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// Elo ratings 545,489 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,489
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,903 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,226 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,896 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,095 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,754 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,849 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,176 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,420 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,487 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,586 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.87% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.97% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 20.00% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.38% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,087 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,106 26.87% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,287 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,431 22.97% 0 — — —
200–299 8,405 20.00% 0 — — —
300+ 6,494 12.38% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011 2026-10-04
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,306 2,306 2026-10-03
2 ENG · England 2,191 2,191 2026-10-03
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,136 2,209 2026-10-02
5 POR · Portugal 2,087 2,088 2026-10-04
6 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 BEL · Belgium 2,038 2,175 2026-10-02
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,029 2,032 2026-10-03
10 NED · Netherlands 2,023 2,177 2026-10-04
11 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
12 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,972 2,053 2026-10-04
15 GER · Germany 1,964 2,254 2026-10-04
16 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
17 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
18 ITA · Italy 1,937 2,095 2026-10-02
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,928 2,036 2026-10-03
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,916 1,956 2026-10-04
24 DEN · Denmark 1,908 2,018 2026-10-04
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,934 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
2751 Feniks-Mariupol UKR 1,510 1,524 13 2026-09-09
2752 FC Germania FIN 1,510 1,510 6 2026-03-08
2753 América de Cali COL 1,510 1,510 5 2020-01-19
2754 K. FC Vigor Hamme BEL 1,510 1,537 22 2017-08-19
2755 Notodden FK NOR 1,510 1,679 232 2026-09-16
2756 SV Rödinghausen GER 1,510 1,510 4 2022-07-31
2757 AC Arbedo-Castione SUI 1,510 1,519 3 2022-11-08
2758 Greve DEN 1,510 1,598 19 2023-08-08
2759 Ternana Calcio ITA 1,510 1,668 881 2026-04-26
2760 Megas Alexandros GRE 1,510 1,542 14 1969-05-14
2761 Canet Roussillon FC FRA 1,510 1,529 8 2025-12-19
2762 KVK Tienen BEL 1,510 1,540 87 2026-08-01
2763 UDI 19 NED 1,510 1,524 2 2026-09-23
2764 FC St-Hubert BEL 1,510 1,523 15 1983-08-13
2765 Imperial University of Kyoto JPN 1,510 1,535 3 1928-10-28
2766 Voința Cudalbi ROU 1,510 1,510 2 2024-07-31
2767 Siirt İl Özel İdare TUR 1,510 1,550 15 2023-09-27
2768 Chieti ITA 1,510 1,516 2 2012-08-12
2769 Komeetat/Piuku FIN 1,510 1,514 4 2026-03-01
2770 Kolding B DEN 1,510 1,514 5 2025-08-05
2771 Crumlin United IRL 1,510 1,532 32 2026-07-17
2772 Ypiranga Futebol Clube (Erechim) BRA 1,510 1,528 21 2026-03-11
2773 Start Otwock POL 1,510 1,535 12 2011-07-21
2774 SV Grödig AUT 1,510 1,674 147 2021-07-16
2775 Asteras Athens GRE 1,510 1,568 30 1958-03-30
2776 FC Feuerthalen SUI 1,510 1,523 5 1968-09-21
2777 RU Wallonne Ciney BEL 1,510 1,567 46 2018-08-04
2778 Arlanda FF SWE 1,510 1,522 2 2000-09-20
2779 FC Reinach BL SUI 1,510 1,528 5 1971-10-02
2780 Club Atlético Fénix ARG 1,510 1,510 2 2011-09-13
2781 Dali Ruilong CHN 1,510 1,527 4 2013-07-10
2782 Kazakhstan KAZ 1,510 1,691 272 2026-10-02
2783 Esporte Clube Internacional (Lages) BRA 1,510 1,510 2 2016-04-20
2784 L'Aquila ITA 1,510 1,521 9 2026-08-01
2785 Flota Gdynia POL 1,510 1,512 2 1951-03-25
2786 Roda JC Kerkrade NED 1,510 1,715 907 2026-08-01
2787 TK Meldert BEL 1,510 1,522 2 2001-08-19
2788 Brittany — 1,510 1,524 12 2013-05-28
2789 Shenyang Shenbei CHN 1,510 1,519 9 2014-07-15
2790 SV Kobbegem BEL 1,510 1,511 2 2018-08-05
2791 Gagra GEO 1,510 1,510 2 2011-08-19
2792 KVV Zelzate BEL 1,510 1,510 16 2018-08-05
2793 SK Artis Brno CZE 1,510 1,510 1 2026-10-03
2794 Tuggen SUI 1,510 1,610 76 2024-08-17
2795 Luboński KS POL 1,510 1,525 3 2012-08-11
2796 Kilnamanagh IRL 1,510 1,521 2 2021-08-27
2797 K. FC Herentals BEL 1,510 1,565 57 2018-08-05
2798 Ribadesella ESP 1,510 1,510 2 2026-10-04
2799 Radomiak II Radom POL 1,510 1,522 3 1985-08-07
2800 Metalul Sibiu ROU 1,510 1,517 4 1951-09-05
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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