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// Elo ratings 545,213 matches rated · 14,929 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,213
Teams rated14,929
Evenly matched draw 26.06% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.48% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,660 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 26.06% 26.1% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 24.92% 24.9% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.90% 75–99 — drew 23.64% 23.6% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.94% 100–149 — drew 24.49% 24.5% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.27% 150–199 — drew 23.17% 23.2% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.34% 200–299 — drew 20.07% 20.1% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.05% 300+ — drew 13.48% 13.5% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,205 26.06% 22,135 29.31% 28.79% -1.32%
25–49 72,426 24.92% 21,804 28.79% 28.66% -2.65%
50–74 78,902 23.11% 20,470 28.21% 28.34% -3.41%
75–99 64,628 23.64% 18,577 28.21% 27.90% -2.02%
100–149 86,863 24.49% 29,709 26.90% 26.94% -3.20%
150–199 53,224 23.17% 20,283 25.45% 25.27% -2.70%
200–299 49,715 20.07% 19,156 21.90% 22.34% -5.33%
300+ 22,697 13.48% 8,735 14.49% 16.05% -12.98%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,323 2,336 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,260 2,337 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,252 2,300 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,221 2,245 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,160 2,237 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,148 2,245 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,132 2,203 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,124 2,147 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,110 2,110 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,104 2,292 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,099 2,123 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,078 2,168 2026-09-19
13 ENG · Brentford 2,074 2,074 2026-09-18
14 NOR · Viking FK 2,073 2,098 2026-09-20
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,071 2,157 2026-09-20
16 POR · Sporting CP 2,069 2,143 2026-09-19
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,066 2,196 2026-09-20
18 ENG · Bournemouth 2,064 2,079 2026-09-20
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,053 2,136 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,036 2,040 2026-09-20
21 ENG · Chelsea 2,033 2,198 2026-09-18
22 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,031 2,043 2026-09-20
23 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,031 2,057 2026-09-25
24 ITA · AS Roma 2,028 2,072 2026-09-19
25 POR · SL Benfica 2,027 2,073 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,020 2,138 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,017 2,089 2026-09-20
28 ENG · Everton 2,013 2,015 2026-09-19
29 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,011 2,013 2026-09-27
30 ITA · Juventus 2,010 2,204 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,593 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
351 Odds BK NOR 1,675 1,995 1,618 2026-09-20
352 VfL Osnabrück GER 1,675 1,688 761 2026-09-23
353 Santos BRA 1,674 1,750 614 2026-09-19
354 Oxford United ENG 1,674 1,707 1,885 2026-09-19
355 SV Ried AUT 1,673 1,735 470 2026-09-20
356 Excelsior Rotterdam NED 1,673 1,678 502 2026-09-19
357 VPS Vaasa FIN 1,673 1,850 478 2026-09-19
358 Vélez Sarsfield ARG 1,672 1,725 523 2026-09-21
359 York City ENG 1,671 1,697 1,617 2026-09-26
360 Raith Rovers SCO 1,670 1,732 1,288 2026-09-25
361 Korona Kielce POL 1,669 1,688 537 2026-09-19
362 LNZ Cherkasy UKR 1,669 1,710 110 2026-09-20
363 Gil Vicente POR 1,669 1,728 724 2026-09-19
364 Yverdon-Sport SUI 1,669 1,695 266 2026-07-18
365 Energie Cottbus GER 1,669 1,705 873 2026-09-20
366 Dynamo Makhachkala RUS 1,668 1,770 66 2026-08-01
367 Philadelphia Union USA 1,668 1,702 553 2026-09-27
368 Tianjin Jinmen Tiger CHN 1,668 1,677 444 2026-09-12
369 Argentinos Juniors ARG 1,668 1,696 477 2026-09-20
370 Arouca POR 1,668 1,719 329 2026-09-19
371 Yunnan Yukun CHN 1,667 1,675 67 2026-09-06
372 Leicester City ENG 1,667 2,049 1,998 2026-09-19
373 Ross County SCO 1,667 1,760 1,210 2026-09-19
374 Kalmar FF SWE 1,666 1,843 557 2026-09-20
375 UTA Arad ROU 1,665 1,689 384 2026-09-18
376 Spartak Yerevan ARM 1,664 1,701 41 2003-04-06
377 Qingdao West Coast CHN 1,664 1,665 103 2026-09-05
378 Inverness Caledonian Thistle SCO 1,664 1,805 1,229 2026-09-25
379 Dyskobolia Grodzisk Wlkp POL 1,664 1,683 60 2008-04-30
380 Krylya Sovetov Samara RUS 1,663 1,732 349 2026-08-01
381 Rosario Central ARG 1,663 1,696 494 2026-09-20
382 Vasco da Gama BRA 1,661 1,718 499 2026-09-20
383 Dynamo Dresden GER 1,661 1,706 882 2026-09-19
384 Charlton Athletic ENG 1,661 1,796 1,884 2026-09-19
385 Henan Songshan Longmen CHN 1,660 1,694 435 2026-09-12
386 Amkar Perm RUS 1,658 1,666 184 2018-05-20
387 Degerfors IF SWE 1,658 1,698 248 2026-09-20
388 Fredericia DEN 1,658 1,660 90 2026-06-27
389 Karlsruher SC GER 1,658 1,798 1,176 2026-09-19
390 Qarabağ FK AZE 1,658 1,705 134 2026-02-24
391 Rot-Weiss Essen GER 1,658 1,673 377 2026-09-20
392 WSG Tirol AUT 1,658 1,729 350 2026-09-24
393 Montpellier HSC FRA 1,657 1,866 1,296 2026-09-18
394 Egersunds IK NOR 1,657 1,739 175 2026-09-20
395 Piast Gliwice POL 1,657 1,761 581 2026-09-20
396 Zagłębie Lubin POL 1,656 1,706 589 2026-09-20
397 Nantes FRA 1,656 1,840 1,389 2026-09-19
398 Waterford IRL 1,655 1,684 478 2026-09-18
399 Mirassol BRA 1,655 1,717 73 2026-09-19
400 Tromsdalen UIL NOR 1,655 1,668 613 2026-09-08
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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