What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 116 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Bosnia and Herzegovina drew 33 where the draw model expected 23.7 from those particular fixtures — about 9 more, or 2.2 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 5 times running. A flat league average would have expected 26.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 16 Oct 2012 → 09 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 23 Mar 2023 → 07 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 24 Mar 2007 → 30 Jan 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 01 Jun 2008 → 01 Apr 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 26 Feb 1997 → 05 Nov 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 08 Jun 2019 → 18 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 15 Nov 2011 → 11 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 10 Oct 2009 → 03 Jun 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 21 Mar 2025 → 09 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 15 Mar 2000 → 12 Jan 2001 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 91 | 26 | 28.6% | 0 | 6 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 76 | 18 | 23.7% | 0 | 6 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 76 | 12 | 15.8% | 11 | 11 |
| UEFA Nations League | 25 | 9 | 36.0% | 0 | 3 |
| FIFA World Cup | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 | 3 |
| Dunhill Cup | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Merdeka Tournament | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Millennium Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Kirin Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11 | 7 | 63.6% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 2023 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2021 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 3 |
| 2020 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2019 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2018 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 3 |
| 2017 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 2016 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 2015 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2014 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 2013 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 2012 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2011 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 2010 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2009 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 2008 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2007 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 2006 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2005 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2004 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 2003 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2002 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2001 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2000 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1999 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1998 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1997 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 9 |
| 1996 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1995 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 05 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Oct 18:45 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | vs | Poland | – / – / – | 26.7% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.