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// Elo ratings 545,459 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,459
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,881 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,223 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,892 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,090 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,753 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,847 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,175 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,416 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,485 13.96% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,578 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.85% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.60% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.97% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.99% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.38% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,087 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,103 26.85% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,286 24.60% 0 — — —
150–199 6,430 22.97% 0 — — —
200–299 8,403 19.99% 0 — — —
300+ 6,493 12.38% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,306 2,306 2026-10-03
2 ENG · England 2,191 2,191 2026-10-03
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,136 2,209 2026-10-02
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 BEL · Belgium 2,038 2,175 2026-10-02
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,029 2,032 2026-10-03
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
17 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
18 ITA · Italy 1,937 2,095 2026-10-02
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,928 2,036 2026-10-03
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,934 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
1901 AD Alcorcón ESP 1,522 1,698 586 2026-08-12
1902 Publikum Celje SVN 1,522 1,538 8 2005-08-19
1903 FC Élougeois BEL 1,522 1,542 19 1981-08-16
1904 KSK Voorwaarts Zwevezele BEL 1,522 1,522 5 2018-08-05
1905 Mando United FIN 1,522 1,522 1 2026-03-07
1906 Görelespor TUR 1,522 1,531 6 2019-10-29
1907 Akropolis IF SWE 1,522 1,539 23 2021-08-18
1908 Real Balompédica Linense ESP 1,522 1,546 9 2020-12-23
1909 Yerazank ARM 1,522 1,522 3 1994-04-02
1910 SC Columbia XXI AUT 1,522 1,532 4 1946-04-27
1911 SPG Innsbruck AUT 1,521 1,524 5 1981-08-14
1912 Sion U-21 SUI 1,521 1,544 8 2002-08-25
1913 PPJ/Lauttasaari FIN 1,521 1,534 5 2025-03-31
1914 Verspah Oita JPN 1,521 1,558 26 2025-05-25
1915 Limanovia Limanowa POL 1,521 1,535 9 2012-08-01
1916 FK TSC Bačka Topola SRB 1,521 1,536 14 2025-02-20
1917 FC Oerlikon ZH SUI 1,521 1,539 13 1976-06-13
1918 Chernihiv UKR 1,521 1,521 12 2026-08-23
1919 Iğdır TUR 1,521 1,521 9 2025-12-04
1920 FK Příbram CZE 1,521 1,530 4 2001-09-09
1921 Buñol ESP 1,521 1,523 4 2023-11-01
1922 FC Küsnacht ZH SUI 1,521 1,521 19 1979-08-04
1923 FC Spital FIN 1,521 1,536 6 2025-03-17
1924 Bergerac Périgord FC FRA 1,521 1,526 11 2024-01-19
1925 Emmenbrücke SUI 1,521 1,575 97 1996-08-10
1926 VaKP FIN 1,521 1,524 14 2026-02-25
1927 Carbo Gliwice POL 1,521 1,524 2 1987-08-05
1928 Yzeure FRA 1,521 1,541 7 2018-01-06
1929 ADO Den Haag NED 1,521 1,691 647 2026-09-19
1930 V-Varen Nagasaki JPN 1,521 1,548 87 2026-09-19
1931 Cork FC IRL 1,521 1,572 50 1938-02-05
1932 KSC Lokeren BEL 1,521 1,765 842 2026-08-01
1933 VG-62 FIN 1,521 1,549 17 2025-03-07
1934 Kayseri Havagücü TUR 1,521 1,532 9 1965-11-21
1935 Progresul Oradea ROU 1,521 1,592 42 1963-04-10
1936 SK Beveren Waes BEL 1,521 1,521 3 1976-12-26
1937 1. FC Slovácko CZE 1,521 1,521 6 2022-11-03
1938 Sarıkamış Gençlerbirliği Spor TUR 1,521 1,521 2 2018-09-12
1939 Øygarden FK NOR 1,521 1,521 34 2022-05-18
1940 Aarau U-21 SUI 1,521 1,538 3 2002-10-23
1941 Galata TUR 1,521 1,541 14 1992-11-04
1942 China U-20 CHN 1,521 1,531 3 2021-10-13
1943 AO Kavala GRE 1,521 1,647 390 2025-12-17
1944 Yedikule GSK TUR 1,521 1,530 10 1965-09-19
1945 SC Bastia FRA 1,521 1,741 1,046 2026-05-09
1946 RUW Ciney BEL 1,521 1,540 3 2011-08-14
1947 Al-Duhail QAT 1,521 1,521 3 2021-02-07
1948 Ranshofen AUT 1,521 1,521 1 1999-08-07
1949 FC Eagles FIN 1,521 1,521 1 2026-03-07
1950 FC Kulmakikka FIN 1,521 1,521 1 2026-02-21
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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