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// Elo ratings 545,244 matches rated · 14,931 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,244
Teams rated14,931
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,683 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 13.9% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,871 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,062 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,727 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,814 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,161 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,385 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,460 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,561 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.61% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.98% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.39% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,282 24.61% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,400 19.98% 0 — — —
300+ 6,491 12.39% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
9 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
10 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
11 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,931 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
451 Raków Częstochowa POL 1,666 1,905 352 2026-09-19
452 Gil Vicente POR 1,666 1,725 724 2026-09-19
453 Suriname SUR 1,666 1,717 399 2026-03-26
454 Ross County SCO 1,666 1,761 1,210 2026-09-19
455 Arouca POR 1,665 1,719 329 2026-09-19
456 SV Ried AUT 1,665 1,719 470 2026-09-20
457 Dyskobolia Grodzisk Wlkp POL 1,665 1,684 60 2008-04-30
458 Isle of Man — 1,664 1,756 58 2025-07-18
459 Qingdao West Coast CHN 1,664 1,665 103 2026-09-05
460 Kárpátalja — 1,664 1,664 11 2018-06-09
461 Spartak Yerevan ARM 1,664 1,700 41 2003-04-06
462 Philadelphia Union USA 1,663 1,699 553 2026-09-27
463 Rosario Central ARG 1,663 1,696 494 2026-09-20
464 Inverness Caledonian Thistle SCO 1,663 1,804 1,229 2026-09-25
465 UTA Arad ROU 1,662 1,686 384 2026-09-18
466 Korona Kielce POL 1,662 1,680 537 2026-09-19
467 Krylya Sovetov Samara RUS 1,662 1,731 349 2026-08-01
468 Vasco da Gama BRA 1,661 1,717 499 2026-09-20
469 St. Louis City SC USA 1,661 1,661 140 2026-09-30
470 Kalmar FF SWE 1,660 1,836 557 2026-09-20
471 Dynamo Dresden GER 1,659 1,706 882 2026-09-19
472 Henan Songshan Longmen CHN 1,659 1,694 435 2026-09-12
473 Rot-Weiss Essen GER 1,658 1,674 377 2026-09-20
474 Charlton Athletic ENG 1,658 1,796 1,884 2026-09-19
475 WSG Tirol AUT 1,658 1,711 351 2026-10-01
476 Malaysia MAS 1,658 1,718 835 2025-11-18
477 Amkar Perm RUS 1,657 1,665 184 2018-05-20
478 Egersunds IK NOR 1,657 1,739 175 2026-09-20
479 FC Tokyo JPN 1,656 1,736 556 2026-09-19
480 Karlsruher SC GER 1,655 1,796 1,176 2026-09-19
481 Montpellier HSC FRA 1,655 1,865 1,296 2026-09-18
482 Mirassol BRA 1,655 1,717 73 2026-09-19
483 Qarabağ FK AZE 1,655 1,702 134 2026-02-24
484 Waterford IRL 1,654 1,681 478 2026-09-18
485 Tromsdalen UIL NOR 1,654 1,667 613 2026-09-08
486 Independiente Rivadavia ARG 1,654 1,663 125 2026-09-21
487 Fredericia DEN 1,653 1,660 90 2026-06-27
488 Nantes FRA 1,653 1,838 1,389 2026-09-19
489 Degerfors IF SWE 1,653 1,692 248 2026-09-20
490 Palestine PLE 1,653 1,719 249 2026-06-09
491 Guadalajara Chivas MEX 1,652 1,675 529 2026-09-27
492 Lyn Fotball NOR 1,652 1,887 1,355 2026-09-20
493 Huddersfield Town ENG 1,651 1,787 1,980 2026-09-19
494 Corinthians BRA 1,651 1,768 659 2026-09-20
495 Iraqi Kurdistan — 1,651 1,678 27 2016-06-04
496 Drogheda United IRL 1,651 1,721 551 2026-10-01
497 Yverdon-Sport SUI 1,651 1,687 266 2026-07-18
498 Piast Gliwice POL 1,650 1,753 581 2026-09-20
499 Galway United IRL 1,650 1,709 307 2026-09-25
500 Yokohama F. Marinos JPN 1,649 1,827 572 2026-09-19
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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