What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 132 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Estonia drew 31 where the draw model expected 27.5 from those particular fixtures — about 3 more, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 31.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 21 Feb 1993 → 26 Oct 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 29 Feb 2012 → 07 Jun 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 01 Mar 1997 → 27 Nov 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 13 Nov 1994 → 11 Oct 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 16 Aug 2006 → 08 Sep 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 25 May 2011 → 11 Nov 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 24 Mar 2021 → 05 Sep 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 09 Jun 2015 → 17 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 31 May 2014 → 12 Nov 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 04 Jun 2000 → 10 Dec 2000 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 274 | 69 | 25.2% | 1 | 10 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 92 | 13 | 14.1% | 1 | 8 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 79 | 10 | 12.7% | 7 | 10 |
| Baltic Cup | 67 | 18 | 26.9% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Nations League | 26 | 8 | 30.8% | 0 | 5 |
| King's Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 |
| United Arab Emirates Friendship Tournament | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Malta International Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Four Nations Tournament | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| FIFA Series | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Olympic Games | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2024 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2023 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2022 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2021 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 8 |
| 2020 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2019 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 2018 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2017 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 7 |
| 2016 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 2015 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2014 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 8 |
| 2013 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 2012 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 13 |
| 2011 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 11 |
| 2010 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 3 |
| 2009 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 2008 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 2007 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 8 |
| 2006 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2005 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 2004 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2003 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 5 |
| 2002 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 2001 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 4 |
| 2000 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 1999 | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | 6 |
| 1998 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1997 | 16 | 1 | 6.3% | 14 |
| 1996 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 3 |
| 1995 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 1994 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 10 |
| 1993 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 13 |
| 1992 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1991 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1945 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1942 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1940 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1937 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 1936 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 1 |
| 1934 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1933 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1932 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1931 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1930 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1929 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1928 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1926 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1925 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1923 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1922 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 16:00 | Estonia | vs | Luxembourg | – / – / – | 29.7% |
|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | Estonia | vs | Iceland | – / – / – | 27.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.