▦ FDB4
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Match official

Grant Hegley

2001–2011 · 3 competitions
Also recorded as: G Hegley, G. K. Hegley, Hegley, G. K.
Matches 268
Draws 56
Draw % 20.9% -3.4 pts vs 24.3%
Comps 3
Luck or skill how this is worked out ›

Over 268 matches (Aug 2001 – Mar 2011), Grant Hegley drew 56 where the draw model expected 75.0 from those particular fixtures — about 19 fewer, or 2.6 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.

As unusual as a coin landing the same way 7 times running. A flat league average would have expected 73.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

By competition 3 competitions
Competition Matches Draws Draw %
ENG · League One 101 13 12.9%
ENG · League Two 90 21 23.3%
ENG · Championship 77 22 28.6%
By season 10 seasons
Season Matches Draws Draw %
2010/11 24 5 20.8%
2009/10 30 3 10.0%
2008/09 32 5 15.6%
2007/08 23 4 17.4%
2006/07 21 10 47.6%
2005/06 27 5 18.5%
2004/05 30 8 26.7%
2003/04 28 5 17.9%
2002/03 29 5 17.2%
2001/02 24 6 25.0%
Latest matches last 50

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