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// Elo ratings 545,355 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,355
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,784 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,209 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,879 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,072 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,744 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,828 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,168 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,404 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,480 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,571 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.85% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.60% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.97% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.99% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.39% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,102 26.85% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,284 24.60% 0 — — —
150–199 6,429 22.97% 0 — — —
200–299 8,403 19.99% 0 — — —
300+ 6,491 12.39% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,136 2,209 2026-10-02
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 BEL · Belgium 2,038 2,175 2026-10-02
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 ITA · Italy 1,937 2,095 2026-10-02
20 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
21 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,934 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
851 SV Braunau AUT 1,569 1,588 30 2001-10-16
852 Rot-Weiß Erfurt GER 1,569 1,569 502 2026-09-26
853 Dinamo Tbilisi GEO 1,569 1,664 145 2019-10-04
854 Old Foresters ENG 1,568 1,587 28 1888-01-07
855 FK Jablonec CZE 1,568 1,584 36 2021-12-09
856 Astra Giurgiu ROU 1,568 1,793 421 2022-08-31
857 FC Bleid BEL 1,568 1,577 15 2008-08-16
858 AC Kajaani FIN 1,568 1,568 8 2016-04-21
859 Venus București ROU 1,568 1,646 40 1943-05-11
860 Hakoah Wien AUT 1,568 1,590 7 1920-06-16
861 Slatina ROU 1,567 1,567 18 2026-10-03
862 Aliağa TUR 1,567 1,567 8 2025-12-03
863 NK Veres Rivne UKR 1,567 1,620 240 2026-10-03
864 RAAL La Louvière BEL 1,567 1,611 61 2026-10-02
865 Vojvodina Novi Sad SRB 1,567 1,628 84 2026-09-27
866 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo JPN 1,567 1,670 356 2025-06-18
867 FC Kärnten AUT 1,567 1,625 114 2008-08-15
868 Belarus BLR 1,567 1,723 317 2026-09-29
869 Panjab — 1,567 1,601 19 2019-12-29
870 Landskrona BoIS SWE 1,567 1,590 99 2026-03-07
871 Zürich U-21 SUI 1,567 1,587 11 2002-11-09
872 Ruch II Chorzów POL 1,567 1,567 10 1993-06-23
873 Royal Mouscron-Péruwelz BEL 1,567 1,613 78 2016-03-13
874 Racing Club Brussel BEL 1,567 1,607 17 1954-04-04
875 Preußen Münster GER 1,567 1,665 507 2026-09-20
876 Shenzhen Xinpengcheng CHN 1,567 1,567 111 2026-09-05
877 Wacker Innsbruck AUT 1,567 1,734 405 2026-10-02
878 Alta IF NOR 1,566 1,651 390 2026-09-16
879 Hapoel Tel Aviv ISR 1,566 1,703 106 2014-08-19
880 Quebec — 1,566 1,597 3 2013-06-27
881 San Jose Earthquakes USA 1,566 1,624 535 2026-09-27
882 RRC Wetteren-Kwatrecht BEL 1,566 1,568 17 2016-08-21
883 Haka FIN 1,566 1,744 371 2025-10-18
884 Fehérvár FC HUN 1,566 1,597 74 2019-09-09
885 UR Namur BEL 1,566 1,597 84 2018-08-12
886 Dinamo II București ROU 1,566 1,575 11 2016-10-26
887 Operário Ferroviário Esporte Clube BRA 1,566 1,570 22 2026-05-12
888 Progresul București ROU 1,565 1,610 137 2007-09-25
889 Germinal Beerschot Antwerpen BEL 1,565 1,589 26 2008-04-16
890 Gilla FC FIN 1,565 1,567 6 2025-04-20
891 AD Ceuta ESP 1,565 1,608 64 2026-09-26
892 RiPS FIN 1,565 1,565 20 2025-04-09
893 Querétaro MEX 1,565 1,565 493 2026-09-27
894 Al Ahly EGY 1,565 1,573 30 2025-06-23
895 NoPS FIN 1,565 1,589 19 2025-04-17
896 Real Sociedad B ESP 1,565 1,645 91 2026-09-26
897 Bromley ENG 1,564 1,640 546 2026-09-19
898 Töölön Taisto FIN 1,564 1,586 23 2026-02-21
899 Real Valladolid ESP 1,564 1,799 1,395 2026-09-27
900 Vantaan Jalkapalloseura FIN 1,564 1,583 17 2025-04-15
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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