What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 123 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Ukraine drew 32 where the draw model expected 27.5 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 1.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 28.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 09 Oct 2016 → 10 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 11 Oct 2013 → 15 Nov 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 10 Oct 2025 → 25 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 03 Sep 2020 → 17 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 15 Nov 2011 → 19 Jun 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 29 Mar 2011 → 11 Oct 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 01 May 1996 → 30 Apr 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 13 Nov 1994 → 11 Nov 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 03 Jun 2021 → 03 Jul 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 24 Mar 2016 → 21 Jun 2016 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 128 | 38 | 29.7% | 3 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 87 | 29 | 33.3% | 5 | 8 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 72 | 19 | 26.4% | 2 | 8 |
| UEFA Nations League | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | 0 | 6 |
| UEFA European Championship | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 0 | 5 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 0 | 2 |
| FIFA World Cup | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 3 |
| Canadian Shield | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 2024 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2023 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2022 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2021 | 18 | 9 | 50.0% | 7 |
| 2020 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2019 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2018 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2017 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2016 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 2015 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2014 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 2013 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 2012 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2011 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2010 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 2009 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 2007 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 2006 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 5 |
| 2005 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2004 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2003 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2002 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2001 | 13 | 7 | 53.8% | 3 |
| 2000 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1999 | 11 | 7 | 63.6% | 1 |
| 1998 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1997 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1996 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1995 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1994 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1993 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1992 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1979 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1928 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 02 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Oct 18:45 | Ukraine | vs | Northern Ireland | – / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Mon, 05 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Oct 18:45 | Ukraine | vs | Hungary | – / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.