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// Elo ratings 545,342 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,342
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,771 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,208 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,877 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,070 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,743 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,827 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,167 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,400 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,479 13.96% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,571 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.85% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.60% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.97% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.99% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.39% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,102 26.85% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,284 24.60% 0 — — —
150–199 6,429 22.97% 0 — — —
200–299 8,403 19.99% 0 — — —
300+ 6,491 12.39% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,136 2,209 2026-10-02
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 BEL · Belgium 2,038 2,175 2026-10-02
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 ITA · Italy 1,937 2,095 2026-10-02
20 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
21 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,934 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
801 Notts County ENG 1,574 1,696 2,031 2026-09-19
802 Pisa SC ITA 1,574 1,674 512 2026-10-03
803 Víkingur Reykjavík ISL 1,574 1,581 24 2025-09-09
804 Hajduk Split CRO 1,574 1,656 207 2025-09-09
805 Rhodes — 1,574 1,606 18 2011-06-27
806 Vanløse IF DEN 1,573 1,585 31 2025-09-02
807 ÅIFK FIN 1,573 1,573 24 2025-04-17
808 SC Farense POR 1,573 1,592 394 2026-09-20
809 Modena ITA 1,573 1,696 892 2026-09-20
810 Coritiba BRA 1,573 1,603 414 2026-09-20
811 Kjelsås Fotball NOR 1,573 1,648 240 2026-09-16
812 TuPS FIN 1,573 1,601 22 2025-03-29
813 PK-35 FIN 1,573 1,573 7 2025-06-10
814 Chongqing Tonglianglong CHN 1,573 1,618 37 2026-09-06
815 CD Tenerife ESP 1,573 1,699 1,296 2026-09-26
816 Philippines PHI 1,573 1,637 342 2026-06-09
817 Clube de Regatas Brasil BRA 1,573 1,577 55 2026-05-14
818 V&V Overpelt-Fabriek BEL 1,572 1,572 59 2017-08-26
819 Royal Excel Mouscron BEL 1,572 1,717 604 2021-10-26
820 Greifswalder FC GER 1,572 1,590 81 2026-09-25
821 Gozzano ITA 1,572 1,599 53 2026-08-12
822 Portovyk Illichivsk UKR 1,572 1,572 17 2001-09-16
823 Bnei Yehuda ISR 1,572 1,583 30 2019-11-04
824 Córdoba CF ESP 1,571 1,659 882 2026-09-27
825 Club Atlético Tigre ARG 1,571 1,650 439 2026-09-21
826 Hapoel Be'er Sheva ISR 1,571 1,611 55 2026-09-16
827 Nykøbing FC DEN 1,571 1,611 31 2025-08-05
828 Sūduva Marijampolė LTU 1,571 1,594 48 2019-11-04
829 IK Brage SWE 1,571 1,608 75 2026-03-28
830 Fakel Voronezh RUS 1,571 1,715 98 2026-08-02
831 Metalurh Donetsk UKR 1,570 1,673 84 2014-08-23
832 KäPa FIN 1,570 1,573 26 2025-04-15
833 Hazovyk-Khurtovyna Komarno UKR 1,570 1,575 24 1998-10-06
834 Artsakh — 1,570 1,570 11 2019-06-08
835 Herfølge BK DEN 1,570 1,570 7 2008-09-27
836 Niger NIG 1,570 1,612 260 2026-06-08
837 Berliner FC Dynamo GER 1,570 1,629 146 2026-09-25
838 Hradec Králové CZE 1,570 1,570 10 1995-11-02
839 Dalian Shide CHN 1,570 1,655 66 2012-07-19
840 Skënderbeu Korçë ALB 1,570 1,587 22 2017-11-04
841 Basque Country — 1,570 1,661 64 2025-11-15
842 1. FC Saarbrücken GER 1,569 1,655 620 2026-10-02
843 Levanger FK NOR 1,569 1,676 211 2026-09-16
844 Paksi FC HUN 1,569 1,581 12 2025-09-09
845 HB Køge DEN 1,569 1,622 46 2025-07-29
846 SC Untersiebenbrunn AUT 1,569 1,610 32 2004-09-28
847 K. SV Waregem BEL 1,569 1,662 68 1999-12-19
848 El Salvador SLV 1,569 1,789 614 2026-06-06
849 CF Estrela da Amadora POR 1,569 1,609 521 2026-09-20
850 Old Etonians ENG 1,569 1,672 58 1887-12-17
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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