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No-draw streak ‹ back to records
WAL · National Team

Wales

A run of consecutive matches without a draw.
46
non-draws in a row
06 Feb 2008 → 26 Mar 2013
Was this a feat, or a coincidence? how this is worked out ›
Draws the model expected 9.9 across these 46 fixtures, one chance each
A flat league rate expected 11.2 the same question, asked without knowing the fixtures
Chance of no draw at all 1 in 81,370 for this run alone — and that overstates it
Runs this long, expected anywhere 1.02 across every run in the database

Each match gets its own draw chance from the five-feature logistic draw model, recalibrated by its isotonic map, and the run's own probability is those chances multiplied — the Poisson-binomial reading. A binomial at the run's average chance would have called it 1.13× more likely, which is the direction that error always goes. The last tile is the figure to quote: a run picked out because it is long is not a coincidence you get to be surprised by — why that is, and what the same question says about every other record here. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

Matches in this run
Date Home Score Away R Tournament
the draw before the run
21 Nov 2007 Germany 0–0 Wales D ITL · UEFA Euro qualification
☆ 06 Feb 2008 Wales 3–0 Norway H ITL · Friendly
☆ 26 Mar 2008 Luxembourg 0–2 Wales A ITL · Friendly
☆ 28 May 2008 Iceland 0–1 Wales A ITL · Friendly
☆ 01 Jun 2008 Netherlands 2–0 Wales H ITL · Friendly
☆ 20 Aug 2008 Wales 1–2 Georgia A ITL · Friendly
☆ 06 Sep 2008 Wales 1–0 Azerbaijan H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 10 Sep 2008 Russia 2–1 Wales H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 11 Oct 2008 Wales 2–0 Liechtenstein H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 15 Oct 2008 Germany 1–0 Wales H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 19 Nov 2008 Denmark 0–1 Wales A ITL · Friendly
☆ 11 Feb 2009 Wales 0–1 Poland A ITL · Friendly
☆ 28 Mar 2009 Wales 0–2 Finland A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 01 Apr 2009 Wales 0–2 Germany A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 29 May 2009 Wales 1–0 Estonia H ITL · Friendly
☆ 06 Jun 2009 Azerbaijan 0–1 Wales A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 12 Aug 2009 Montenegro 2–1 Wales H ITL · Friendly
☆ 09 Sep 2009 Wales 1–3 Russia A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 10 Oct 2009 Finland 2–1 Wales H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 14 Oct 2009 Liechtenstein 0–2 Wales A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 14 Nov 2009 Wales 3–0 Scotland H ITL · Friendly
☆ 03 Mar 2010 Wales 0–1 Sweden A ITL · Friendly
☆ 23 May 2010 Croatia 2–0 Wales H ITL · Friendly
☆ 11 Aug 2010 Wales 5–1 Luxembourg H ITL · Friendly
☆ 03 Sep 2010 Montenegro 1–0 Wales H ITL · UEFA Euro qualification
☆ 08 Oct 2010 Wales 0–1 Bulgaria A ITL · UEFA Euro qualification
☆ 12 Oct 2010 Switzerland 4–1 Wales H ITL · UEFA Euro qualification
☆ 08 Feb 2011 Republic of Ireland 3–0 Wales H ITL · Nations Cup
☆ 26 Mar 2011 Wales 0–2 England A ITL · UEFA Euro qualification
☆ 25 May 2011 Wales 1–3 Scotland A ITL · Nations Cup
☆ 27 May 2011 Wales 2–0 Northern Ireland H ITL · Nations Cup
☆ 10 Aug 2011 Wales 1–2 Australia A ITL · Friendly
☆ 02 Sep 2011 Wales 2–1 Montenegro H ITL · UEFA Euro qualification
☆ 06 Sep 2011 England 1–0 Wales H ITL · UEFA Euro qualification
☆ 07 Oct 2011 Wales 2–0 Switzerland H ITL · UEFA Euro qualification
☆ 11 Oct 2011 Bulgaria 0–1 Wales A ITL · UEFA Euro qualification
☆ 12 Nov 2011 Wales 4–1 Norway H ITL · Friendly
☆ 29 Feb 2012 Wales 0–1 Costa Rica A ITL · Friendly
☆ 27 May 2012 Mexico 2–0 Wales H ITL · Friendly
☆ 15 Aug 2012 Wales 0–2 Bosnia and Herzegovina A ITL · Friendly
☆ 07 Sep 2012 Wales 0–2 Belgium A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 11 Sep 2012 Serbia 6–1 Wales H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 12 Oct 2012 Wales 2–1 Scotland H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 16 Oct 2012 Croatia 2–0 Wales H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 06 Feb 2013 Wales 2–1 Austria H ITL · Friendly
☆ 22 Mar 2013 Scotland 1–2 Wales A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 26 Mar 2013 Wales 1–2 Croatia A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
the draw that ended it
14 Aug 2013 Wales 0–0 Republic of Ireland D ITL · Friendly

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