▦ FDB4
// Elo ratings 545,856 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,856
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 496,175 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.21% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.26% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.55% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,269 27.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,945 26.31% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,128 25.02% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,786 25.21% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,885 25.26% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,211 23.72% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,450 20.55% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,501 13.96% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,681 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.50% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.37% 25.4% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.90% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.86% 25.9% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.58% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.92% 19.9% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,179 27.50% — —
25–49 5,077 25.37% — —
50–74 5,115 26.90% — —
75–99 4,618 25.86% — —
100–149 8,299 24.58% — —
150–199 6,447 23.11% — —
200–299 8,423 19.92% — —
300+ 6,523 12.37% — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 FC Bayern München 2,307 2,328
2 Manchester City 2,267 2,331
3 Arsenal 2,248 2,293
4 Barcelona 2,212 2,243
5 Paris Saint-Germain 2,155 2,231
6 Real Madrid 2,143 2,237
7 Inter Milan 2,130 2,202
8 FK Bodø/Glimt 2,124 2,143
9 Brighton & Hove Albion 2,113 2,113
10 Liverpool 2,085 2,285
11 Borussia Dortmund 2,084 2,116
12 Viking FK 2,083 2,097
13 Aston Villa 2,075 2,162
14 Brentford 2,070 2,070
15 Sporting CP 2,064 2,145
16 Bayer Leverkusen 2,063 2,190
17 Manchester United 2,060 2,147
18 Atlético Madrid 2,049 2,134
19 Bournemouth 2,041 2,073
20 Chelsea 2,039 2,185
21 SL Benfica 2,028 2,071
22 VfB Stuttgart 2,027 2,050
23 Leeds United 2,026 2,033
24 AS Roma 2,025 2,070
25 Porto 2,016 2,086
26 Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011
27 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,009 2,037
28 Everton 2,002 2,009
29 Newcastle United 1,993 2,141
30 Juventus 1,992 2,200
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 Spain 2,312 2,312
2 England 2,195 2,195
3 Argentina 2,190 2,200
4 France 2,157 2,210
5 Portugal 2,087 2,088
6 Morocco 2,075 2,106
7 Brazil 2,039 2,212
8 Colombia 2,033 2,115
9 Switzerland 2,033 2,033
10 Japan 2,026 2,064
11 Netherlands 2,023 2,177
12 Belgium 2,018 2,175
13 Norway 1,973 2,053
14 Germany 1,965 2,254
15 Mexico 1,965 2,054
16 Italy 1,957 2,095
17 Nigeria 1,949 1,962
18 Australia 1,936 2,002
19 Senegal 1,924 1,991
20 Croatia 1,923 2,036
21 United States 1,923 2,011
22 Ecuador 1,919 1,980
23 Austria 1,917 1,957
24 Algeria 1,911 1,961
25 Uruguay 1,909 2,056
26 Denmark 1,909 2,018
27 Paraguay 1,905 1,905
28 South Korea 1,901 1,986
29 Iran 1,900 2,017
30 Canada 1,878 2,010
All rated teams 14,934 teams
Clear
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# Team Rating Peak
14851 Dominica 1,337 1,538
14852 Solomon Islands 1,337 1,697
14853 Bonnyrigg Rose 1,336 1,549
14854 Altona 93 1,336 1,481
14855 Truro City 1,334 1,500
14856 Eritrea 1,334 1,515
14857 FC Unterföhring 1,331 1,487
14858 Saint Lucia 1,328 1,602
14859 Samoa 1,328 1,500
14860 Latvia 1,328 1,642
14861 Bonaire 1,328 1,509
14862 Tuvalu 1,327 1,502
14863 Somalia 1,326 1,500
14864 Afghanistan 1,325 1,576
14865 TSV 1896 Rain am Lech 1,323 1,465
14866 Alderney 1,323 1,500
14867 Tibet 1,321 1,500
14868 VfB Germania Halberstadt 1,320 1,500
14869 Chad 1,320 1,536
14870 Dumbarton 1,320 1,568
14871 Nuneaton Town 1,318 1,538
14872 Western Sahara 1,317 1,500
14873 Solihull Moors 1,317 1,633
14874 Guam 1,315 1,500
14875 Yerevan 1,314 1,563
14876 Morecambe 1,311 1,578
14877 Cayman Islands 1,308 1,506
14878 Mongolia 1,307 1,500
14879 Berliner AK 07 1,306 1,591
14880 Brackley Town 1,306 1,504
14881 Kettering Town 1,304 1,570
14882 Farsley Celtic 1,303 1,500
14883 Stirling Albion 1,300 1,576
14884 Cook Islands 1,298 1,500
14885 Turks and Caicos Islands 1,297 1,500
14886 Annan Athletic 1,294 1,500
14887 Saint Helena 1,293 1,500
14888 Wallis Islands and Futuna 1,291 1,500
14889 North Ferriby United 1,290 1,433
14890 Dvin Artashat 1,288 1,500
14891 Hebei 1,287 1,641
14892 Weymouth 1,287 1,508
14893 Grays Athletic 1,286 1,587
14894 Gateshead 1,284 1,571
14895 Braintree Town 1,283 1,528
14896 Nepal 1,283 1,500
14897 Antigua and Barbuda 1,283 1,634
14898 Oxford City 1,283 1,500
14899 Tiburones Rojos de Veracruz 1,275 1,563
14900 Djibouti 1,270 1,500
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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