▦ FDB4
NOT BET ADVICE ONLINE Sign in
// Elo ratings 545,188 matches rated · 14,929 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,188
Teams rated14,929
Evenly matched draw 26.06% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.47% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,635 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 26.06% 26.1% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 24.92% 24.9% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.90% 75–99 — drew 23.63% 23.6% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.94% 100–149 — drew 24.49% 24.5% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.27% 150–199 — drew 23.18% 23.2% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.34% 200–299 — drew 20.07% 20.1% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.05% 300+ — drew 13.47% 13.5% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,202 26.06% 22,135 29.31% 28.79% -1.32%
25–49 72,424 24.92% 21,804 28.79% 28.66% -2.65%
50–74 78,900 23.11% 20,470 28.21% 28.34% -3.41%
75–99 64,625 23.63% 18,577 28.21% 27.90% -2.02%
100–149 86,857 24.49% 29,709 26.90% 26.94% -3.20%
150–199 53,219 23.18% 20,283 25.45% 25.27% -2.70%
200–299 49,713 20.07% 19,156 21.90% 22.34% -5.33%
300+ 22,695 13.47% 8,735 14.49% 16.05% -12.98%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,323 2,336 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,260 2,337 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,252 2,300 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,221 2,245 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,160 2,237 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,148 2,245 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,132 2,203 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,124 2,147 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,110 2,110 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,104 2,292 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,099 2,123 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,078 2,168 2026-09-19
13 ENG · Brentford 2,074 2,074 2026-09-18
14 NOR · Viking FK 2,073 2,098 2026-09-20
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,071 2,157 2026-09-20
16 POR · Sporting CP 2,069 2,143 2026-09-19
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,066 2,196 2026-09-20
18 ENG · Bournemouth 2,064 2,079 2026-09-20
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,053 2,136 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,036 2,040 2026-09-20
21 ENG · Chelsea 2,033 2,198 2026-09-18
22 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,031 2,043 2026-09-20
23 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,031 2,057 2026-09-25
24 ITA · AS Roma 2,028 2,072 2026-09-19
25 POR · SL Benfica 2,027 2,073 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,020 2,138 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,017 2,089 2026-09-20
28 ENG · Everton 2,013 2,015 2026-09-19
29 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,011 2,013 2026-09-27
30 ITA · Juventus 2,010 2,204 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,593 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
101 Spartak Moscow RUS 1,855 1,896 690 2026-08-02
102 Paris FC FRA 1,855 1,855 394 2026-09-19
103 Sevilla ESP 1,854 2,065 1,683 2026-09-19
104 Sandefjord Fotball NOR 1,853 1,867 1,324 2026-09-20
105 Sarpsborg 08 NOR 1,852 1,950 657 2026-09-18
106 Valencia CF ESP 1,852 2,007 1,742 2026-09-20
107 Bologna ITA 1,852 2,014 1,271 2026-09-19
108 SV Elversberg GER 1,850 1,861 277 2026-09-24
109 AGF DEN 1,850 1,934 586 2026-09-20
110 ACF Fiorentina ITA 1,847 1,974 1,485 2026-09-20
111 Werder Bremen GER 1,846 1,962 1,388 2026-09-19
112 BSC Young Boys SUI 1,845 2,032 1,062 2026-09-19
113 Inter Turku FIN 1,844 1,861 549 2026-09-18
114 M'gladbach GER 1,843 2,011 1,384 2026-09-24
115 Ajax NED 1,842 2,143 1,731 2026-09-19
116 KuPS Kuopio FIN 1,842 1,920 579 2026-09-19
117 Palmeiras BRA 1,839 1,869 612 2026-09-20
118 Trabzonspor TUR 1,839 1,902 1,490 2026-09-19
119 SK Sturm Graz AUT 1,836 1,966 879 2026-09-20
120 GAIS SWE 1,835 1,861 228 2026-09-20
121 Vålerenga Fotball NOR 1,834 1,958 2,050 2026-09-20
122 Getafe CF ESP 1,830 1,951 1,138 2026-09-20
123 Hibernian SCO 1,829 1,881 1,465 2026-09-19
124 Lech Poznań POL 1,827 1,885 774 2026-09-20
125 CA Osasuna ESP 1,821 1,907 1,327 2026-09-19
126 KFUM Oslo NOR 1,821 1,894 331 2026-09-18
127 Hamburger SV GER 1,818 1,905 1,408 2026-09-19
128 Mjällby AIF SWE 1,818 1,995 373 2026-09-20
129 Besiktas TUR 1,816 1,961 1,628 2026-09-20
130 RCD Mallorca ESP 1,816 1,880 1,254 2026-09-27
131 Udinese Calcio ITA 1,816 1,912 1,315 2026-09-26
132 Lincoln City ENG 1,815 1,841 1,910 2026-09-19
133 VfL Wolfsburg GER 1,814 2,024 1,288 2026-09-18
134 Chengdu Rongcheng CHN 1,814 1,887 174 2026-09-06
135 Middlesbrough ENG 1,814 1,879 1,998 2026-09-19
136 Levante UD ESP 1,814 1,894 1,248 2026-09-20
137 Dynamo Moscow RUS 1,813 1,868 501 2026-08-01
138 Kongsvinger IL NOR 1,811 1,811 1,265 2026-09-20
139 Hamarkameratene NOR 1,811 1,855 1,415 2026-09-20
140 Lorient FRA 1,810 1,859 1,178 2026-09-19
141 Toulouse FRA 1,810 1,869 1,215 2026-09-19
142 Viborg FF DEN 1,810 1,817 336 2026-09-20
143 Dynamo Kyiv UKR 1,809 1,926 894 2026-09-28
144 SC Paderborn 07 GER 1,808 1,815 783 2026-09-20
145 Elche CF ESP 1,807 1,815 1,173 2026-09-18
146 Hertha BSC GER 1,807 1,884 1,311 2026-09-29
147 FC Noah ARM 1,806 1,806 295 2026-05-27
148 CSKA Moscow RUS 1,805 1,917 601 2026-09-27
149 Beijing Guoan CHN 1,803 1,839 483 2026-09-05
150 Dinamo București ROU 1,803 1,803 972 2026-09-20
page 3 / 292 ‹ prev next ›
Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

We use a session cookie to run the site and, if you allow it, Google Analytics to see which pages are used. No ads, no tracking across sites. Cookie policy