What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 125 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Slovakia drew 29 where the draw model expected 28.3 from those particular fixtures — about 1 more, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 29.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 26 Mar 2008 → 06 Jun 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 05 Mar 2014 → 05 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 23 Mar 2025 → 01 Jun 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 29 May 2001 → 27 Mar 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 19 May 1999 → 09 Feb 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 26 Mar 2023 → 23 Mar 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 26 Mar 2017 → 25 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 14 Nov 2021 → 22 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 16 Nov 2018 → 09 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 15 Aug 2006 → 10 Dec 2006 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 147 | 44 | 29.9% | 0 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 81 | 19 | 23.5% | 7 | 10 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 80 | 13 | 16.3% | 9 | 9 |
| UEFA Nations League | 27 | 5 | 18.5% | 0 | 5 |
| UEFA European Championship | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 1 | 3 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 2 | 2 |
| Kirin Cup | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 | 2 |
| FIFA World Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 3 |
| United Arab Emirates Friendship Tournament | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Merdeka Tournament | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| King's Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2024 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 4 |
| 2023 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2022 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 2021 | 15 | 7 | 46.7% | 3 |
| 2020 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2019 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2018 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2017 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2016 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 5 |
| 2015 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 2014 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 2013 | 11 | 6 | 54.6% | 3 |
| 2012 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 2011 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2010 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 3 |
| 2009 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2008 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2007 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 5 |
| 2006 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2005 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2004 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 4 |
| 2003 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2002 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2001 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 10 |
| 2000 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 2 |
| 1999 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 10 |
| 1998 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 1997 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1996 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1995 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 6 |
| 1994 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 1993 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1992 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1944 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1943 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1942 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1941 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1940 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | Moldova | vs | Slovakia | – / – / – | 20.8% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.