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// Elo ratings 545,213 matches rated · 14,929 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,213
Teams rated14,929
Evenly matched draw 26.06% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.48% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,660 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 26.06% 26.1% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 24.92% 24.9% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.90% 75–99 — drew 23.64% 23.6% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.94% 100–149 — drew 24.49% 24.5% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.27% 150–199 — drew 23.17% 23.2% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.34% 200–299 — drew 20.07% 20.1% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.05% 300+ — drew 13.48% 13.5% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,205 26.06% 22,135 29.31% 28.79% -1.32%
25–49 72,426 24.92% 21,804 28.79% 28.66% -2.65%
50–74 78,902 23.11% 20,470 28.21% 28.34% -3.41%
75–99 64,628 23.64% 18,577 28.21% 27.90% -2.02%
100–149 86,863 24.49% 29,709 26.90% 26.94% -3.20%
150–199 53,224 23.17% 20,283 25.45% 25.27% -2.70%
200–299 49,715 20.07% 19,156 21.90% 22.34% -5.33%
300+ 22,697 13.48% 8,735 14.49% 16.05% -12.98%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,323 2,336 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,260 2,337 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,252 2,300 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,221 2,245 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,160 2,237 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,148 2,245 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,132 2,203 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,124 2,147 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,110 2,110 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,104 2,292 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,099 2,123 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,078 2,168 2026-09-19
13 ENG · Brentford 2,074 2,074 2026-09-18
14 NOR · Viking FK 2,073 2,098 2026-09-20
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,071 2,157 2026-09-20
16 POR · Sporting CP 2,069 2,143 2026-09-19
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,066 2,196 2026-09-20
18 ENG · Bournemouth 2,064 2,079 2026-09-20
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,053 2,136 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,036 2,040 2026-09-20
21 ENG · Chelsea 2,033 2,198 2026-09-18
22 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,031 2,043 2026-09-20
23 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,031 2,057 2026-09-25
24 ITA · AS Roma 2,028 2,072 2026-09-19
25 POR · SL Benfica 2,027 2,073 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,020 2,138 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,017 2,089 2026-09-20
28 ENG · Everton 2,013 2,015 2026-09-19
29 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,011 2,013 2026-09-27
30 ITA · Juventus 2,010 2,204 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,593 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
401 Konyaspor TUR 1,655 1,812 841 2026-09-18
402 Yokohama F. Marinos JPN 1,655 1,835 572 2026-09-19
403 FC Tokyo JPN 1,654 1,744 556 2026-09-19
404 Independiente Rivadavia ARG 1,654 1,663 125 2026-09-21
405 Huddersfield Town ENG 1,654 1,787 1,980 2026-09-19
406 St. Louis City SC USA 1,653 1,653 139 2026-09-20
407 Guadalajara Chivas MEX 1,652 1,675 529 2026-09-27
408 Lyn Fotball NOR 1,652 1,889 1,355 2026-09-20
409 Corinthians BRA 1,652 1,768 659 2026-09-20
410 Grazer AK AUT 1,651 1,733 315 2026-09-19
411 SCR Altach AUT 1,649 1,755 510 2026-09-19
412 FK Partizan Belgrade SRB 1,649 1,719 270 2026-09-27
413 Daring Club de Bruxelles BEL 1,649 1,660 57 1970-12-27
414 NK Celje SVN 1,649 1,689 38 2026-09-16
415 Volgar Astrakhan RUS 1,648 1,679 2 2016-05-27
416 River Plate ARG 1,648 1,804 570 2026-09-19
417 Cambridge United ENG 1,648 1,653 1,773 2026-09-26
418 Galway United IRL 1,648 1,711 307 2026-09-25
419 São Paulo BRA 1,647 1,775 638 2026-09-20
420 Ranheim TF NOR 1,647 1,818 764 2026-09-20
421 Fortuna Sittard NED 1,647 1,670 561 2026-09-19
422 MSV Duisburg GER 1,646 1,713 1,147 2026-09-20
423 Blau-Weiß Linz AUT 1,646 1,700 156 2026-07-24
424 Drogheda United IRL 1,646 1,723 550 2026-09-18
425 Greuther Fürth GER 1,645 1,797 1,042 2026-09-18
426 Kawasaki Frontale JPN 1,645 1,939 570 2026-09-19
427 Petrolul Ploiești ROU 1,644 1,786 550 2026-09-21
428 Vejle BK DEN 1,644 1,708 286 2026-07-03
429 Metz FRA 1,643 1,791 1,247 2026-09-19
430 Orenburg RUS 1,643 1,766 221 2026-08-02
431 Mansfield Town ENG 1,643 1,693 1,886 2026-09-19
432 Lahti FIN 1,642 1,732 516 2026-09-18
433 FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv UKR 1,641 1,666 130 2026-07-22
434 Widzew Łódź POL 1,641 1,664 380 2026-09-18
435 Farul Constanța ROU 1,640 1,817 340 2026-09-20
436 Oțelul Galați ROU 1,640 1,708 343 2026-09-21
437 Wisła Kraków POL 1,639 1,790 612 2026-09-26
438 Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih UKR 1,639 1,700 212 2026-09-18
439 Zvartnots-AAL ARM 1,638 1,723 123 2002-11-15
440 Viitorul Constanța ROU 1,637 1,796 364 2021-05-30
441 Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk UKR 1,637 1,832 287 2017-07-09
442 Stevenage ENG 1,637 1,684 1,064 2026-09-19
443 Sporting de Gijón ESP 1,637 1,752 1,423 2026-09-27
444 Sparta Rotterdam NED 1,636 1,785 865 2026-09-19
445 Grêmio BRA 1,636 1,767 605 2026-09-20
446 Lyngby BK DEN 1,636 1,722 329 2026-09-18
447 Belgrano de Córdoba ARG 1,635 1,660 403 2026-09-20
448 Celta Fortuna ESP 1,635 1,667 7 2026-09-26
449 Atromitos Athens GRE 1,634 1,796 852 2026-09-19
450 Gaziantep FK TUR 1,634 1,748 358 2026-09-19
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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