How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?
Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.
| Rating gap | Matches | Drew | With odds | Drew (those) | Bookmaker's figure | Return if you bet every draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–24 | 67,203 | 27.40% | 22,161 | 29.39% | 28.79% | -1.08% |
| 25–49 | 72,871 | 26.31% | 21,925 | 28.62% | 28.66% | -3.14% |
| 50–74 | 79,062 | 25.02% | 20,405 | 28.41% | 28.34% | -2.77% |
| 75–99 | 64,727 | 25.22% | 18,710 | 28.04% | 27.91% | -2.60% |
| 100–149 | 86,814 | 25.25% | 29,683 | 26.91% | 26.93% | -3.11% |
| 150–199 | 53,161 | 23.72% | 20,326 | 25.50% | 25.26% | -2.52% |
| 200–299 | 49,385 | 20.57% | 19,016 | 21.77% | 22.31% | -5.79% |
| 300+ | 22,460 | 13.95% | 8,643 | 14.52% | 16.00% | -12.49% |
Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.
| Rating gap | Matches | Drew | With odds | Drew (those) | Bookmaker's figure | Return if you bet every draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–24 | 5,165 | 27.45% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 25–49 | 5,086 | 25.56% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 50–74 | 5,101 | 26.84% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 75–99 | 4,610 | 25.81% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 100–149 | 8,282 | 24.61% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 150–199 | 6,426 | 22.98% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 200–299 | 8,400 | 19.98% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 300+ | 6,491 | 12.39% | 0 | — | — | — |
| # | Team | Rating | Peak | Last match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GER · FC Bayern München | 2,315 | 2,328 | 2026-09-18 |
| 2 | ENG · Manchester City | 2,253 | 2,331 | 2026-09-20 |
| 3 | ENG · Arsenal | 2,244 | 2,293 | 2026-09-19 |
| 4 | ESP · Barcelona | 2,209 | 2,243 | 2026-09-19 |
| 5 | FRA · Paris Saint-Germain | 2,154 | 2,231 | 2026-09-20 |
| 6 | ESP · Real Madrid | 2,139 | 2,237 | 2026-09-20 |
| 7 | ITA · Inter Milan | 2,127 | 2,202 | 2026-09-19 |
| 8 | NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt | 2,122 | 2,143 | 2026-10-01 |
| 9 | ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion | 2,103 | 2,103 | 2026-09-19 |
| 10 | ENG · Liverpool | 2,098 | 2,285 | 2026-09-20 |
| 11 | GER · Borussia Dortmund | 2,091 | 2,116 | 2026-09-19 |
| 12 | ENG · Aston Villa | 2,073 | 2,162 | 2026-09-19 |
| 13 | NOR · Viking FK | 2,072 | 2,097 | 2026-10-01 |
| 14 | ENG · Brentford | 2,068 | 2,068 | 2026-09-18 |
| 15 | ENG · Manchester United | 2,065 | 2,147 | 2026-09-20 |
| 16 | ENG · Bournemouth | 2,058 | 2,073 | 2026-09-20 |
| 17 | GER · Bayer Leverkusen | 2,055 | 2,190 | 2026-09-20 |
| 18 | POR · Sporting CP | 2,054 | 2,145 | 2026-09-19 |
| 19 | ESP · Atlético Madrid | 2,042 | 2,134 | 2026-09-20 |
| 20 | ENG · Leeds United | 2,030 | 2,033 | 2026-09-20 |
| 21 | POR · SL Benfica | 2,026 | 2,071 | 2026-09-20 |
| 22 | ITA · AS Roma | 2,024 | 2,070 | 2026-09-19 |
| 23 | ENG · Chelsea | 2,022 | 2,185 | 2026-09-18 |
| 24 | GER · VfB Stuttgart | 2,018 | 2,050 | 2026-10-01 |
| 25 | BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 2,018 | 2,037 | 2026-09-20 |
| 26 | ENG · Newcastle United | 2,014 | 2,141 | 2026-09-19 |
| 27 | POR · Porto | 2,010 | 2,086 | 2026-09-20 |
| 28 | RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg | 2,009 | 2,011 | 2026-09-27 |
| 29 | ENG · Everton | 2,007 | 2,009 | 2026-09-19 |
| 30 | ITA · Juventus | 2,005 | 2,200 | 2026-09-20 |
| # | Team | Rating | Peak | Last match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ESP · Spain | 2,304 | 2,304 | 2026-09-29 |
| 2 | ARG · Argentina | 2,181 | 2,198 | 2026-07-19 |
| 3 | ENG · England | 2,164 | 2,174 | 2026-09-29 |
| 4 | FRA · France | 2,150 | 2,209 | 2026-09-28 |
| 5 | MAR · Morocco | 2,083 | 2,106 | 2026-07-09 |
| 6 | POR · Portugal | 2,075 | 2,088 | 2026-10-01 |
| 7 | COL · Colombia | 2,046 | 2,115 | 2026-07-07 |
| 8 | SUI · Switzerland | 2,024 | 2,032 | 2026-09-29 |
| 9 | JPN · Japan | 2,022 | 2,063 | 2026-06-29 |
| 10 | BRA · Brazil | 2,021 | 2,212 | 2026-07-05 |
| 11 | BEL · Belgium | 2,021 | 2,175 | 2026-09-28 |
| 12 | NED · Netherlands | 2,018 | 2,177 | 2026-10-01 |
| 13 | MEX · Mexico | 2,015 | 2,054 | 2026-07-05 |
| 14 | NOR · Norway | 1,984 | 2,053 | 2026-10-01 |
| 15 | GER · Germany | 1,968 | 2,254 | 2026-10-01 |
| 16 | CRO · Croatia | 1,955 | 2,036 | 2026-09-29 |
| 17 | NGA · Nigeria | 1,950 | 1,961 | 2026-06-10 |
| 18 | AUS · Australia | 1,949 | 2,002 | 2026-07-03 |
| 19 | IRN · Iran | 1,934 | 2,017 | 2026-06-26 |
| 20 | ECU · Ecuador | 1,932 | 1,977 | 2026-06-30 |
| 21 | ITA · Italy | 1,923 | 2,095 | 2026-09-28 |
| 22 | SEN · Senegal | 1,922 | 1,990 | 2026-07-01 |
| 23 | AUT · Austria | 1,920 | 1,956 | 2026-10-01 |
| 24 | ALG · Algeria | 1,908 | 1,961 | 2026-07-02 |
| 25 | KOR · South Korea | 1,900 | 1,985 | 2026-06-24 |
| 26 | DEN · Denmark | 1,892 | 2,018 | 2026-10-01 |
| 27 | EGY · Egypt | 1,888 | 1,962 | 2026-07-07 |
| 28 | CIV · Ivory Coast | 1,887 | 2,007 | 2026-06-30 |
| 29 | TUR · Turkey | 1,882 | 1,978 | 2026-09-28 |
| 30 | URU · Uruguay | 1,881 | 2,053 | 2026-06-26 |
| # | Team | Country | Rating | Peak | Matches | Last match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 251 | Hitra | — | 1,430 | 1,500 | 23 | 2025-07-17 |
| 252 | Palau | — | 1,429 | 1,500 | 2 | 1998-08-01 |
| 253 | Yemen DPR | — | 1,427 | 1,526 | 25 | 1989-11-05 |
| 254 | Raetia | — | 1,424 | 1,513 | 29 | 2026-06-06 |
| 255 | Fiji | FIJ | 1,423 | 1,696 | 268 | 2026-06-06 |
| 256 | Malta | MLT | 1,420 | 1,513 | 460 | 2026-10-01 |
| 257 | Ticino | — | 1,418 | 1,500 | 5 | 2026-06-06 |
| 258 | Aruba | ARU | 1,417 | 1,500 | 152 | 2026-06-06 |
| 259 | Azerbaijan | AZE | 1,413 | 1,587 | 312 | 2026-10-01 |
| 260 | Central African Republic | CTA | 1,413 | 1,557 | 138 | 2026-06-09 |
| 261 | Congo | CGO | 1,409 | 1,675 | 406 | 2025-10-14 |
| 262 | Åland Islands | — | 1,404 | 1,577 | 51 | 2023-07-13 |
| 263 | Vietnam Republic | — | 1,403 | 1,650 | 195 | 1975-03-23 |
| 264 | Grenada | GRN | 1,399 | 1,649 | 260 | 2026-05-16 |
| 265 | Two Sicilies | — | 1,397 | 1,500 | 6 | 2023-07-02 |
| 266 | India | IND | 1,396 | 1,649 | 525 | 2026-06-09 |
| 267 | Găgăuzia | — | 1,396 | 1,500 | 3 | 2006-11-21 |
| 268 | Cyprus | CYP | 1,388 | 1,630 | 428 | 2026-09-28 |
| 269 | Eswatini | SWZ | 1,388 | 1,579 | 274 | 2025-10-13 |
| 270 | Marshall Islands | — | 1,387 | 1,500 | 2 | 2025-08-16 |
| 271 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | SKN | 1,387 | 1,646 | 226 | 2026-03-30 |
| 272 | Ambazonia | — | 1,383 | 1,501 | 6 | 2007-06-07 |
| 273 | Montserrat | MSR | 1,382 | 1,545 | 66 | 2025-06-10 |
| 274 | South Sudan | SSD | 1,373 | 1,504 | 78 | 2025-11-25 |
| 275 | Cambodia | CAM | 1,368 | 1,573 | 295 | 2026-06-09 |
| 276 | Lithuania | LTU | 1,367 | 1,749 | 435 | 2026-09-27 |
| 277 | Myanmar | MYA | 1,367 | 1,810 | 513 | 2026-07-18 |
| 278 | Niue | — | 1,366 | 1,500 | 2 | 1983-08-22 |
| 279 | Barawa | — | 1,363 | 1,500 | 12 | 2019-05-25 |
| 280 | Chagos Islands | — | 1,361 | 1,534 | 16 | 2019-12-29 |
| 281 | British Virgin Islands | VGB | 1,359 | 1,538 | 123 | 2026-06-06 |
| 282 | US Virgin Islands | VIR | 1,358 | 1,505 | 78 | 2026-03-28 |
| 283 | Latvia | LVA | 1,353 | 1,642 | 463 | 2026-09-28 |
| 284 | Mauritius | MRI | 1,350 | 1,613 | 323 | 2025-10-13 |
| 285 | Moldova | MDA | 1,350 | 1,598 | 301 | 2026-09-29 |
| 286 | Bangladesh | BAN | 1,348 | 1,501 | 305 | 2026-06-05 |
| 287 | Solomon Islands | SOL | 1,337 | 1,697 | 214 | 2026-03-30 |
| 288 | Eritrea | ERI | 1,334 | 1,515 | 71 | 2019-09-10 |
| 289 | Dominica | DMA | 1,331 | 1,538 | 215 | 2026-03-30 |
| 290 | Saint Lucia | LCA | 1,328 | 1,602 | 230 | 2026-03-27 |
| 291 | Samoa | SAM | 1,328 | 1,500 | 71 | 2024-11-18 |
| 292 | Bonaire | — | 1,328 | 1,509 | 44 | 2026-06-06 |
| 293 | Tuvalu | — | 1,327 | 1,502 | 39 | 2023-11-30 |
| 294 | Somalia | SOM | 1,326 | 1,500 | 124 | 2025-11-26 |
| 295 | São Tomé and Príncipe | STP | 1,325 | 1,500 | 71 | 2025-10-13 |
| 296 | Afghanistan | AFG | 1,324 | 1,576 | 147 | 2026-06-10 |
| 297 | Alderney | — | 1,323 | 1,500 | 135 | 2022-04-23 |
| 298 | Tibet | — | 1,321 | 1,500 | 21 | 2025-07-03 |
| 299 | Chad | CHA | 1,320 | 1,536 | 138 | 2025-11-17 |
| 300 | Western Sahara | — | 1,317 | 1,500 | 9 | 2013-06-28 |
The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.
Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.
The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.
This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.
| Result | Odds | 1 / odds | Margin removed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.00 | 50.0% | 48.3% |
| Draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 27.6% |
| Away win | 4.00 | 25.0% | 24.1% |
| Total | — | 103.6% | 100.0% |
The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.
FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.