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// Elo ratings 545,457 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,457
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,879 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,223 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,892 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,090 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,753 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,847 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,175 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,414 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,485 13.96% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,578 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.85% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.60% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.97% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.99% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.38% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,087 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,103 26.85% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,286 24.60% 0 — — —
150–199 6,430 22.97% 0 — — —
200–299 8,403 19.99% 0 — — —
300+ 6,493 12.38% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,306 2,306 2026-10-03
2 ENG · England 2,191 2,191 2026-10-03
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,136 2,209 2026-10-02
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 BEL · Belgium 2,038 2,175 2026-10-02
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,029 2,032 2026-10-03
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
17 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
18 ITA · Italy 1,937 2,095 2026-10-02
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,928 2,036 2026-10-03
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,934 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
1551 R. Stade Brainois BEL 1,530 1,550 35 2018-08-25
1552 Kochi United JPN 1,530 1,560 21 2025-06-11
1553 K. AC Betekom BEL 1,530 1,560 28 2018-08-12
1554 Pontevedra CF ESP 1,530 1,594 62 2026-08-19
1555 Comuna Recea ROU 1,530 1,552 11 2020-10-21
1556 UE Llagostera ESP 1,530 1,595 94 2020-12-16
1557 Amarante POR 1,530 1,530 8 2026-09-20
1558 Western Armenia — 1,530 1,573 16 2019-06-09
1559 Strømmen IF NOR 1,530 1,725 871 2026-10-03
1560 Burgdorf SUI 1,530 1,565 112 1997-08-17
1561 K. Olympia SC Wijgmaal BEL 1,530 1,566 79 2018-08-12
1562 Turun Palloseura M35 FIN 1,529 1,543 6 2024-04-16
1563 Al Ettifaq KSA 1,529 1,594 85 2026-09-11
1564 Upton Park ENG 1,529 1,581 39 1886-11-20
1565 Olimpia Poznań POL 1,529 1,550 25 1995-10-25
1566 Sagan Tosu JPN 1,529 1,676 507 2026-08-09
1567 Roskilde BK DEN 1,529 1,544 4 1963-11-30
1568 Pau FC FRA 1,529 1,587 241 2026-10-03
1569 SC KuFu-98 FIN 1,529 1,567 7 2013-03-16
1570 Skovbakken DEN 1,529 1,529 8 2015-08-11
1571 ASV Kittsee AUT 1,529 1,530 11 1980-08-17
1572 Ankara Havagücü TUR 1,529 1,539 4 1964-01-05
1573 Sănătatea Cluj ROU 1,529 1,583 40 2026-08-12
1574 Aris Limassol CYP 1,529 1,541 14 2026-10-03
1575 AC Ajaccio FRA 1,529 1,705 1,034 2025-05-10
1576 Nagoya Grampus JPN 1,529 1,738 529 2026-09-19
1577 ASK Stoob AUT 1,529 1,539 4 1997-09-27
1578 Versailles 78 FRA 1,529 1,532 9 2022-03-01
1579 RUFC Ransartoise BEL 1,529 1,529 8 2016-08-14
1580 Verbroedering Mechelen-aan-de-Maas BEL 1,529 1,529 5 1972-08-13
1581 Tochigi SC JPN 1,529 1,559 33 2025-06-11
1582 Fagiano Okayama JPN 1,529 1,566 74 2026-09-19
1583 Zamora CF ESP 1,529 1,529 12 2026-08-20
1584 SV Flavia Solva AUT 1,529 1,574 41 1997-08-15
1585 Torhout 1992 KM BEL 1,529 1,566 66 2018-08-04
1586 Zirka Kropyvnytskyi UKR 1,529 1,552 114 2018-09-26
1587 Moulins FRA 1,529 1,539 10 2016-01-02
1588 Palma del Río ESP 1,529 1,534 3 2025-10-30
1589 Rhode Island FC USA 1,529 1,529 6 2026-04-14
1590 Meiji University JPN 1,529 1,560 17 2024-05-26
1591 FC Altstetten (Zürich) SUI 1,529 1,613 93 2012-09-15
1592 Montevarchi ITA 1,529 1,529 76 2023-04-23
1593 Dalkurd FF SWE 1,529 1,616 75 2024-06-19
1594 Neom SC KSA 1,529 1,529 10 2026-09-13
1595 Mantes 78 FRA 1,529 1,535 4 2016-01-20
1596 Haminan Pallo-Kissat FIN 1,529 1,529 13 2025-04-16
1597 Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA 1,529 1,551 21 2026-04-15
1598 Buochs SUI 1,529 1,630 97 2021-09-18
1599 Petra Drnovice CZE 1,529 1,534 4 2000-08-19
1600 SUMU/sob FIN 1,529 1,529 14 2026-02-20
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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