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// Elo ratings 545,248 matches rated · 14,931 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,248
Teams rated14,931
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,687 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 13.9% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,871 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,063 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,728 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,815 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,161 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,386 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,460 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,561 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.61% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.98% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.39% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,282 24.61% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,400 19.98% 0 — — —
300+ 6,491 12.39% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
9 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
10 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
11 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,931 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
551 Widzew Łódź POL 1,628 1,663 381 2026-09-26
552 Wycombe Wanderers ENG 1,628 1,767 1,733 2026-09-26
553 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata ARG 1,628 1,644 487 2026-09-19
554 Sparta Rotterdam NED 1,628 1,780 865 2026-09-19
555 China PR CHN 1,628 1,897 702 2026-06-09
556 Urartu ARM 1,628 1,796 836 2026-05-27
557 Guinea GUI 1,628 1,789 539 2026-06-04
558 Hellas Verona ITA 1,628 1,819 1,069 2026-09-20
559 Gaziantep FK TUR 1,627 1,744 358 2026-09-19
560 FC Dallas USA 1,627 1,652 556 2026-09-27
561 Lyngby BK DEN 1,627 1,723 329 2026-09-18
562 AO Chalkidona GRE 1,627 1,675 97 2005-05-25
563 Zanzibar — 1,626 1,636 209 2025-01-13
564 Club Atlético Independiente ARG 1,626 1,700 497 2026-09-19
565 Fatih Karagümrük TUR 1,626 1,752 262 2026-05-16
566 Maccabi Tel Aviv ISR 1,626 1,739 162 2025-10-20
567 SC Telstar NED 1,625 1,664 83 2026-09-20
568 AS Trenčín SVK 1,625 1,640 22 2018-11-04
569 Moreirense POR 1,625 1,700 529 2026-09-20
570 MKE Ankaragücü TUR 1,624 1,711 980 2025-09-03
571 FC Argeș Pitești ROU 1,624 1,669 338 2026-09-30
572 Alemannia Aachen GER 1,623 1,706 594 2026-10-01
573 Boreham Wood ENG 1,623 1,623 504 2026-09-29
574 Kyoto Sanga JPN 1,622 1,720 203 2026-09-19
575 Paphos CYP 1,622 1,622 18 2026-01-28
576 Östers IF SWE 1,621 1,662 195 2026-07-10
577 Rodez AF FRA 1,620 1,672 274 2026-09-18
578 KV Mechelen BEL 1,620 1,756 937 2026-09-19
579 IL Hødd NOR 1,620 1,727 1,000 2026-09-20
580 Blau-Weiß Linz AUT 1,620 1,689 156 2026-07-24
581 Akron Togliatti RUS 1,620 1,746 72 2026-08-01
582 FC Botoșani ROU 1,620 1,724 552 2026-09-19
583 Red Star FRA 1,619 1,619 325 2026-09-19
584 Bodrum FK TUR 1,619 1,619 62 2025-12-03
585 FC Zürich SUI 1,619 1,889 979 2026-09-25
586 Club Atlético Lanús ARG 1,618 1,693 520 2026-09-22
587 Guadeloupe — 1,618 1,728 271 2025-06-24
588 County of Nice — 1,618 1,666 9 2015-06-21
589 BATE Borisov BLR 1,618 1,692 116 2019-11-04
590 Guyana GUY 1,617 1,712 313 2026-03-30
591 North Macedonia MKD 1,617 1,758 308 2026-09-29
592 Apollon Limassol CYP 1,617 1,716 112 2026-08-22
593 Fortuna Düsseldorf GER 1,617 1,855 868 2026-09-19
594 SK VÖEST Linz AUT 1,617 1,676 106 1996-11-02
595 Ufa RUS 1,617 1,703 252 2022-05-28
596 Abkhazia — 1,617 1,652 33 2019-06-08
597 Bahrain BHR 1,617 1,795 584 2026-06-05
598 AaB DEN 1,616 1,807 543 2026-07-17
599 Kotayk ARM 1,616 1,661 173 2016-09-22
600 Cercle Brugge BEL 1,616 1,779 908 2026-09-19
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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