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// Elo ratings 545,188 matches rated · 14,929 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,188
Teams rated14,929
Evenly matched draw 26.06% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.47% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,635 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 26.06% 26.1% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 24.92% 24.9% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.90% 75–99 — drew 23.63% 23.6% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.94% 100–149 — drew 24.49% 24.5% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.27% 150–199 — drew 23.18% 23.2% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.34% 200–299 — drew 20.07% 20.1% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.05% 300+ — drew 13.47% 13.5% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,202 26.06% 22,135 29.31% 28.79% -1.32%
25–49 72,424 24.92% 21,804 28.79% 28.66% -2.65%
50–74 78,900 23.11% 20,470 28.21% 28.34% -3.41%
75–99 64,625 23.63% 18,577 28.21% 27.90% -2.02%
100–149 86,857 24.49% 29,709 26.90% 26.94% -3.20%
150–199 53,219 23.18% 20,283 25.45% 25.27% -2.70%
200–299 49,713 20.07% 19,156 21.90% 22.34% -5.33%
300+ 22,695 13.47% 8,735 14.49% 16.05% -12.98%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,323 2,336 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,260 2,337 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,252 2,300 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,221 2,245 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,160 2,237 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,148 2,245 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,132 2,203 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,124 2,147 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,110 2,110 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,104 2,292 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,099 2,123 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,078 2,168 2026-09-19
13 ENG · Brentford 2,074 2,074 2026-09-18
14 NOR · Viking FK 2,073 2,098 2026-09-20
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,071 2,157 2026-09-20
16 POR · Sporting CP 2,069 2,143 2026-09-19
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,066 2,196 2026-09-20
18 ENG · Bournemouth 2,064 2,079 2026-09-20
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,053 2,136 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,036 2,040 2026-09-20
21 ENG · Chelsea 2,033 2,198 2026-09-18
22 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,031 2,043 2026-09-20
23 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,031 2,057 2026-09-25
24 ITA · AS Roma 2,028 2,072 2026-09-19
25 POR · SL Benfica 2,027 2,073 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,020 2,138 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,017 2,089 2026-09-20
28 ENG · Everton 2,013 2,015 2026-09-19
29 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,011 2,013 2026-09-27
30 ITA · Juventus 2,010 2,204 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,593 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
51 Krasnodar RUS 1,948 1,956 495 2026-08-02
52 Heart of Midlothian SCO 1,947 1,966 1,445 2026-09-19
53 Rosenborg BK NOR 1,944 2,073 2,153 2026-09-19
54 Tromsø IL NOR 1,941 1,979 1,370 2026-09-20
55 AEK Athens GRE 1,935 1,961 1,633 2026-09-20
56 Lille OSC FRA 1,932 2,031 1,445 2026-09-20
57 Mainz 05 GER 1,930 1,981 1,224 2026-09-19
58 Villarreal CF ESP 1,929 2,066 1,474 2026-09-20
59 Sunderland ENG 1,929 1,932 1,958 2026-09-20
60 Hammarby IF SWE 1,929 1,938 507 2026-09-20
61 FC København DEN 1,928 1,975 787 2026-09-20
62 Fenerbahce TUR 1,926 1,990 1,691 2026-09-20
63 SS Lazio ITA 1,922 2,033 1,552 2026-09-27
64 Olympiacos Piraeus GRE 1,919 2,041 1,842 2026-09-20
65 Molde FK NOR 1,917 2,081 1,751 2026-09-19
66 Stade Rennais FRA 1,914 1,969 1,338 2026-09-19
67 SK Brann NOR 1,912 2,018 2,155 2026-09-20
68 Galatasaray SK TUR 1,902 2,065 1,764 2026-09-19
69 PAOK Thessaloniki GRE 1,902 1,967 1,656 2026-09-20
70 Shakhtar Donetsk UKR 1,901 2,040 792 2026-09-20
71 LASK AUT 1,899 1,982 592 2026-09-20
72 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim GER 1,898 1,994 745 2026-09-20
73 Rayo Vallecano ESP 1,897 1,918 1,220 2026-09-19
74 AZ Alkmaar NED 1,896 1,929 1,289 2026-09-20
75 Djurgårdens IF SWE 1,894 1,937 662 2026-09-20
76 IK Sirius SWE 1,893 1,935 386 2026-09-19
77 Feyenoord NED 1,892 2,036 1,582 2026-09-20
78 Augsburg GER 1,889 1,899 755 2026-09-19
79 Lugano SUI 1,886 1,886 772 2026-09-20
80 Southampton ENG 1,885 1,981 1,994 2026-09-19
81 Eintracht Frankfurt GER 1,883 2,024 1,408 2026-09-19
82 Real Sociedad ESP 1,880 2,051 1,501 2026-09-20
83 Panathinaikos GRE 1,878 1,980 1,779 2026-09-20
84 SC Braga POR 1,876 1,931 1,292 2026-09-20
85 Lillestrøm SK NOR 1,875 1,972 1,951 2026-09-20
86 Fredrikstad FK NOR 1,875 1,929 1,681 2026-09-20
87 Coventry City ENG 1,873 1,898 1,908 2026-09-19
88 Wolverhampton Wanderers ENG 1,872 1,998 2,090 2026-09-20
89 Athletic Bilbao ESP 1,870 2,058 1,602 2026-09-19
90 Flamengo (RJ) BRA 1,870 1,894 679 2026-09-20
91 Ipswich Town ENG 1,869 1,896 1,984 2026-09-19
92 Celta Vigo ESP 1,868 1,968 1,463 2026-09-19
93 Red Bull Salzburg AUT 1,864 2,095 883 2026-09-20
94 FC Nordsjælland DEN 1,864 1,895 575 2026-09-20
95 Twente NED 1,863 1,912 1,302 2026-09-20
96 Deportivo Alavés ESP 1,861 1,883 1,113 2026-09-19
97 RC Strasbourg FRA 1,860 1,953 1,119 2026-09-19
98 CS Universitatea Craiova ROU 1,857 1,864 753 2026-09-19
99 Sion SUI 1,857 1,876 865 2026-09-24
100 Olympique de Marseille FRA 1,857 2,006 1,490 2026-09-20
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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