▦ FDB4
NOT BET ADVICE UA ONLINE Sign in
// Elo ratings 545,236 matches rated · 14,930 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,236
Teams rated14,930
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,682 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 13.9% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,871 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,061 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,727 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,814 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,161 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,385 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,460 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,554 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.39% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,491 12.39% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,930 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
401 Arminia Bielefeld GER 1,684 1,817 1,130 2026-09-20
402 Georgia GEO 1,683 1,822 309 2026-09-28
403 Inter Miami CF USA 1,682 1,767 257 2026-09-28
404 Çaykur Rizespor TUR 1,682 1,703 756 2026-09-20
405 Club América MEX 1,680 1,779 611 2026-09-28
406 Wolfsberger AC AUT 1,680 1,847 611 2026-09-20
407 IFK Norrköping SWE 1,680 1,906 635 2026-03-27
408 SS Matera Calcio ITA 1,680 1,680 78 2019-05-05
409 EC Bahia BRA 1,680 1,728 516 2026-09-20
410 GNK Dinamo Zagreb CRO 1,680 1,849 326 2026-09-16
411 Le Mans FRA 1,680 1,758 750 2026-09-19
412 Reading ENG 1,680 1,865 2,053 2026-09-26
413 Fortaleza EC BRA 1,679 1,750 322 2026-08-05
414 IF Brommapojkarna SWE 1,679 1,723 301 2026-09-19
415 Akhmat Grozny RUS 1,679 1,762 427 2026-08-02
416 Occitania — 1,679 1,708 33 2014-12-30
417 Bolton Wanderers ENG 1,677 1,889 2,055 2026-09-20
418 Alanyaspor TUR 1,677 1,813 448 2026-09-19
419 Botafogo (RJ) BRA 1,677 1,807 562 2026-09-19
420 Royal Antwerp BEL 1,677 1,883 807 2026-09-20
421 Dunfermline Athletic SCO 1,677 1,714 1,367 2026-09-19
422 Luton Town ENG 1,677 1,855 2,008 2026-09-19
423 Shelbourne IRL 1,676 1,785 573 2026-09-25
424 Zhejiang Professional CHN 1,675 1,761 299 2026-09-18
425 SK Slavia Praha CZE 1,675 1,828 228 2026-09-10
426 VfL Osnabrück GER 1,675 1,690 761 2026-09-23
427 Santos BRA 1,674 1,750 614 2026-09-19
428 Odds BK NOR 1,674 1,994 1,618 2026-09-20
429 SJK Seinäjoki FIN 1,674 1,790 434 2026-09-18
430 US Cremonese ITA 1,673 1,716 579 2026-09-26
431 Samsunspor TUR 1,673 1,760 684 2026-09-20
432 Vélez Sarsfield ARG 1,672 1,725 523 2026-09-21
433 Oxford United ENG 1,672 1,704 1,885 2026-09-19
434 York City ENG 1,672 1,700 1,617 2026-09-26
435 Excelsior Rotterdam NED 1,672 1,677 502 2026-09-19
436 Kasımpaşa SK TUR 1,670 1,735 694 2026-09-18
437 Levadiakos GRE 1,670 1,771 645 2026-09-20
438 VPS Vaasa FIN 1,669 1,846 478 2026-09-19
439 Leicester City ENG 1,669 2,045 1,998 2026-09-19
440 Energie Cottbus GER 1,669 1,706 873 2026-09-20
441 Curaçao CUW 1,668 1,747 388 2026-06-25
442 Argentinos Juniors ARG 1,668 1,696 477 2026-09-20
443 Syria SYR 1,668 1,816 479 2026-06-05
444 Vietnam VIE 1,668 1,720 298 2026-07-18
445 Raith Rovers SCO 1,668 1,732 1,288 2026-09-25
446 LNZ Cherkasy UKR 1,668 1,709 110 2026-09-20
447 Oman OMA 1,667 1,815 543 2026-06-05
448 Yunnan Yukun CHN 1,667 1,675 67 2026-09-06
449 Tianjin Jinmen Tiger CHN 1,667 1,677 444 2026-09-12
450 Dynamo Makhachkala RUS 1,667 1,768 66 2026-08-01
page 9 / 299 ‹ prev next ›
Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

We use a session cookie to run the site and, if you allow it, Google Analytics to see which pages are used. No ads, no tracking across sites. Cookie policy