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// Elo ratings 545,488 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,488
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,902 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,226 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,896 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,095 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,754 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,848 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,176 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,420 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,487 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,586 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.87% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.97% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 20.00% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.38% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,087 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,106 26.87% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,287 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,431 22.97% 0 — — —
200–299 8,405 20.00% 0 — — —
300+ 6,494 12.38% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011 2026-10-04
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,306 2,306 2026-10-03
2 ENG · England 2,191 2,191 2026-10-03
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,136 2,209 2026-10-02
5 POR · Portugal 2,087 2,088 2026-10-04
6 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 BEL · Belgium 2,038 2,175 2026-10-02
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,029 2,032 2026-10-03
10 NED · Netherlands 2,023 2,177 2026-10-04
11 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
12 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,972 2,053 2026-10-04
15 GER · Germany 1,964 2,254 2026-10-04
16 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
17 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
18 ITA · Italy 1,937 2,095 2026-10-02
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,928 2,036 2026-10-03
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,916 1,956 2026-10-04
24 DEN · Denmark 1,908 2,018 2026-10-04
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,934 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
2701 Ariana FC SWE 1,511 1,520 2 2024-08-22
2702 União Santarém POR 1,511 1,511 2 2026-09-20
2703 FC Korsholm YB FIN 1,511 1,522 2 2011-02-27
2704 De Treffers NED 1,511 1,511 36 2026-08-08
2705 Croydon ENG 1,511 1,520 3 1979-12-18
2706 San Francisco Deltas USA 1,511 1,525 4 2017-06-14
2707 Team Altamura ITA 1,511 1,511 72 2026-04-26
2708 FC Wittenbach SUI 1,511 1,531 15 2022-08-20
2709 Olympique de Genève FC SUI 1,511 1,522 2 2019-09-14
2710 Norrvalla FF FIN 1,511 1,521 10 2026-02-21
2711 Gaziantepspor TUR 1,511 1,744 913 2018-09-26
2712 Victoria Adunații-Copăceni ROU 1,511 1,523 3 2025-08-06
2713 SV Seebach ZH SUI 1,511 1,521 9 1974-08-31
2714 KSV Oudenaarde BEL 1,510 1,572 79 2026-08-02
2715 Pokuttia Kolomyia UKR 1,510 1,553 10 2026-08-23
2716 Inter Cristian ROU 1,510 1,523 3 2014-08-26
2717 Locomotiva Craiova ROU 1,510 1,518 5 1980-12-03
2718 62 Pertekspor TUR 1,510 1,510 5 2018-11-01
2719 Inter Nashville FC USA 1,510 1,524 2 2018-05-16
2720 Cercle des Sports de Marchienne-Monceau BEL 1,510 1,529 3 1935-03-24
2721 Górnik II Knurów POL 1,510 1,512 2 1988-08-03
2722 R.Leop.Uccle Forestoise BEL 1,510 1,523 2 2002-08-11
2723 CS St-Josse BEL 1,510 1,548 9 1964-08-02
2724 SV Wallern AUT 1,510 1,510 9 2026-07-26
2725 FC Tiamo Hirakata JPN 1,510 1,510 2 2020-10-28
2726 RWDM Brussels BEL 1,510 1,521 4 2026-08-09
2727 Shakhtar Sverdlovsk UKR 1,510 1,522 16 2013-10-30
2728 Anápolis Futebol Clube BRA 1,510 1,511 5 2026-03-12
2729 Jinan Xingzhou CHN 1,510 1,522 5 2023-05-30
2730 Fearon Athletic Dublin IRL 1,510 1,526 3 1937-03-21
2731 FC Ulvila FIN 1,510 1,518 3 2023-04-01
2732 Željezničar Sarajevo BIH 1,510 1,590 70 2025-07-29
2733 K. Wezel Sp. FC BEL 1,510 1,519 2 2001-08-05
2734 Sporting Houthalen BEL 1,510 1,529 22 1979-07-29
2735 Mauritania MTN 1,510 1,610 273 2026-06-08
2736 Bandırmaspor TUR 1,510 1,542 54 2025-12-04
2737 América Futebol Clube (Rio Grande do Norte) BRA 1,510 1,541 38 2026-03-11
2738 Yunnan Cuanhe CHN 1,510 1,512 2 2026-04-19
2739 Jong Zulte BEL 1,510 1,519 3 2018-08-12
2740 Jeunesse d'Eupen BEL 1,510 1,535 4 1935-03-31
2741 Güzide Gebzespor TUR 1,510 1,519 13 2025-09-17
2742 Clapham Rovers ENG 1,510 1,629 44 1886-10-30
2743 Tłoki Gorzyce POL 1,510 1,534 22 2005-10-26
2744 Çankaya TUR 1,510 1,523 23 2025-12-03
2745 La Vitreenne FRA 1,510 1,526 12 2022-01-02
2746 K. FC Kuurne Sport BEL 1,510 1,556 19 1982-08-01
2747 Kingstonian ENG 1,510 1,530 21 2019-11-30
2748 1. Wiener Neustädter SC AUT 1,510 1,543 72 2002-03-19
2749 Volta Redonda Futebol Clube BRA 1,510 1,527 15 2026-03-19
2750 Heers BEL 1,510 1,512 4 1973-08-15
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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