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// Elo ratings 545,268 matches rated · 14,931 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,268
Teams rated14,931
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,707 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 13.9% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,205 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,873 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,064 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,734 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,817 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,163 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,388 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,463 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,561 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.61% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.98% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.39% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,282 24.61% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,400 19.98% 0 — — —
300+ 6,491 12.39% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
9 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
10 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
11 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,931 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
651 Seattle Sounders USA 1,603 1,694 576 2026-10-01
652 Gençlerbirliği TUR 1,603 1,800 1,099 2026-09-19
653 Preston North End ENG 1,602 1,790 2,097 2026-09-19
654 Ayr United SCO 1,602 1,766 1,227 2026-09-25
655 URS du Centre BEL 1,602 1,616 44 2010-10-27
656 Milton Keynes Dons ENG 1,602 1,727 1,131 2026-09-17
657 Benin BEN 1,602 1,648 325 2026-06-09
658 Slovan Liberec CZE 1,601 1,683 83 2026-01-19
659 Bellinzona SUI 1,601 1,660 266 2025-09-21
660 Sivasspor TUR 1,601 1,806 794 2025-12-03
661 Maccabi Haifa ISR 1,600 1,676 129 2026-07-04
662 Gabon GAB 1,600 1,745 405 2026-03-30
663 Grasshopper Club Zürich SUI 1,600 1,850 1,049 2026-09-24
664 KV Oostende BEL 1,600 1,759 534 2024-02-29
665 Chicago Fire USA 1,600 1,614 543 2026-09-27
666 Columbus Crew USA 1,600 1,720 554 2026-09-28
667 Eintracht Braunschweig GER 1,599 1,737 794 2026-09-19
668 Uganda UGA 1,599 1,779 685 2025-12-30
669 Viktoria Köln GER 1,599 1,599 250 2026-09-19
670 Cracovia POL 1,599 1,716 547 2026-09-19
671 FC Honka/Akatemia FIN 1,598 1,610 13 2023-06-21
672 Qatar QAT 1,598 1,991 638 2026-06-24
673 Pumas UNAM MEX 1,598 1,646 531 2026-09-27
674 Atlantis FC FIN 1,598 1,600 37 2025-04-15
675 Chemnitzer GER 1,597 1,597 580 2026-09-26
676 Gamba Osaka JPN 1,597 1,774 551 2026-09-20
677 Alverca POR 1,597 1,621 219 2026-09-19
678 Halmstads BK SWE 1,596 1,709 415 2026-09-20
679 Slaven Belupo CRO 1,596 1,596 20 2012-09-09
680 Guernsey — 1,596 1,760 240 2023-07-13
681 Hamilton Academical SCO 1,596 1,756 1,270 2026-09-19
682 Metalul Buzău ROU 1,595 1,595 25 2026-08-12
683 SV Stripfing AUT 1,595 1,607 13 2025-10-28
684 TP-47 FIN 1,595 1,620 31 2022-05-03
685 Wisła Płock POL 1,595 1,675 398 2026-10-02
686 Ceará SC BRA 1,595 1,685 294 2026-05-13
687 Togo TOG 1,595 1,763 447 2026-06-09
688 Tigres UANL MEX 1,594 1,706 582 2026-09-27
689 APOEL Nicosia CYP 1,594 1,731 192 2026-08-22
690 Lechia Gdańsk POL 1,592 1,733 551 2026-07-18
691 Dominican Republic DOM 1,592 1,670 159 2026-06-03
692 Kolding IF DEN 1,592 1,638 50 2026-10-02
693 Chievo Verona ITA 1,592 1,800 945 2021-05-10
694 Lokomotiva Zagreb CRO 1,592 1,601 14 2016-10-04
695 SC Verl GER 1,591 1,666 277 2026-09-18
696 AC Horsens DEN 1,591 1,659 312 2026-10-02
697 Charlotte USA 1,591 1,627 183 2026-09-27
698 PEC Zwolle NED 1,591 1,733 573 2026-09-18
699 EC Vitória BRA 1,591 1,655 350 2026-09-20
700 Arbroath SCO 1,590 1,707 1,152 2026-09-25
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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