What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 125 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Serbia drew 31 where the draw model expected 27.8 from those particular fixtures — about 3 more, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 29.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 14 Oct 2014 → 31 May 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 28 May 2008 → 12 Aug 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 10 Jun 2025 → 01 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 23 Dec 1994 → 24 Apr 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 09 Oct 2021 → 09 Jun 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 11 Sep 2012 → 14 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 23 Mar 2018 → 07 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 07 Jun 2019 → 14 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 10 Oct 2009 → 29 May 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 05 Jun 2010 → 03 Sep 2010 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 136 | 30 | 22.1% | 4 | 9 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 78 | 19 | 24.4% | 7 | 7 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 66 | 20 | 30.3% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA Nations League | 29 | 10 | 34.5% | 3 | 3 |
| FIFA World Cup | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA European Championship | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 0 | 3 |
| Kirin Cup | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 | 2 |
| Millennium Cup | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Korea Cup | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| Lunar New Year Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Kirin Challenge Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2024 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 4 |
| 2023 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 5 |
| 2022 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2021 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 2020 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2019 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 2018 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 8 |
| 2017 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2016 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 2015 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2014 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2013 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2012 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 2011 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2010 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2009 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 7 |
| 2008 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 2007 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2005 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 4 |
| 2004 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2003 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2002 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 5 |
| 2001 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 5 |
| 2000 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 1999 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1998 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1997 | 14 | 6 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 1996 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 1995 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1994 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 18:45 | Netherlands | vs | Serbia | – / – / – | 10.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.