What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 30 Sep 2026.
Over 126 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Austria drew 22 where the draw model expected 27.1 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 29.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 27 Sep 1925 → 06 May 1928 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 18 Apr 1948 → 13 Nov 1949 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 20 May 1959 → 10 Dec 1960 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 22 Mar 1978 → 30 Jan 1979 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 13 Jun 2021 → 24 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 06 Oct 2017 → 16 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 20 Apr 1994 → 06 Sep 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 14 Jun 2015 → 14 Jun 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 28 Apr 1976 → 30 Apr 1977 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 27 May 1961 → 16 Sep 1962 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 476 | 110 | 23.1% | 3 | 14 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 142 | 30 | 21.1% | 0 | 8 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 118 | 19 | 16.1% | 5 | 9 |
| Central European International Cup | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 1 | 4 |
| FIFA World Cup | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Nations League | 26 | 6 | 23.1% | 2 | 5 |
| UEFA European Championship | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 4 | 4 |
| Olympic Games | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| Tournoi de France | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2024 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 4 |
| 2023 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2022 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2021 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 11 |
| 2020 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 2019 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 2018 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 9 |
| 2017 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2016 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2015 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2014 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2013 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2012 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2011 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 7 |
| 2010 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2009 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 2008 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 2 |
| 2007 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 2006 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 2005 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 2004 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2003 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 2002 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2001 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2000 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1999 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1998 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 |
| 1997 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1996 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1995 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1994 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1993 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 1992 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1990 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 1989 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1986 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1985 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1984 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1983 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1982 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 7 |
| 1981 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1980 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1979 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1978 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 12 |
| 1977 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1976 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1975 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1974 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1972 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1971 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1970 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1969 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1968 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1967 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1966 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1965 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1964 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1962 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1961 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1960 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1959 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1958 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1957 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1956 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1955 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1954 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 1953 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1951 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1949 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1948 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1947 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1946 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1945 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1939 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1937 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1936 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1934 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 1933 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1931 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1930 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1929 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1928 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1926 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1925 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 1924 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1923 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1922 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1920 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1919 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1918 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1917 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1916 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1915 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1914 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1912 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1911 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1910 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1907 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1906 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1905 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1904 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1903 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1902 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 01 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Oct 18:45 | Republic of Ireland | vs | Austria | – / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 16:00 | Kosovo | vs | Austria | – / – / – | 27.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.