What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 113 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Latvia drew 34 where the draw model expected 23.2 from those particular fixtures — about 11 more, or 2.6 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 6 times running. A flat league average would have expected 26.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 07 Oct 2006 → 11 Oct 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 02 Sep 2016 → 03 Sep 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 09 Oct 1999 → 24 Mar 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 21 Apr 1998 → 24 Feb 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 09 Nov 1996 → 11 Jul 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 15 Nov 1994 → 11 Oct 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 22 Mar 2023 → 21 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 21 Mar 2019 → 19 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 02 Jun 2001 → 22 May 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 28 May 1931 → 27 Sep 1931 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 170 | 39 | 22.9% | 0 | 7 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 93 | 20 | 21.5% | 2 | 8 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 80 | 13 | 16.3% | 8 | 10 |
| Baltic Cup | 68 | 23 | 33.8% | 1 | 2 |
| UEFA Nations League | 26 | 11 | 42.3% | 0 | 5 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 2 | 3 |
| UEFA European Championship | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| King's Cup | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 | 1 |
| Malta International Tournament | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 2 |
| Four Nations Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Prime Minister's Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Olympic Games | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2025 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2024 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2023 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 6 |
| 2021 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 2020 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 2 |
| 2019 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2018 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2016 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2015 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2014 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2013 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 2012 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2011 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2010 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 |
| 2009 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 2008 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2007 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 2006 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 2005 | 15 | 6 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 2004 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 5 |
| 2003 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2002 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2001 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2000 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1999 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1998 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 10 |
| 1997 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 10 |
| 1996 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1995 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 1994 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1993 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1992 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1991 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1979 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1945 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1942 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1940 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 1936 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1935 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 1 |
| 1934 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1933 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1932 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1931 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1930 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1929 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1927 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1926 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1925 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1924 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1923 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1922 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 02 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Oct 16:00 | Latvia | vs | Montenegro | – / – / – | 27.3% |
|
| Mon, 05 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Oct 16:00 | Cyprus | vs | Latvia | – / – / – | 29.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.