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// Elo ratings 545,495 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,495
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,908 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,226 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,898 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,096 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,754 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,849 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,177 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,421 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,487 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,587 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.87% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.97% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 20.00% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.38% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,087 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,106 26.87% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,288 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,431 22.97% 0 — — —
200–299 8,405 20.00% 0 — — —
300+ 6,494 12.38% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011 2026-10-04
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,306 2,306 2026-10-03
2 ENG · England 2,191 2,191 2026-10-03
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,136 2,209 2026-10-02
5 POR · Portugal 2,087 2,088 2026-10-04
6 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 BEL · Belgium 2,038 2,175 2026-10-02
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,029 2,032 2026-10-03
10 NED · Netherlands 2,023 2,177 2026-10-04
11 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
12 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,972 2,053 2026-10-04
15 GER · Germany 1,964 2,254 2026-10-04
16 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
17 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
18 ITA · Italy 1,937 2,095 2026-10-02
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,928 2,036 2026-10-03
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,916 1,956 2026-10-04
24 DEN · Denmark 1,908 2,018 2026-10-04
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,934 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
4901 Progresul Sibiu ROU 1,496 1,508 6 1958-04-27
4902 Tirespor TUR 1,496 1,510 4 1991-11-27
4903 Obra Kościan POL 1,496 1,526 4 1998-07-24
4904 Vilvorde FC BEL 1,496 1,529 4 1935-03-31
4905 Vejen SF DEN 1,496 1,504 3 1963-11-24
4906 FCN Sint-Niklaas BEL 1,496 1,530 11 2009-08-16
4907 Nova Mutum Esporte Clube BRA 1,496 1,511 3 2023-03-15
4908 Bornova TUR 1,496 1,555 7 2025-09-17
4909 IFK Motala SWE 1,496 1,521 2 2002-04-24
4910 Alro Slatina ROU 1,496 1,508 5 2015-08-25
4911 FC Mariekerke BEL 1,496 1,524 12 2018-07-29
4912 R. US Bérismenil BEL 1,496 1,500 5 1982-08-15
4913 Saga Higashi High School JPN 1,496 1,512 2 2009-10-10
4914 Guangxi Liuzhou Liuyue CHN 1,496 1,521 5 2015-03-28
4915 FK Shkupi MKD 1,496 1,510 4 2019-08-19
4916 Étoile du Sahel TUN 1,496 1,510 3 2007-12-16
4917 US Pistoiese ITA 1,496 1,608 280 2026-08-22
4918 Nørrebro FF DEN 1,496 1,511 2 2021-09-08
4919 Hedera Millen BEL 1,496 1,530 6 2005-08-07
4920 KMR Biesen BEL 1,496 1,511 4 2017-08-13
4921 VG Oostende BEL 1,496 1,586 19 2013-07-28
4922 CSM Alexandria ROU 1,496 1,541 24 2026-07-29
4923 OSA FC USA 1,496 1,500 2 2017-05-17
4924 Royale Union ( (III)) BEL 1,496 1,500 1 1975-08-31
4925 Muret FRA 1,496 1,513 4 2016-01-03
4926 Rijnsburgse Boys NED 1,496 1,520 29 2026-08-04
4927 US Grosseto ITA 1,496 1,599 343 2026-08-02
4928 Rødde FK NOR 1,496 1,500 3 2015-05-06
4929 Nussdorfer AC AUT 1,496 1,537 9 1962-01-28
4930 R. Espoir Rossignol BEL 1,496 1,509 2 2013-08-04
4931 FCM Flyeralarm Traiskirchen AUT 1,496 1,512 2 2022-08-31
4932 Evosmos GRE 1,496 1,515 2 2024-09-08
4933 SV Mattersburg II AUT 1,496 1,508 2 2010-08-12
4934 OuPa FIN 1,496 1,503 5 2026-03-01
4935 Dayton Dutch Lions USA 1,496 1,512 2 2019-05-14
4936 LZS Leśnica POL 1,496 1,508 2 2008-08-27
4937 Stormvogels Drieslinter BEL 1,496 1,508 2 1978-08-06
4938 L'lle-Rousse FRA 1,496 1,522 4 2015-11-21
4939 Victoria Țăndărei ROU 1,496 1,508 2 2014-07-30
4940 SaTo FIN 1,496 1,508 2 2011-02-05
4941 Garbarnia II Kraków POL 1,496 1,508 2 1983-08-13
4942 SC Anthisnois BEL 1,496 1,508 2 1953-11-22
4943 Arosa ESP 1,496 1,500 3 2026-08-01
4944 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ESP 1,496 1,519 7 2026-08-08
4945 FC Domdidier SUI 1,496 1,542 34 2011-09-17
4946 FC Paradiso SUI 1,496 1,502 4 2024-09-14
4947 Grulla Morioka JPN 1,496 1,513 9 2018-05-27
4948 Panaderia Pulido ESP 1,496 1,500 1 2021-12-01
4949 SC Emmen SUI 1,496 1,522 26 2024-09-13
4950 Baotou Fanmeng CHN 1,496 1,528 4 2018-01-01
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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