What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 119 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Wales drew 35 where the draw model expected 27.4 from those particular fixtures — about 8 more, or 1.7 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 27.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46 | 06 Feb 2008 → 26 Mar 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 06 Sep 2018 → 09 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 31 Mar 1999 → 02 Sep 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 13 Oct 1993 → 29 Mar 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 06 Sep 1989 → 06 Feb 1991 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 28 Mar 2016 → 05 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 20 May 1992 → 31 Mar 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 17 May 1980 → 16 May 1981 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 06 Jun 2025 → 18 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 09 Sep 1987 → 14 Sep 1988 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| British Home Championship | 260 | 59 | 22.7% | 0 | 3 |
| Friendly | 169 | 41 | 24.3% | 1 | 13 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 136 | 30 | 22.1% | 0 | 6 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 116 | 25 | 21.6% | 0 | 5 |
| UEFA Nations League | 24 | 5 | 20.8% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA European Championship | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 6 |
| FIFA World Cup | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Nations Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Kirin Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2024 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2022 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2021 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2020 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2019 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2018 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2017 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 2016 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 9 |
| 2015 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 2014 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2013 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2012 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2011 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2010 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2009 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2008 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2007 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 5 |
| 2006 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2005 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 2004 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2003 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2002 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 2001 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 2000 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1999 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1998 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1997 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1996 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1995 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1994 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1993 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1992 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 1991 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1990 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1989 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1988 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1987 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1986 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1985 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1984 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1983 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1982 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1981 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1980 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1979 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1978 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1977 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 2 |
| 1976 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1975 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1974 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1973 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1972 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1970 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1968 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1967 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1966 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1965 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1964 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1961 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1960 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1959 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1957 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1956 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1955 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1954 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1953 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1952 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1950 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1949 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1948 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1945 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1939 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1936 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1933 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1931 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1930 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1929 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1927 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1923 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1922 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1920 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1914 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1913 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1912 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1911 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1910 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1909 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1908 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1907 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1906 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1905 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1904 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1903 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1902 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1901 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1900 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1899 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1898 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1897 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1896 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1895 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1894 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1893 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1892 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1891 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1890 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1889 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1888 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1887 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1886 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1885 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1884 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1883 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1882 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1881 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1880 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1879 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1878 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1877 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1876 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 01 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Oct 18:45 | Wales | vs | Norway | – / – / – | 19.5% |
|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 18:45 | Wales | vs | Denmark | – / – / – | 25.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.