How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,495

Teams rated14,934

Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25

Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,908 matches

drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	With odds	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	67,226	27.39%	22,161	29.39%	28.79%	-1.08%
25–49	72,898	26.31%	21,925	28.62%	28.66%	-3.14%
50–74	79,096	25.02%	20,405	28.41%	28.34%	-2.77%
75–99	64,754	25.22%	18,710	28.04%	27.91%	-2.60%
100–149	86,849	25.25%	29,683	26.91%	26.93%	-3.11%
150–199	53,177	23.72%	20,326	25.50%	25.26%	-2.52%
200–299	49,421	20.56%	19,016	21.77%	22.31%	-5.79%
300+	22,487	13.95%	8,643	14.52%	16.00%	-12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,587 matches

drew How often each rating gap actually drew.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	5,166	27.45%	—	—	—
25–49	5,087	25.56%	—	—	—
50–74	5,106	26.87%	—	—	—
75–99	4,610	25.81%	—	—	—
100–149	8,288	24.59%	—	—	—
150–199	6,431	22.97%	—	—	—
200–299	8,405	20.00%	—	—	—
300+	6,494	12.38%	—	—	—

Top clubs by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	GER · FC Bayern München	2,315	2,328	2026-09-18
2	ENG · Manchester City	2,253	2,331	2026-09-20
3	ENG · Arsenal	2,244	2,293	2026-09-19
4	ESP · Barcelona	2,209	2,243	2026-09-19
5	FRA · Paris Saint-Germain	2,154	2,231	2026-09-20
6	ESP · Real Madrid	2,139	2,237	2026-09-20
7	ITA · Inter Milan	2,127	2,202	2026-10-03
8	NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt	2,122	2,143	2026-10-01
9	ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion	2,103	2,103	2026-09-19
10	ENG · Liverpool	2,098	2,285	2026-09-20
11	GER · Borussia Dortmund	2,091	2,116	2026-09-19
12	ENG · Aston Villa	2,077	2,162	2026-10-02
13	NOR · Viking FK	2,072	2,097	2026-10-01
14	ENG · Brentford	2,068	2,068	2026-09-18
15	ENG · Manchester United	2,065	2,147	2026-09-20
16	ENG · Bournemouth	2,058	2,073	2026-09-20
17	GER · Bayer Leverkusen	2,055	2,190	2026-09-20
18	POR · Sporting CP	2,054	2,145	2026-09-19
19	ESP · Atlético Madrid	2,042	2,134	2026-09-20
20	ENG · Leeds United	2,030	2,033	2026-09-20
21	POR · SL Benfica	2,026	2,071	2026-09-20
22	ITA · AS Roma	2,024	2,070	2026-09-19
23	ENG · Chelsea	2,022	2,185	2026-09-18
24	GER · VfB Stuttgart	2,018	2,050	2026-10-01
25	BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	2,018	2,037	2026-09-20
26	POR · Porto	2,014	2,086	2026-10-02
27	ENG · Newcastle United	2,014	2,141	2026-09-19
28	RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg	2,010	2,011	2026-10-04
29	ENG · Everton	2,007	2,009	2026-09-19
30	ITA · Juventus	1,996	2,200	2026-10-02

Top national teams by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	ESP · Spain	2,306	2,306	2026-10-03
2	ENG · England	2,191	2,191	2026-10-03
3	ARG · Argentina	2,181	2,198	2026-07-19
4	FRA · France	2,136	2,209	2026-10-02
5	POR · Portugal	2,087	2,088	2026-10-04
6	MAR · Morocco	2,083	2,106	2026-07-09
7	COL · Colombia	2,046	2,115	2026-07-07
8	BEL · Belgium	2,038	2,175	2026-10-02
9	SUI · Switzerland	2,029	2,032	2026-10-03
10	NED · Netherlands	2,023	2,177	2026-10-04
11	JPN · Japan	2,022	2,063	2026-06-29
12	BRA · Brazil	2,021	2,212	2026-07-05
13	MEX · Mexico	2,015	2,054	2026-07-05
14	NOR · Norway	1,972	2,053	2026-10-04
15	GER · Germany	1,964	2,254	2026-10-04
16	NGA · Nigeria	1,950	1,961	2026-06-10
17	AUS · Australia	1,949	2,002	2026-07-03
18	ITA · Italy	1,937	2,095	2026-10-02
19	IRN · Iran	1,934	2,017	2026-06-26
20	ECU · Ecuador	1,932	1,977	2026-06-30
21	CRO · Croatia	1,928	2,036	2026-10-03
22	SEN · Senegal	1,922	1,990	2026-07-01
23	AUT · Austria	1,916	1,956	2026-10-04
24	DEN · Denmark	1,908	2,018	2026-10-04
25	ALG · Algeria	1,908	1,961	2026-07-02
26	KOR · South Korea	1,900	1,985	2026-06-24
27	EGY · Egypt	1,888	1,962	2026-07-07
28	CIV · Ivory Coast	1,887	2,007	2026-06-30
29	URU · Uruguay	1,881	2,053	2026-06-26
30	USA · United States	1,880	2,011	2026-07-06

All rated teams 14,934 teams

Type Country

Team

▸ Reset

#	Team	Country	Rating	Peak	Matches	Last match
5001	Unión Deportiva Los Garres	ESP	1,496	1,505	3	2025-10-29
5002	FC Rätia Bludenz	AUT	1,496	1,500	2	1977-10-26
5003	FC Paços de Ferreira	POR	1,496	1,713	700	2026-08-29
5004	Warmia Olsztyn	POL	1,496	1,525	6	1998-09-30
5005	SC Beira-Mar	POR	1,496	1,643	365	2026-09-19
5006	Vitória Futebol Clube (Espírito Santo)	BRA	1,496	1,507	2	2020-02-18
5007	ASF Andrézieux-Bouthéon	FRA	1,496	1,510	7	2021-12-19
5008	Bureå IF	SWE	1,496	1,512	2	2005-04-19
5009	Academica Balș	ROU	1,496	1,500	2	2026-07-29
5010	Pispalan Ponnistus-79	FIN	1,496	1,504	6	2025-03-16
5011	Loiske	FIN	1,496	1,522	15	2025-03-30
5012	Czarni / Orlęta Dęblin	POL	1,496	1,511	2	1999-09-15
5013	WIK Eine	BEL	1,496	1,526	11	2016-08-07
5014	Bigaspor	TUR	1,496	1,503	10	2023-11-01
5015	Ethnikos Neo Keramidi	GRE	1,496	1,503	4	2024-09-14
5016	Karlivka	UKR	1,496	1,515	2	2013-08-07
5017	Sociedade Esportiva e Recreativa Caxias do Sul	BRA	1,496	1,517	12	2026-02-25
5018	Unirea Drăgășani	ROU	1,496	1,512	2	1972-03-15
5019	Confiança	BRA	1,496	1,517	17	2026-05-14
5020	Piast Iłowa	POL	1,496	1,508	2	1983-08-13
5021	R. CS Brainois	BEL	1,496	1,545	47	2025-09-07
5022	Stade Gedinnois	BEL	1,496	1,520	29	2017-08-06
5023	Chasetown	ENG	1,496	1,508	6	2008-01-05
5024	SV Bad Schallerbach	AUT	1,496	1,500	6	2006-10-24
5025	UFC Frauenkirchen	AUT	1,496	1,512	2	1970-03-30
5026	Mostiștea Ulmu	ROU	1,496	1,508	4	2020-10-21
5027	RCS Verviétois	BEL	1,496	1,559	78	2014-08-10
5028	FC.Grun-Weiss Amel	BEL	1,496	1,508	2	2002-08-11
5029	Jeunesse Aischoise	BEL	1,496	1,533	31	2018-07-29
5030	Rubi	ESP	1,496	1,500	2	2023-11-01
5031	Libertatea Sibiu	ROU	1,496	1,508	2	1953-10-07
5032	Alvear Foot-Ball Club	ARG	1,496	1,500	2	2012-10-24
5033	Ciudad de Lorqui	ESP	1,496	1,500	2	2009-11-10
5034	FSV Union Fürstenwalde	GER	1,496	1,500	1	2020-09-12
5035	FC Jonction-Gardy	SUI	1,496	1,512	2	1942-11-15
5036	Okęcie Warszawa	POL	1,496	1,518	5	2002-09-11
5037	Tarup-Paarup IF	DEN	1,496	1,540	11	2024-08-06
5038	FC Zwarte Duivels Oud-Heverlee	BEL	1,496	1,514	2	1983-08-07
5039	Shaanxi Chang'an Athletic	CHN	1,495	1,515	11	2022-08-21
5040	Olimpija Rīga	LVA	1,495	1,500	2	1994-08-25
5041	KAS Eupen	BEL	1,495	1,701	401	2026-10-01
5042	Carquefou JA	FRA	1,495	1,538	6	2014-01-05
5043	Moreno Valley	USA	1,495	1,512	2	2017-05-17
5044	Chênois	SUI	1,495	1,626	147	2022-08-20
5045	AS Eupen ( (III))	BEL	1,495	1,500	1	1975-11-01
5046	Bamber Bridge	ENG	1,495	1,517	4	2026-07-14
5047	Oltul Sfântu Gheorghe	ROU	1,495	1,512	5	1973-12-05
5048	Zwaluwen '30	NED	1,495	1,507	5	2026-09-23
5049	FC Kilchberg-Rüschlikon	SUI	1,495	1,515	6	2002-08-22
5050	Eendracht VV Aalter	BEL	1,495	1,538	37	2018-08-12

page 101 / 299 ‹ prev next ›

Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result	Odds	1 / odds	Margin removed
Home win	2.00	50.0%	48.3%
Draw	3.50	28.6%	27.6%
Away win	4.00	25.0%	24.1%
Total	—	103.6%	100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.