☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
Team ☆
all results ›
POR · Club
Alverca
FC Alverca
Played
220
Draw %
22.7%
No-draw N
4
Max streak
14
01 Oct 2000 → 28 Jan 2001
Avg top run
8.9
top 10
Draw debt E
0.90
p50
26.0%
p100
20.0%
Draw score
0.257
rank #543
Draws
50
Team strength · Elo
all ratings ›
Rating
1,624
everyone starts at 1500
Peak
1,624
reached 12 Oct 2026
Rank
#465
of 14,598 clubs
Matches rated
220
last 12 Oct 2026
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 15 Oct 2026.
Recent form · draws highlighted
Luck or skill
how this is worked out ›
Over 220 matches (Aug 1998 – Oct 2026), Alverca drew 50 where the draw model expected 56.3 from those particular fixtures — about 6 fewer, or 1.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 55.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
Longest no-draw runs
all on the records page ›
1 14
01 Oct 2000 → 28 Jan 2001
2 13
02 Oct 1999 → 23 Jan 2000
3 10
07 Mar 2004 → 09 May 2004
4 10
21 Feb 1999 → 16 May 1999
5 8
29 Nov 2025 → 25 Jan 2026
6 8
27 May 2001 → 30 Sep 2001
7 7
21 Sep 2003 → 09 Nov 2003
8 7
26 Jan 2002 → 10 Mar 2002
9 6
22 Mar 2026 → 02 May 2026
10 6
19 Mar 2000 → 22 Apr 2000
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 01 Oct 2000 → 28 Jan 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 02 Oct 1999 → 23 Jan 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 07 Mar 2004 → 09 May 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 21 Feb 1999 → 16 May 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 29 Nov 2025 → 25 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 27 May 2001 → 30 Sep 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 21 Sep 2003 → 09 Nov 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 26 Jan 2002 → 10 Mar 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 22 Mar 2026 → 02 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 19 Mar 2000 → 22 Apr 2000 | ▸ matches |
By competition (all-time)
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 212 | 48 | 22.6% | 4 | 14 |
| Taça de Portugal | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
By calendar year
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28 | 9 | 32.1% | 6 |
| 2025 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 5 |
| 2024 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2004 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 10 |
| 2003 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 7 |
| 2002 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 7 |
| 2001 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 8 |
| 2000 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 10 |
| 1999 | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 10 |
| 1998 | 16 | 8 | 50.0% | 3 |
Matches
all results ›
220 matches · page 1 / 6
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Upcoming fixtures
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 18 Oct 14:00 |
CD Tondela
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.2% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 24 Oct 17:00 |
Alverca
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Mon, 02 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 02 Nov 20:15 |
SL Benfica
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 13.1% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 07 Nov 18:00 |
Alverca
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.