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// Elo ratings 545,188 matches rated · 14,929 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,188
Teams rated14,929
Evenly matched draw 26.06% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.47% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,635 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 26.06% 26.1% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 24.92% 24.9% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.90% 75–99 — drew 23.63% 23.6% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.94% 100–149 — drew 24.49% 24.5% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.27% 150–199 — drew 23.18% 23.2% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.34% 200–299 — drew 20.07% 20.1% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.05% 300+ — drew 13.47% 13.5% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,202 26.06% 22,135 29.31% 28.79% -1.32%
25–49 72,424 24.92% 21,804 28.79% 28.66% -2.65%
50–74 78,900 23.11% 20,470 28.21% 28.34% -3.41%
75–99 64,625 23.63% 18,577 28.21% 27.90% -2.02%
100–149 86,857 24.49% 29,709 26.90% 26.94% -3.20%
150–199 53,219 23.18% 20,283 25.45% 25.27% -2.70%
200–299 49,713 20.07% 19,156 21.90% 22.34% -5.33%
300+ 22,695 13.47% 8,735 14.49% 16.05% -12.98%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,323 2,336 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,260 2,337 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,252 2,300 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,221 2,245 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,160 2,237 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,148 2,245 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,132 2,203 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,124 2,147 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,110 2,110 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,104 2,292 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,099 2,123 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,078 2,168 2026-09-19
13 ENG · Brentford 2,074 2,074 2026-09-18
14 NOR · Viking FK 2,073 2,098 2026-09-20
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,071 2,157 2026-09-20
16 POR · Sporting CP 2,069 2,143 2026-09-19
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,066 2,196 2026-09-20
18 ENG · Bournemouth 2,064 2,079 2026-09-20
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,053 2,136 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,036 2,040 2026-09-20
21 ENG · Chelsea 2,033 2,198 2026-09-18
22 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,031 2,043 2026-09-20
23 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,031 2,057 2026-09-25
24 ITA · AS Roma 2,028 2,072 2026-09-19
25 POR · SL Benfica 2,027 2,073 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,020 2,138 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,017 2,089 2026-09-20
28 ENG · Everton 2,013 2,015 2026-09-19
29 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,011 2,013 2026-09-27
30 ITA · Juventus 2,010 2,204 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,593 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
201 AIK Fotboll SWE 1,764 1,904 738 2026-09-20
202 RSC Anderlecht BEL 1,764 1,922 1,683 2026-09-19
203 Legia Warszawa POL 1,763 1,838 959 2026-09-20
204 Racing de Santander ESP 1,759 1,827 1,102 2026-09-19
205 Falkirk SCO 1,759 1,833 1,311 2026-09-19
206 HJK Helsinki FIN 1,759 1,893 706 2026-09-18
207 TSV Hartberg AUT 1,758 1,793 377 2026-09-24
208 CD Castellón ESP 1,756 1,756 371 2026-09-28
209 Rubin Kazan RUS 1,756 1,824 467 2026-08-01
210 FC Salzburg AUT 1,753 1,922 118 2025-10-20
211 1. FC Heidenheim GER 1,753 1,889 654 2026-09-25
212 Genoa CFC ITA 1,753 1,846 1,228 2026-09-20
213 Aberdeen SCO 1,753 1,895 1,529 2026-09-19
214 Luzern SUI 1,752 1,835 882 2026-09-19
215 CFR Cluj ROU 1,752 1,931 703 2026-09-19
216 Baltika Kaliningrad RUS 1,751 1,787 66 2026-08-01
217 Angers SCO FRA 1,751 1,787 927 2026-09-19
218 Rapid București ROU 1,751 1,811 642 2026-09-18
219 SC Heerenveen NED 1,750 1,776 1,245 2026-09-19
220 Västerås SK SWE 1,750 1,750 124 2026-09-19
221 Ilves Tampere FIN 1,749 1,856 407 2026-09-19
222 SD Eibar ESP 1,749 1,845 1,071 2026-09-27
223 FC Famalicão POR 1,748 1,767 266 2026-09-19
224 SC Dnipro-1 UKR 1,748 1,797 161 2024-05-25
225 Partick Thistle SCO 1,745 1,767 1,325 2026-09-19
226 UD Almería ESP 1,745 1,791 1,084 2026-09-27
227 West Bromwich Albion ENG 1,744 1,882 2,058 2026-09-20
228 Stade de Reims FRA 1,743 1,870 888 2026-09-18
229 FK Austria Wien AUT 1,743 1,883 1,006 2026-09-19
230 Sheffield United ENG 1,742 1,949 2,080 2026-09-19
231 Aris Thessaloniki GRE 1,742 1,797 1,221 2026-09-19
232 Shandong Taishan CHN 1,741 1,874 515 2026-09-05
233 Fluminense BRA 1,741 1,783 652 2026-09-20
234 Derry City IRL 1,741 1,816 658 2026-09-18
235 Dundee United SCO 1,740 1,841 1,473 2026-09-19
236 Boca Juniors ARG 1,740 1,774 568 2026-09-27
237 Cruzeiro BRA 1,737 1,793 538 2026-09-20
238 AC Sparta Praha CZE 1,737 1,804 333 2026-09-16
239 IK Start NOR 1,736 1,894 1,770 2026-09-20
240 Basel SUI 1,733 2,002 1,189 2026-09-20
241 VfL Bochum GER 1,733 1,839 1,201 2026-09-20
242 1. FC Kaiserslautern GER 1,732 1,798 1,294 2026-09-19
243 Stabæk Fotball NOR 1,732 1,998 1,159 2026-09-20
244 1. FC Magdeburg GER 1,732 1,732 504 2026-09-18
245 NEC Nijmegen NED 1,731 1,837 1,009 2026-09-20
246 FC St. Pauli GER 1,729 1,857 1,045 2026-09-20
247 Nashville SC USA 1,729 1,729 253 2026-09-26
248 Jagiellonia Białystok POL 1,728 1,833 653 2026-09-20
249 Vissel Kobe JPN 1,728 1,832 531 2026-09-20
250 Ararat-Armenia ARM 1,728 1,794 289 2026-09-16
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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