What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 129 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Poland drew 33 where the draw model expected 26.8 from those particular fixtures — about 6 more, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 29.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 29 May 2005 → 02 Sep 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 31 May 1997 → 03 Feb 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 02 Apr 2003 → 31 Mar 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 22 May 1988 → 03 Jun 1989 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 12 Oct 1980 → 18 Nov 1981 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 15 May 1974 → 31 Oct 1974 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 06 Jun 1978 → 21 Mar 1979 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 26 Nov 2022 → 12 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 16 May 1973 → 26 Sep 1973 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 30 Oct 1968 → 09 Nov 1969 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 539 | 145 | 26.9% | 0 | 16 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 137 | 25 | 18.3% | 3 | 9 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 120 | 31 | 25.8% | 0 | 7 |
| FIFA World Cup | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 3 | 7 |
| UEFA Nations League | 24 | 6 | 25.0% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA European Championship | 17 | 8 | 47.1% | 0 | 2 |
| Balkan Cup | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Nehru Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 | 2 |
| Marlboro Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| King's Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Lunar New Year Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Olympic Games | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Four Nations' Cup | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2024 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 4 |
| 2023 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2022 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 4 |
| 2021 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2020 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 2019 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 2018 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 2017 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2016 | 14 | 6 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 2015 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2014 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2013 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2012 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 3 |
| 2011 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 3 |
| 2010 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 3 |
| 2009 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 2008 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2007 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 4 |
| 2006 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 11 |
| 2005 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 10 |
| 2004 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 2003 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 12 |
| 2002 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 8 |
| 2001 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 3 |
| 2000 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1999 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1998 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 1997 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 6 |
| 1996 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1995 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1994 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1993 | 14 | 6 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1992 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1991 | 14 | 7 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 5 |
| 1989 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 7 |
| 1988 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 1987 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 1986 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1985 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 6 |
| 1984 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 3 |
| 1983 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1981 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1980 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1979 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1978 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 9 |
| 1977 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 9 |
| 1976 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1975 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 1974 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 13 |
| 1973 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 10 |
| 1972 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1971 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1970 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1969 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1968 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1967 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1966 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 5 |
| 1965 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 1964 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1962 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 1961 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1960 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1959 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1958 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1956 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1955 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1954 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1949 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1948 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1947 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1939 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1937 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1936 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1934 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1933 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1932 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1931 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1930 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1927 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1926 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1925 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1923 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1922 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 02 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Oct 18:45 | Poland | vs | Romania | – / – / – | 23.6% |
|
| Mon, 05 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Oct 18:45 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | vs | Poland | – / – / – | 27.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.