☆
· NED · Eredivisie
Team ☆
all results ›
NED · Club
Excelsior Rotterdam
Excelsior Rotterdam
Played
503
Draw %
22.7%
No-draw N
1
Max streak
14
15 Feb 2003 → 17 May 2003
Avg top run
11.1
top 10
Draw debt E
0.26
p50
24.0%
p100
28.0%
Draw score
0.120
rank #1,349
Draws
114
Team strength · Elo
all ratings ›
Rating
1,651
everyone starts at 1500
Peak
1,677
reached 8 Sep 2026
Rank
#405
of 14,598 clubs
Matches rated
503
last 11 Oct 2026
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 14 Oct 2026.
Recent form · draws highlighted
Luck or skill
how this is worked out ›
Over 296 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Excelsior Rotterdam drew 72 where the draw model expected 62.3 from those particular fixtures — about 10 more, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 67.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
Longest no-draw runs
all on the records page ›
1 14
15 Feb 2003 → 17 May 2003
2 12
16 Oct 2022 → 29 Jan 2023
3 12
24 Nov 2007 → 26 Jan 2008
4 12
17 Mar 2007 → 26 Sep 2007
5 12
18 Nov 2006 → 09 Feb 2007
6 11
02 Aug 2025 → 26 Oct 2025
7 10
26 Feb 2012 → 28 Apr 2012
8 10
23 Jan 2011 → 02 Apr 2011
9 9
17 May 2026 → 05 Sep 2026
10 9
20 Sep 2016 → 19 Nov 2016
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 15 Feb 2003 → 17 May 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 16 Oct 2022 → 29 Jan 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 24 Nov 2007 → 26 Jan 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 17 Mar 2007 → 26 Sep 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 18 Nov 2006 → 09 Feb 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 02 Aug 2025 → 26 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 26 Feb 2012 → 28 Apr 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 23 Jan 2011 → 02 Apr 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 17 May 2026 → 05 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 20 Sep 2016 → 19 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
By competition (all-time)
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eredivisie | 450 | 104 | 23.1% | 1 | 14 |
| KNVB Cup | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 0 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
By calendar year
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 9 | 30.0% | 9 |
| 2025 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 11 |
| 2024 | 21 | 3 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2023 | 39 | 14 | 35.9% | 6 |
| 2022 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | 8 |
| 2021 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2020 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2019 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 7 |
| 2018 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 7 |
| 2017 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 8 |
| 2016 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 9 |
| 2015 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 5 |
| 2014 | 20 | 8 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 2013 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2012 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 10 |
| 2011 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 10 |
| 2010 | 21 | 4 | 19.1% | 6 |
| 2009 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2008 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 2007 | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 12 |
| 2006 | 22 | 4 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 2003 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 14 |
| 2002 | 17 | 6 | 35.3% | 5 |
Matches
all results ›
503 matches · page 1 / 13
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Upcoming fixtures
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 16 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 16 Oct 18:00 |
SC Heerenveen
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 25 Oct 11:15 |
Fortuna Sittard
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 28 Oct 19:00 |
MVV Maastricht
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 16.3% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 01 Nov 13:30 |
Excelsior Rotterdam
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.6% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 07 Nov 20:00 |
Excelsior Rotterdam
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Sat, 21 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 21 Nov 17:45 |
Feyenoord
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 11.2% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.