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// Elo ratings 545,320 matches rated · 14,933 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,320
Teams rated14,933
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,749 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,208 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,874 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,069 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,742 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,823 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,166 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,394 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,473 13.96% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,571 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.85% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.60% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.97% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.99% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.39% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,102 26.85% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,284 24.60% 0 — — —
150–199 6,429 22.97% 0 — — —
200–299 8,403 19.99% 0 — — —
300+ 6,491 12.39% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,136 2,209 2026-10-02
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 BEL · Belgium 2,038 2,175 2026-10-02
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 ITA · Italy 1,937 2,095 2026-10-02
20 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
21 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,933 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
701 Khimki RUS 1,590 1,672 122 2025-05-24
702 SV Mattersburg AUT 1,589 1,724 298 2020-07-04
703 White Star Woluwé FC BEL 1,589 1,604 30 2012-09-26
704 Motor Lublin POL 1,589 1,638 126 2026-09-19
705 Aarhus Fremad DEN 1,589 1,632 36 2026-07-17
706 Club Tijuana MEX 1,589 1,636 506 2026-09-26
707 GD Estoril Praia POR 1,589 1,740 438 2026-09-20
708 PFC Sochi RUS 1,589 1,832 182 2026-05-17
709 Kuban Krasnodar RUS 1,589 1,739 132 2016-05-27
710 FC Hermannstadt ROU 1,588 1,704 313 2026-06-01
711 P-Iirot FIN 1,588 1,611 39 2025-04-16
712 Radomiak Radom POL 1,588 1,662 241 2026-09-20
713 Torreense POR 1,588 1,588 14 2026-09-17
714 Botev Plovdiv BUL 1,588 1,601 54 2017-09-09
715 Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS 1,588 1,692 159 2026-09-27
716 K. Beeringen FC BEL 1,587 1,592 17 1973-02-25
717 FC Vestsjælland DEN 1,587 1,598 82 2015-09-23
718 RKC Waalwijk NED 1,587 1,671 860 2026-08-02
719 FC Inter 2 FIN 1,587 1,609 16 2024-06-15
720 Salford City ENG 1,587 1,603 402 2026-09-26
721 Barnsley ENG 1,587 1,800 1,998 2026-09-19
722 Kifisia GRE 1,587 1,604 109 2026-09-19
723 USD Akragas ITA 1,587 1,587 37 2018-04-29
724 Kayserispor TUR 1,587 1,789 955 2026-05-17
725 Rio Ave POR 1,586 1,704 831 2026-09-19
726 NK Domžale SVN 1,586 1,601 46 2019-09-09
727 VSG Altglienicke GER 1,585 1,601 83 2026-09-25
728 Skive IK DEN 1,585 1,619 39 2025-09-02
729 Leyton Orient ENG 1,585 1,703 1,950 2026-09-19
730 RUS Givry BEL 1,585 1,592 42 2018-08-26
731 Tampere United/2 FIN 1,585 1,585 12 2025-04-16
732 Eyüpspor TUR 1,585 1,676 132 2026-09-20
733 Calcio Foggia ITA 1,585 1,650 418 2026-04-26
734 NK Osijek CRO 1,584 1,621 36 2019-09-09
735 Andorra ESP 1,584 1,660 149 2026-09-26
736 Trinidad and Tobago TRI 1,584 1,829 753 2026-06-09
737 Hobro IK DEN 1,584 1,610 212 2026-07-04
738 Antalyaspor TUR 1,584 1,767 1,039 2026-05-17
739 Ciudad de Murcia ESP 1,584 1,611 168 2007-06-16
740 Asteras Tripolis GRE 1,584 1,777 729 2026-09-20
741 Trapani Calcio ITA 1,584 1,664 370 2026-04-26
742 Wanderers ENG 1,584 1,644 30 1880-01-24
743 IFK Värnamo SWE 1,584 1,760 186 2026-03-07
744 HŠK Zrinjski Mostar BIH 1,584 1,602 54 2026-09-27
745 Győri ETO HUN 1,584 1,591 62 2025-10-04
746 Nicaragua NCA 1,583 1,691 222 2026-06-05
747 Mozambique MOZ 1,583 1,672 375 2026-06-09
748 Arameans Suryoye — 1,583 1,591 10 2014-06-08
749 CE Sabadell ESP 1,583 1,584 233 2026-09-26
750 Doncaster Rovers ENG 1,583 1,733 1,660 2026-09-19
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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