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// Elo ratings 545,496 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,496
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,909 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.71% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,226 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,898 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,096 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,754 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,849 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,178 23.71% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,421 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,487 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,587 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.87% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.97% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 20.00% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.38% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,087 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,106 26.87% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,288 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,431 22.97% 0 — — —
200–299 8,405 20.00% 0 — — —
300+ 6,494 12.38% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011 2026-10-04
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,306 2,306 2026-10-03
2 ENG · England 2,191 2,191 2026-10-03
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,136 2,209 2026-10-02
5 POR · Portugal 2,087 2,088 2026-10-04
6 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 BEL · Belgium 2,038 2,175 2026-10-02
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,029 2,032 2026-10-03
10 NED · Netherlands 2,023 2,177 2026-10-04
11 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
12 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,972 2,053 2026-10-04
15 GER · Germany 1,964 2,254 2026-10-04
16 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
17 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
18 ITA · Italy 1,937 2,095 2026-10-02
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,928 2,036 2026-10-03
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,916 1,956 2026-10-04
24 DEN · Denmark 1,908 2,018 2026-10-04
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,934 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
5251 Grindavík ISL 1,494 1,500 2 2003-07-29
5252 Unia Solec Kujawski POL 1,494 1,508 2 2014-07-26
5253 1599 Șelimbăr ROU 1,494 1,523 6 2025-08-13
5254 Prahova Ploiești ROU 1,494 1,525 15 1963-05-15
5255 Monthey SUI 1,494 1,648 170 2024-09-13
5256 Sokół Równe POL 1,494 1,512 2 1926-06-29
5257 Stal Rzeszów POL 1,494 1,574 59 2026-10-02
5258 Sporting Espoir Jemeppe BEL 1,494 1,512 2 2007-08-05
5259 Minerul Anina ROU 1,494 1,519 4 2014-07-30
5260 SK Torhout BEL 1,494 1,508 3 2013-07-28
5261 Sepahan IRN 1,494 1,515 2 2007-12-10
5262 Angouleme FRA 1,494 1,503 6 2020-01-18
5263 Eintracht Nordhorn GER 1,494 1,500 1 2008-08-09
5264 Rhexia Campagnes Meinier SUI 1,494 1,512 2 1946-10-20
5265 Çayırova Spor TUR 1,494 1,502 2 2018-09-13
5266 Torslanda IK SWE 1,494 1,535 24 2025-07-01
5267 Club Villa Mitre ARG 1,494 1,518 15 2025-04-01
5268 FC Dornbirn AUT 1,494 1,530 76 2026-07-24
5269 UVB Vöcklamarkt AUT 1,494 1,500 1 2019-07-20
5270 Avântul Bârsana ROU 1,494 1,500 1 2013-09-26
5271 IFK Uppsala SWE 1,494 1,500 2 2023-06-30
5272 Baileux Sport BEL 1,494 1,533 9 2012-07-29
5273 Zonhoven V&V BEL 1,494 1,570 50 2016-07-31
5274 Brisbane Olympic AUS 1,494 1,500 1 2026-09-04
5275 IF Fløya NOR 1,494 1,510 27 2026-09-16
5276 Wiener Rasensportfreunde AUT 1,494 1,508 2 1929-03-17
5277 Tricolor Baia Mare ROU 1,494 1,508 2 1935-04-07
5278 Puleward City FIN 1,494 1,518 8 2026-02-28
5279 Águia de Marabá BRA 1,494 1,506 14 2026-03-19
5280 Ekedalens SK SWE 1,494 1,511 2 2020-10-18
5281 Kramatorsk UKR 1,494 1,502 3 2021-08-18
5282 PS-44 FIN 1,494 1,515 4 2006-06-11
5283 Raklev GI DEN 1,494 1,512 2 2025-09-03
5284 Erzurum Karagücü TUR 1,494 1,508 3 1963-10-13
5285 Ioannina GRE 1,494 1,508 3 1966-01-06
5286 Jalkarannan Palloseura/M35 FIN 1,494 1,518 2 2022-04-08
5287 Mellet Sports BEL 1,494 1,508 2 2006-08-06
5288 Basford Rovers ENG 1,494 1,500 2 1887-10-15
5289 Jingchuan Wenhui CHN 1,494 1,506 2 2022-12-18
5290 68 Yeni Aksarayspor TUR 1,494 1,501 5 2014-10-29
5291 New York Pancyprian Freedoms USA 1,494 1,502 2 2025-04-02
5292 Ringsted DEN 1,494 1,508 13 2025-09-23
5293 Manauara Esporte Clube BRA 1,494 1,502 3 2026-03-11
5294 Høllen FK NOR 1,494 1,500 1 2014-04-24
5295 Ştiinţa Petroşani ROU 1,494 1,509 5 1974-11-27
5296 K. Lyra BEL 1,494 1,573 30 2003-08-16
5297 TuPS/Skavaböle FIN 1,494 1,510 3 2025-03-11
5298 MZKS Alwernia POL 1,494 1,512 2 1998-09-23
5299 UD Lanzarote ESP 1,494 1,500 1 2024-10-29
5300 Cetatea Suceava ROU 1,494 1,509 3 2026-08-12
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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