How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,457

Teams rated14,934

Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25

Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,879 matches

drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	With odds	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	67,223	27.39%	22,161	29.39%	28.79%	-1.08%
25–49	72,892	26.31%	21,925	28.62%	28.66%	-3.14%
50–74	79,090	25.02%	20,405	28.41%	28.34%	-2.77%
75–99	64,753	25.22%	18,710	28.04%	27.91%	-2.60%
100–149	86,847	25.25%	29,683	26.91%	26.93%	-3.11%
150–199	53,175	23.72%	20,326	25.50%	25.26%	-2.52%
200–299	49,414	20.56%	19,016	21.77%	22.31%	-5.79%
300+	22,485	13.96%	8,643	14.52%	16.00%	-12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,578 matches

drew How often each rating gap actually drew.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	5,166	27.45%	—	—	—
25–49	5,087	25.56%	—	—	—
50–74	5,103	26.85%	—	—	—
75–99	4,610	25.81%	—	—	—
100–149	8,286	24.60%	—	—	—
150–199	6,430	22.97%	—	—	—
200–299	8,403	19.99%	—	—	—
300+	6,493	12.38%	—	—	—

Top clubs by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	GER · FC Bayern München	2,315	2,328	2026-09-18
2	ENG · Manchester City	2,253	2,331	2026-09-20
3	ENG · Arsenal	2,244	2,293	2026-09-19
4	ESP · Barcelona	2,209	2,243	2026-09-19
5	FRA · Paris Saint-Germain	2,154	2,231	2026-09-20
6	ESP · Real Madrid	2,139	2,237	2026-09-20
7	ITA · Inter Milan	2,127	2,202	2026-10-03
8	NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt	2,122	2,143	2026-10-01
9	ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion	2,103	2,103	2026-09-19
10	ENG · Liverpool	2,098	2,285	2026-09-20
11	GER · Borussia Dortmund	2,091	2,116	2026-09-19
12	ENG · Aston Villa	2,077	2,162	2026-10-02
13	NOR · Viking FK	2,072	2,097	2026-10-01
14	ENG · Brentford	2,068	2,068	2026-09-18
15	ENG · Manchester United	2,065	2,147	2026-09-20
16	ENG · Bournemouth	2,058	2,073	2026-09-20
17	GER · Bayer Leverkusen	2,055	2,190	2026-09-20
18	POR · Sporting CP	2,054	2,145	2026-09-19
19	ESP · Atlético Madrid	2,042	2,134	2026-09-20
20	ENG · Leeds United	2,030	2,033	2026-09-20
21	POR · SL Benfica	2,026	2,071	2026-09-20
22	ITA · AS Roma	2,024	2,070	2026-09-19
23	ENG · Chelsea	2,022	2,185	2026-09-18
24	GER · VfB Stuttgart	2,018	2,050	2026-10-01
25	BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	2,018	2,037	2026-09-20
26	POR · Porto	2,014	2,086	2026-10-02
27	ENG · Newcastle United	2,014	2,141	2026-09-19
28	RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg	2,009	2,011	2026-09-27
29	ENG · Everton	2,007	2,009	2026-09-19
30	ITA · Juventus	1,996	2,200	2026-10-02

Top national teams by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	ESP · Spain	2,306	2,306	2026-10-03
2	ENG · England	2,191	2,191	2026-10-03
3	ARG · Argentina	2,181	2,198	2026-07-19
4	FRA · France	2,136	2,209	2026-10-02
5	MAR · Morocco	2,083	2,106	2026-07-09
6	POR · Portugal	2,075	2,088	2026-10-01
7	COL · Colombia	2,046	2,115	2026-07-07
8	BEL · Belgium	2,038	2,175	2026-10-02
9	SUI · Switzerland	2,029	2,032	2026-10-03
10	JPN · Japan	2,022	2,063	2026-06-29
11	BRA · Brazil	2,021	2,212	2026-07-05
12	NED · Netherlands	2,018	2,177	2026-10-01
13	MEX · Mexico	2,015	2,054	2026-07-05
14	NOR · Norway	1,984	2,053	2026-10-01
15	GER · Germany	1,968	2,254	2026-10-01
16	NGA · Nigeria	1,950	1,961	2026-06-10
17	AUS · Australia	1,949	2,002	2026-07-03
18	ITA · Italy	1,937	2,095	2026-10-02
19	IRN · Iran	1,934	2,017	2026-06-26
20	ECU · Ecuador	1,932	1,977	2026-06-30
21	CRO · Croatia	1,928	2,036	2026-10-03
22	SEN · Senegal	1,922	1,990	2026-07-01
23	AUT · Austria	1,920	1,956	2026-10-01
24	ALG · Algeria	1,908	1,961	2026-07-02
25	KOR · South Korea	1,900	1,985	2026-06-24
26	DEN · Denmark	1,892	2,018	2026-10-01
27	EGY · Egypt	1,888	1,962	2026-07-07
28	CIV · Ivory Coast	1,887	2,007	2026-06-30
29	URU · Uruguay	1,881	2,053	2026-06-26
30	USA · United States	1,880	2,011	2026-07-06

All rated teams 14,934 teams

Type Country

Team

▸ Reset

#	Team	Country	Rating	Peak	Matches	Last match
1501	FC Magna Wiener Neustadt	AUT	1,531	1,539	5	2009-04-22
1502	FC Trenkwalder Admira	AUT	1,531	1,542	4	2010-08-13
1503	Fish United	FIN	1,531	1,556	12	2025-03-15
1504	Centro Sportivo Alagoano	BRA	1,531	1,560	63	2026-02-24
1505	1964 Silifkespor	TUR	1,531	1,542	6	2025-12-04
1506	Entente Durbuy	BEL	1,531	1,552	10	2018-08-05
1507	Polkolor Piaseczno	POL	1,531	1,534	6	1992-10-20
1508	FC Bacău	ROU	1,531	1,531	10	2026-08-12
1509	KFC Merelbeke	BEL	1,531	1,570	24	2025-09-07
1510	NK Primorje	SVN	1,531	1,539	14	2004-08-19
1511	Alcochetense	POR	1,531	1,531	2	2026-09-20
1512	R.OCDN.Bernissart	BEL	1,531	1,531	2	2001-08-05
1513	BSV Bad Bleiberg	AUT	1,531	1,548	12	2003-03-19
1514	FC Kiffen	FIN	1,531	1,541	16	2025-04-16
1515	GPS Omens	USA	1,531	1,531	3	2017-05-31
1516	Bucovia Bukowa	POL	1,531	1,542	8	1997-09-10
1517	Kujawiak Włocławek	POL	1,531	1,544	12	2005-11-30
1518	FC Lasten 2	FIN	1,531	1,531	4	2026-03-07
1519	Villefranche	FRA	1,531	1,531	8	2019-02-06
1520	Popești-Leordeni	ROU	1,531	1,537	17	2026-08-12
1521	Karacabey Belediyespor	TUR	1,531	1,544	25	2025-12-03
1522	Cork Athletic	IRL	1,531	1,581	71	1957-03-13
1523	FC Saint-Jean GE	SUI	1,530	1,530	12	1993-09-04
1524	Club Boca Río Gallegos	ARG	1,530	1,540	6	2012-12-05
1525	Sierra Leone	SLE	1,530	1,680	301	2026-06-09
1526	LoPa	FIN	1,530	1,547	23	2025-03-12
1527	FC Nile	FIN	1,530	1,539	3	2025-03-29
1528	FC Le Lorrain	BEL	1,530	1,551	11	1979-08-12
1529	USI Dopolavoro Genève	SUI	1,530	1,559	26	1940-12-29
1530	Wangen bei Olten	SUI	1,530	1,560	37	2006-09-30
1531	VIFK	FIN	1,530	1,552	21	2025-04-15
1532	Racing Butsel	BEL	1,530	1,532	7	2012-08-12
1533	Włókniarz Kietrz	POL	1,530	1,558	8	2002-08-06
1534	Liaoning Tieren	CHN	1,530	1,566	42	2026-09-12
1535	Jong AZ	NED	1,530	1,536	3	2007-01-25
1536	Impuls	ARM	1,530	1,569	84	2013-12-01
1537	JyTy	FIN	1,530	1,552	17	2026-02-22
1538	Eendracht Aalst	BEL	1,530	1,587	343	2022-09-25
1539	IL Øygard	NOR	1,530	1,530	4	2026-09-16
1540	Gelbison	ITA	1,530	1,548	40	2026-08-11
1541	AC Pavia	ITA	1,530	1,535	5	2015-12-02
1542	Arendal Fotball	NOR	1,530	1,542	69	2026-09-16
1543	Thisted FC	DEN	1,530	1,579	30	2025-09-24
1544	FC Ambrosiana Lausanne	SUI	1,530	1,553	16	1950-10-15
1545	Aetos Orfano	GRE	1,530	1,544	4	2019-10-02
1546	Nousu	FIN	1,530	1,530	2	2026-02-22
1547	Ethnikos Asteras	GRE	1,530	1,638	233	2012-10-24
1548	Van	ARM	1,530	1,624	206	2026-09-26
1549	KPV -j	FIN	1,530	1,548	3	2014-03-01
1550	University of Tokyo LB	JPN	1,530	1,545	17	1958-09-09

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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result	Odds	1 / odds	Margin removed
Home win	2.00	50.0%	48.3%
Draw	3.50	28.6%	27.6%
Away win	4.00	25.0%	24.1%
Total	—	103.6%	100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.