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// Elo ratings 545,268 matches rated · 14,931 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,268
Teams rated14,931
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,707 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 13.9% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,205 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,873 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,064 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,734 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,817 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,163 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,388 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,463 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,561 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.61% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.98% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.39% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,282 24.61% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,400 19.98% 0 — — —
300+ 6,491 12.39% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
9 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
10 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
11 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,931 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
601 Annecy FRA 1,615 1,642 165 2026-09-18
602 Stade Lausanne Ouchy SUI 1,615 1,617 80 2026-09-24
603 Zambia ZAM 1,615 1,841 793 2026-03-31
604 TPS Turku FIN 1,615 1,673 294 2026-09-19
605 Racing Club ARG 1,614 1,734 539 2026-09-27
606 Instituto de Córdoba ARG 1,614 1,614 164 2026-09-20
607 SC Weiche Flensburg 08 GER 1,614 1,653 37 2021-08-07
608 PFC Ludogorets Razgrad BUL 1,614 1,699 107 2026-09-27
609 Ural Yekaterinburg RUS 1,614 1,712 336 2026-02-20
610 Sigma Olomouc CZE 1,613 1,622 56 2026-03-19
611 Los Angeles FC USA 1,613 1,731 340 2026-09-27
612 Tamil Eelam — 1,613 1,613 28 2025-07-04
613 Watford ENG 1,613 1,905 1,991 2026-09-18
614 Blackpool ENG 1,613 1,783 1,972 2026-09-19
615 AC Oulu FIN 1,612 1,718 211 2026-09-18
616 Kocaelispor TUR 1,612 1,671 488 2026-09-19
617 Oxford University ENG 1,612 1,620 41 1880-04-10
618 Gambia GAM 1,612 1,646 266 2026-05-29
619 Kharkiv UKR 1,612 1,612 20 2026-09-19
620 Hamburger SV II GER 1,612 1,612 34 2018-05-13
621 Keio University JPN 1,611 1,611 18 1953-05-05
622 K. FC Winterslag BEL 1,611 1,611 61 1983-08-28
623 Dundalk IRL 1,611 1,933 812 2026-09-18
624 Club Atlético Huracán ARG 1,610 1,670 423 2026-09-19
625 Granada CF ESP 1,610 1,886 700 2026-09-26
626 AC Omonia Nicosia CYP 1,610 1,651 179 2026-09-16
627 FC Lausanne-Sport SUI 1,610 1,812 785 2026-09-20
628 Internacional BRA 1,610 1,788 597 2026-09-20
629 Desna Chernihiv UKR 1,610 1,728 166 2021-12-10
630 Kolos Kovalivka UKR 1,610 1,672 217 2026-09-20
631 Libya LBY 1,609 1,762 384 2026-03-31
632 CF Pachuca MEX 1,609 1,723 554 2026-09-27
633 FC Zorya Luhansk UKR 1,608 1,823 455 2026-09-28
634 Esbjerg fB DEN 1,608 1,695 352 2026-01-23
635 Albacete Balompié ESP 1,608 1,701 1,196 2026-09-25
636 Racing Fondi ITA 1,608 1,621 36 2018-05-06
637 Biel-Bienne SUI 1,608 1,627 248 2025-08-16
638 CD Leganés ESP 1,607 1,825 875 2026-09-28
639 Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe ROU 1,607 1,749 353 2026-09-18
640 Indonesia IDN 1,607 1,713 728 2026-06-09
641 Vibonese ITA 1,606 1,606 130 2022-04-24
642 New Caledonia NCL 1,606 1,707 264 2026-03-26
643 Estudiantes de La Plata ARG 1,606 1,732 541 2026-10-01
644 Burton Albion ENG 1,605 1,687 1,090 2026-09-26
645 Panetolikos GRE 1,605 1,638 615 2026-09-20
646 Corvinul Hunedoara ROU 1,605 1,624 76 2026-09-21
647 Finland FIN 1,605 1,794 819 2026-09-29
648 Urawa Red Diamonds JPN 1,604 1,829 580 2026-09-19
649 Sporting West Harelbeke BEL 1,603 1,603 17 2016-08-28
650 Cerezo Osaka JPN 1,603 1,762 503 2026-09-19
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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