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// Elo ratings 545,486 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,486
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,900 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,226 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,896 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,094 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,754 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,848 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,175 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,420 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,487 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,586 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.87% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.97% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 20.00% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.38% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,087 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,106 26.87% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,287 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,431 22.97% 0 — — —
200–299 8,405 20.00% 0 — — —
300+ 6,494 12.38% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011 2026-10-04
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,306 2,306 2026-10-03
2 ENG · England 2,191 2,191 2026-10-03
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,136 2,209 2026-10-02
5 POR · Portugal 2,087 2,088 2026-10-04
6 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 BEL · Belgium 2,038 2,175 2026-10-02
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,029 2,032 2026-10-03
10 NED · Netherlands 2,023 2,177 2026-10-04
11 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
12 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,972 2,053 2026-10-04
15 GER · Germany 1,964 2,254 2026-10-04
16 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
17 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
18 ITA · Italy 1,937 2,095 2026-10-02
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,928 2,036 2026-10-03
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,916 1,956 2026-10-04
24 DEN · Denmark 1,908 2,018 2026-10-04
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,934 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
2401 FC Albisrieden ZH SUI 1,514 1,514 4 1974-06-16
2402 SC Hakoah Wien AUT 1,514 1,529 7 1946-03-09
2403 Smedby AIS SWE 1,514 1,527 9 2024-08-21
2404 K. FC De Sportvrienden Nijlen BEL 1,514 1,542 41 2018-08-19
2405 Fuentes ESP 1,514 1,521 2 2022-11-12
2406 Iraklis Larissa GRE 1,514 1,570 15 2021-08-29
2407 FC Helson Helchteren BEL 1,514 1,537 12 2018-08-05
2408 Malawi MWI 1,514 1,702 644 2026-06-09
2409 Ülküspor TUR 1,514 1,532 12 1965-11-21
2410 JOS Watergraafsmeer NED 1,514 1,517 2 2026-09-23
2411 Székely Land — 1,514 1,592 27 2023-07-02
2412 Iraklis Pyrgos GRE 1,514 1,514 4 1948-10-17
2413 Arb. SK Voitsberg AUT 1,514 1,514 1 2006-08-15
2414 SAPA/Savanna FIN 1,514 1,539 3 2023-03-31
2415 Linares Deportivo ESP 1,514 1,534 14 2023-12-07
2416 FC Mezzovicco SUI 1,514 1,537 8 1967-11-12
2417 Olimpia Sztum POL 1,514 1,514 1 2004-08-03
2418 South Carolina United Heat USA 1,514 1,514 2 2024-04-02
2419 Sparta Szamotuły POL 1,514 1,532 4 1986-09-24
2420 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar BEL 1,514 1,520 5 2024-10-30
2421 B 1903 DEN 1,514 1,563 40 1992-05-28
2422 Tirsense POR 1,514 1,577 77 2026-09-19
2423 Olympiacos Lamia GRE 1,514 1,526 6 1953-12-20
2424 Progresul Corabia ROU 1,514 1,514 2 1977-02-27
2425 SC Barvautois BEL 1,514 1,516 9 2001-08-05
2426 Alpendorada POR 1,514 1,514 5 2026-09-20
2427 Saint Louis FC USA 1,514 1,522 14 2019-07-10
2428 R.Ent.Rac.Club Amay BEL 1,514 1,516 2 2001-08-05
2429 SV Würenlos SUI 1,514 1,514 5 1999-09-04
2430 Tyrnavos GRE 1,513 1,521 22 2015-01-28
2431 Chula Vista FC USA 1,513 1,513 2 2017-05-17
2432 TamU-K FIN 1,513 1,540 5 2015-03-19
2433 Al Shabab KSA 1,513 1,589 94 2026-09-12
2434 Third Lanark ENG 1,513 1,524 3 1886-11-13
2435 AE Ierapoli GRE 1,513 1,513 2 1939-11-19
2436 Caledonian Braves SCO 1,513 1,513 16 2026-10-03
2437 PoFu United FIN 1,513 1,513 1 2026-03-07
2438 Mykolaiv UKR 1,513 1,527 19 2026-08-08
2439 Avântul Conpet Cireșu ROU 1,513 1,513 2 2014-07-30
2440 FC Waidhofen/Ybbs AUT 1,513 1,530 33 2010-09-17
2441 Enerhiia Mykolaiv UKR 1,513 1,531 3 2013-09-25
2442 Pirkkala JK FIN 1,513 1,525 2 2009-07-09
2443 Sporting Alken BEL 1,513 1,549 33 1983-08-21
2444 FC Revonvilier SUI 1,513 1,515 2 1956-10-07
2445 Shanghai Yuyuan CHN 1,513 1,529 10 1997-09-14
2446 Al Taawoun KSA 1,513 1,605 58 2026-09-12
2447 Vorskla Poltava UKR 1,513 1,704 415 2025-08-22
2448 Amical Club Neuvillers (p-Lux) BEL 1,513 1,513 1 1983-07-31
2449 Götzendorf AUT 1,513 1,520 3 2011-09-20
2450 Gilla FC/26 FIN 1,513 1,513 1 2026-03-08
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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