714 | 8.57% | 8.34% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| MLS | 2,543 | 5.99% | 5.90% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Segunda División | 2,310 | 7.11% | 6.72% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Liga Profesional | 1,969 | 6.38% | 6.26% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Premier League | 1,900 | 4.32% | 4.04% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Serie A | 1,900 | 4.88% | 4.57% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Serie B | 1,900 | 6.98% | 6.64% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| La Liga | 1,900 | 4.75% | 4.45% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Serie A | 1,900 | 6.06% | 5.98% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| J1 League | 1,756 | 6.49% | 6.30% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Ligue 2 | 1,751 | 7.04% | 6.76% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Süper Lig | 1,721 | 6.46% | 6.20% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Liga MX | 1,700 | 7.16% | 6.99% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Ligue 1 | 1,678 | 4.98% | 4.74% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Superliga | 1,598 | 8.10% | 7.98% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Belgian Pro League | 1,547 | 6.31% | 6.11% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
| Bundesliga | 1,530 | 4.75% | 4.41% | 2021–2025 | 2026-09-30 08:58:39 |
Source: bookmaker_margins, built by football:index:bookmaker-margins (BookmakerMarginIndexer), the final nightly football:reindex step. Each row names its run timestamp. Averages weight matches equally; bookmaker samples differ.
Method
Let S = 1/home + 1/draw + 1/away. Margin = S − 1. Proportional de-margining divides each implied chance by S, so fair odds = quoted odds × S. At those fair chances, a 100-unit bet on any one outcome returns 100/S including the stake. Expected loss is 100 × (1 − 1/S), not 100 × the overround.
What this does not claim: proportional fair probabilities are an estimate, not known true chances; this does not predict a match or prove a realised profit.
Not betting advice