How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,224

Teams rated14,930

Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25

Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,671 matches

drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	With odds	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	67,203	27.40%	22,161	29.39%	28.79%	-1.08%
25–49	72,871	26.31%	21,925	28.62%	28.66%	-3.14%
50–74	79,058	25.02%	20,405	28.41%	28.34%	-2.77%
75–99	64,726	25.22%	18,710	28.04%	27.91%	-2.60%
100–149	86,813	25.25%	29,683	26.91%	26.93%	-3.11%
150–199	53,161	23.72%	20,326	25.50%	25.26%	-2.52%
200–299	49,383	20.57%	19,016	21.77%	22.31%	-5.79%
300+	22,456	13.95%	8,643	14.52%	16.00%	-12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches

drew How often each rating gap actually drew.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	5,165	27.45%	—	—	—
25–49	5,086	25.56%	—	—	—
50–74	5,101	26.84%	—	—	—
75–99	4,608	25.80%	—	—	—
100–149	8,280	24.59%	—	—	—
150–199	6,426	22.98%	—	—	—
200–299	8,397	19.97%	—	—	—
300+	6,490	12.37%	—	—	—

Top clubs by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	GER · FC Bayern München	2,315	2,328	2026-09-18
2	ENG · Manchester City	2,253	2,331	2026-09-20
3	ENG · Arsenal	2,244	2,293	2026-09-19
4	ESP · Barcelona	2,209	2,243	2026-09-19
5	FRA · Paris Saint-Germain	2,154	2,231	2026-09-20
6	ESP · Real Madrid	2,139	2,237	2026-09-20
7	ITA · Inter Milan	2,127	2,202	2026-09-19
8	NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt	2,120	2,143	2026-09-20
9	ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion	2,103	2,103	2026-09-19
10	ENG · Liverpool	2,098	2,285	2026-09-20
11	GER · Borussia Dortmund	2,091	2,116	2026-09-19
12	ENG · Aston Villa	2,073	2,162	2026-09-19
13	NOR · Viking FK	2,071	2,097	2026-09-20
14	ENG · Brentford	2,068	2,068	2026-09-18
15	ENG · Manchester United	2,065	2,147	2026-09-20
16	ENG · Bournemouth	2,058	2,073	2026-09-20
17	GER · Bayer Leverkusen	2,055	2,190	2026-09-20
18	POR · Sporting CP	2,054	2,145	2026-09-19
19	ESP · Atlético Madrid	2,042	2,134	2026-09-20
20	ENG · Leeds United	2,030	2,033	2026-09-20
21	POR · SL Benfica	2,026	2,071	2026-09-20
22	ITA · AS Roma	2,024	2,070	2026-09-19
23	ENG · Chelsea	2,022	2,185	2026-09-18
24	BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	2,018	2,037	2026-09-20
25	GER · VfB Stuttgart	2,016	2,050	2026-09-25
26	ENG · Newcastle United	2,014	2,141	2026-09-19
27	POR · Porto	2,010	2,086	2026-09-20
28	RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg	2,009	2,011	2026-09-27
29	ENG · Everton	2,007	2,009	2026-09-19
30	ITA · Juventus	2,005	2,200	2026-09-20

Top national teams by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	ESP · Spain	2,304	2,304	2026-09-29
2	ARG · Argentina	2,181	2,198	2026-07-19
3	ENG · England	2,164	2,174	2026-09-29
4	FRA · France	2,150	2,209	2026-09-28
5	MAR · Morocco	2,083	2,106	2026-07-09
6	POR · Portugal	2,051	2,088	2026-09-27
7	COL · Colombia	2,046	2,115	2026-07-07
8	NED · Netherlands	2,025	2,177	2026-09-27
9	SUI · Switzerland	2,024	2,032	2026-09-29
10	JPN · Japan	2,022	2,063	2026-06-29
11	BRA · Brazil	2,021	2,212	2026-07-05
12	BEL · Belgium	2,021	2,175	2026-09-28
13	NOR · Norway	2,016	2,053	2026-09-27
14	MEX · Mexico	2,015	2,054	2026-07-05
15	GER · Germany	1,957	2,254	2026-09-27
16	CRO · Croatia	1,955	2,036	2026-09-29
17	NGA · Nigeria	1,950	1,961	2026-06-10
18	AUS · Australia	1,949	2,002	2026-07-03
19	IRN · Iran	1,934	2,017	2026-06-26
20	ECU · Ecuador	1,932	1,977	2026-06-30
21	AUT · Austria	1,925	1,956	2026-09-27
22	ITA · Italy	1,923	2,095	2026-09-28
23	SEN · Senegal	1,922	1,990	2026-07-01
24	DEN · Denmark	1,916	2,018	2026-09-27
25	ALG · Algeria	1,908	1,961	2026-07-02
26	KOR · South Korea	1,900	1,985	2026-06-24
27	EGY · Egypt	1,888	1,962	2026-07-07
28	CIV · Ivory Coast	1,887	2,007	2026-06-30
29	TUR · Turkey	1,882	1,978	2026-09-28
30	URU · Uruguay	1,881	2,053	2026-06-26

All rated teams 14,594 teams

Type Country

Team

▸ Reset

#	Team	Country	Rating	Peak	Matches	Last match
1001	Floridsdorfer AC	AUT	1,545	1,599	74	2026-07-24
1002	Etoile Carouge	SUI	1,545	1,632	177	2025-09-19
1003	Mediaș	ROU	1,545	1,545	6	2026-08-05
1004	FC Charleroi	BEL	1,545	1,568	6	2012-08-19
1005	Avispa Fukuoka	JPN	1,545	1,682	270	2026-09-19
1006	RRC Hamoir	BEL	1,545	1,557	37	2018-08-19
1007	Náutico	BRA	1,545	1,558	109	2025-05-20
1008	FC Le Mont	SUI	1,545	1,555	35	2016-09-17
1009	K. Beerschot VAV	BEL	1,545	1,625	99	2026-08-08
1010	US Rebecquoise	BEL	1,545	1,571	16	2019-12-04
1011	Muşspor (2015)	TUR	1,545	1,565	16	2025-12-02
1012	Union Clodiense	ITA	1,545	1,545	38	2025-04-25
1013	FC Viikingit	FIN	1,545	1,586	26	2023-03-04
1014	Standaard Wetteren	BEL	1,545	1,597	30	2014-08-10
1015	Victoria Cluj	ROU	1,545	1,560	12	1940-03-17
1016	Koivukylän Palloseura	FIN	1,545	1,545	11	2026-02-22
1017	Konya Gençlerbirliği	TUR	1,545	1,557	5	1964-11-22
1018	Schaffhausen	SUI	1,544	1,742	239	2026-06-27
1019	Le Puy	FRA	1,544	1,550	16	2026-01-10
1020	KR Reykjavík	ISL	1,544	1,574	76	2019-08-19
1021	SV Amateure	AUT	1,544	1,556	5	1920-07-04
1022	K. Wezel Sport FC	BEL	1,544	1,589	62	2018-07-28
1023	FH Hafnarfjörður	ISL	1,544	1,565	54	2018-09-09
1024	SD Ponferradina	ESP	1,544	1,650	456	2026-08-19
1025	Sandnes Ulf	NOR	1,544	1,781	683	2026-09-20
1026	Ternopil	UKR	1,544	1,565	12	2016-09-21
1027	Austria Wien Reserves	AUT	1,544	1,544	6	2009-09-18
1028	Kriens	SUI	1,544	1,629	131	2025-08-16
1029	TP-Seinäjoki	FIN	1,544	1,558	14	2006-06-22
1030	Sport Vermaak Mol	BEL	1,544	1,565	17	1983-08-28
1031	US Catanzaro	ITA	1,544	1,629	427	2026-09-19
1032	NuPS	FIN	1,544	1,567	19	2025-04-15
1033	FA2000	DEN	1,544	1,546	3	2023-09-26
1034	Stade Lausanne	SUI	1,544	1,580	131	1999-09-25
1035	Chindia Târgoviște	ROU	1,544	1,631	224	2026-08-12
1036	1. FC Köln II	GER	1,544	1,597	70	2012-05-19
1037	Górnik Pszów	POL	1,544	1,561	13	1994-05-11
1038	JS Taminoise	BEL	1,543	1,562	31	2018-08-05
1039	Barracas Central	ARG	1,543	1,590	204	2026-09-21
1040	Sudet	FIN	1,543	1,555	10	2014-03-15
1041	NK Maribor	SVN	1,543	1,615	119	2026-09-28
1042	Matador Púchov	SVK	1,543	1,549	12	2003-08-19
1043	Arka Gdynia	POL	1,543	1,633	283	2026-05-23
1044	CD Nacional	POR	1,543	1,722	662	2026-09-19
1045	Vizela	POR	1,543	1,638	113	2026-09-20
1046	Sporting Kristina	FIN	1,543	1,567	7	2024-04-16
1047	Ishøj IF	DEN	1,543	1,587	14	2025-09-02
1048	Neuchâtel Xamax	SUI	1,543	1,687	363	2026-09-25
1049	Muttenz	SUI	1,543	1,549	62	2015-10-28
1050	Neman Grodno	BLR	1,543	1,556	14	2025-10-04

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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result	Odds	1 / odds	Margin removed
Home win	2.00	50.0%	48.3%
Draw	3.50	28.6%	27.6%
Away win	4.00	25.0%	24.1%
Total	—	103.6%	100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.