☆
· GER · 2. Bundesliga
Team ☆
all results ›
GER · Club
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
Played
544
Draw %
29.2%
No-draw N
2
Max streak
18
02 Apr 2023 → 30 Sep 2023
Avg top run
10.2
top 10
Draw debt E
0.52
p50
30.0%
p100
23.0%
Draw score
0.168
rank #940
Draws
159
Trophies
Team strength · Elo
all ratings ›
Rating
1,686
everyone starts at 1500
Peak
1,811
reached 20 Apr 2024
Rank
#320
of 14,598 clubs
Matches rated
544
last 9 Oct 2026
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 15 Oct 2026.
Recent form · draws highlighted
Luck or skill
how this is worked out ›
Over 439 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Holstein Kiel drew 124 where the draw model expected 114.9 from those particular fixtures — about 9 more, or 1.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 118.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
Longest no-draw runs
all on the records page ›
1 18
02 Apr 2023 → 30 Sep 2023
2 13
20 Oct 2024 → 18 Jan 2025
3 11
04 Aug 2017 → 21 Oct 2017
4 10
23 Jan 2022 → 10 Apr 2022
5 9
10 Apr 2026 → 29 Jul 2026
6 9
26 Apr 2025 → 30 Aug 2025
7 9
01 May 2021 → 01 Aug 2021
8 8
09 Mar 2024 → 05 May 2024
9 8
09 May 2015 → 22 Aug 2015
10 7
11 Nov 2023 → 28 Jan 2024
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 02 Apr 2023 → 30 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 20 Oct 2024 → 18 Jan 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 04 Aug 2017 → 21 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 23 Jan 2022 → 10 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 10 Apr 2026 → 29 Jul 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 26 Apr 2025 → 30 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 01 May 2021 → 01 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 09 Mar 2024 → 05 May 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 09 May 2015 → 22 Aug 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 11 Nov 2023 → 28 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
By competition (all-time)
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 279 | 78 | 28.0% | 1 | 17 |
| 3. Liga | 190 | 64 | 33.7% | 5 | 7 |
| Bundesliga | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 4 | 12 |
| DFB-Pokal | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 1 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 | 4 |
By calendar year
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31 | 8 | 25.8% | 9 |
| 2025 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 9 |
| 2024 | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 10 |
| 2023 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 18 |
| 2022 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 10 |
| 2021 | 45 | 13 | 28.9% | 9 |
| 2020 | 31 | 9 | 29.0% | 5 |
| 2019 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 6 |
| 2018 | 36 | 14 | 38.9% | 5 |
| 2017 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 11 |
| 2016 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 6 |
| 2015 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 8 |
| 2014 | 40 | 15 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 2013 | 21 | 9 | 42.9% | 5 |
| 2012 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2011 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2010 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 4 |
| 2009 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2008 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2007 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Matches
all results ›
544 matches · page 1 / 14
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Upcoming fixtures
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 16 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 16 Oct 16:30 |
Holstein Kiel
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.9% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 25 Oct 12:30 |
Holstein Kiel
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 28 Oct 19:45 |
Holstein Kiel
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.3% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 01 Nov 12:30 |
Greuther Fürth
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.2% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 07 Nov 12:00 |
Holstein Kiel
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 21 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 21 Nov 12:00 |
VfL Wolfsburg
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.2% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.