What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 114 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Greece drew 27 where the draw model expected 25.1 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 26.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 07 Jun 2024 → 15 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 26 Apr 1995 → 09 Oct 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 28 Feb 2006 → 22 Aug 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 23 Mar 2018 → 23 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 05 Jun 1994 → 08 Feb 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 22 Mar 1978 → 13 Dec 1978 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 24 Mar 2016 → 09 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 05 Jun 1999 → 17 Nov 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 25 Mar 2022 → 27 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 22 Mar 2013 → 15 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 272 | 80 | 29.4% | 1 | 7 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 142 | 34 | 23.9% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 130 | 27 | 20.8% | 0 | 10 |
| UEFA Nations League | 29 | 4 | 13.8% | 0 | 8 |
| Balkan Cup | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA European Championship | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 3 | 4 |
| FIFA World Cup | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Inter-Allied Games | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Matthews Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 2 |
| Confederations Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 2 |
| Olympic Games | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2024 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2023 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2022 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2021 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 4 |
| 2020 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2019 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 2018 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 2017 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 2016 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2015 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 2014 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 3 |
| 2013 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2012 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 2011 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 2 |
| 2010 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2009 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 8 |
| 2007 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 6 |
| 2006 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2005 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 5 |
| 2004 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2003 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 2002 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 2001 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2000 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1999 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 9 |
| 1998 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1997 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 1996 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1995 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 1994 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 8 |
| 1993 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1992 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1991 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1990 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1989 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 6 |
| 1988 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1986 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1985 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1984 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1983 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1982 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 1981 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1980 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1979 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 10 |
| 1977 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 1976 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1974 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1973 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1971 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1970 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 7 | 5 | 71.4% | 1 |
| 1968 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1966 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1961 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1954 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1953 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1949 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1936 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1935 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1933 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1931 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1920 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1919 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 18:45 | Greece | vs | Germany | – / – / – | 27.9% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.