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// Elo ratings 545,217 matches rated · 14,929 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,217
Teams rated14,929
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,664 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,870 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,056 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,725 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,812 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,160 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,382 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,456 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,120 2,143 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,071 2,097 2026-09-20
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
25 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,016 2,050 2026-09-25
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,929 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
51 PSV Eindhoven NED 1,978 2,089 1,656 2026-09-20
52 Olympique Lyonnais FRA 1,973 2,051 1,598 2026-09-19
53 Crystal Palace ENG 1,971 2,100 1,971 2026-09-20
54 RC Lens FRA 1,970 2,009 1,363 2026-09-18
55 RB Leipzig GER 1,970 2,145 598 2026-09-20
56 Club Brugge KV BEL 1,968 2,023 1,620 2026-09-20
57 Fulham ENG 1,968 2,004 1,946 2026-09-20
58 SSC Napoli ITA 1,965 2,167 1,496 2026-09-20
59 AS Monaco FRA 1,960 2,044 1,522 2026-09-18
60 AC Milan ITA 1,959 2,071 1,781 2026-09-20
61 Germany GER 1,957 2,254 1,037 2026-09-27
62 Croatia CRO 1,955 2,036 402 2026-09-29
63 Celtic SCO 1,953 2,125 1,789 2026-09-20
64 Nigeria NGA 1,950 1,961 661 2026-06-10
65 Australia AUS 1,949 2,002 585 2026-07-03
66 Krasnodar RUS 1,946 1,955 495 2026-08-02
67 Atalanta BC ITA 1,945 2,108 1,378 2026-09-20
68 West Ham United ENG 1,944 2,066 1,994 2026-09-19
69 Heart of Midlothian SCO 1,944 1,963 1,445 2026-09-19
70 Rosenborg BK NOR 1,942 2,072 2,153 2026-09-19
71 Tottenham Hotspur ENG 1,942 2,136 2,267 2026-09-19
72 Tromsø IL NOR 1,939 1,978 1,370 2026-09-20
73 Iran IRN 1,934 2,017 615 2026-06-26
74 Ecuador ECU 1,932 1,977 595 2026-06-30
75 AEK Athens GRE 1,929 1,958 1,633 2026-09-20
76 Lille OSC FRA 1,928 2,026 1,445 2026-09-20
77 Fenerbahce TUR 1,926 1,983 1,691 2026-09-20
78 Sunderland ENG 1,926 1,929 1,958 2026-09-20
79 Austria AUT 1,925 1,956 866 2026-09-27
80 Italy ITA 1,923 2,095 895 2026-09-28
81 Mainz 05 GER 1,923 1,969 1,224 2026-09-19
82 Hammarby IF SWE 1,922 1,932 507 2026-09-20
83 Senegal SEN 1,922 1,990 642 2026-07-01
84 FC København DEN 1,921 1,966 787 2026-09-20
85 Villarreal CF ESP 1,919 2,059 1,474 2026-09-20
86 SS Lazio ITA 1,917 2,029 1,552 2026-09-27
87 Molde FK NOR 1,916 2,081 1,751 2026-09-19
88 Denmark DEN 1,916 2,018 876 2026-09-27
89 Olympiacos Piraeus GRE 1,913 2,031 1,842 2026-09-20
90 SK Brann NOR 1,910 2,017 2,155 2026-09-20
91 Stade Rennais FRA 1,910 1,965 1,338 2026-09-19
92 Algeria ALG 1,908 1,961 621 2026-07-02
93 PAOK Thessaloniki GRE 1,904 1,965 1,656 2026-09-20
94 South Korea KOR 1,900 1,985 1,010 2026-06-24
95 Galatasaray SK TUR 1,896 2,058 1,764 2026-09-19
96 Shakhtar Donetsk UKR 1,894 2,035 792 2026-09-20
97 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim GER 1,890 1,986 745 2026-09-20
98 Egypt EGY 1,888 1,962 761 2026-07-07
99 Djurgårdens IF SWE 1,888 1,932 662 2026-09-20
100 AZ Alkmaar NED 1,887 1,924 1,289 2026-09-20
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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