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// Elo ratings 545,492 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,492
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,906 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,226 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,897 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,096 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,754 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,849 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,176 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,421 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,487 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,586 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.87% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.97% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 20.00% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.38% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,087 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,106 26.87% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,287 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,431 22.97% 0 — — —
200–299 8,405 20.00% 0 — — —
300+ 6,494 12.38% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011 2026-10-04
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,306 2,306 2026-10-03
2 ENG · England 2,191 2,191 2026-10-03
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,136 2,209 2026-10-02
5 POR · Portugal 2,087 2,088 2026-10-04
6 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 BEL · Belgium 2,038 2,175 2026-10-02
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,029 2,032 2026-10-03
10 NED · Netherlands 2,023 2,177 2026-10-04
11 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
12 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,972 2,053 2026-10-04
15 GER · Germany 1,964 2,254 2026-10-04
16 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
17 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
18 ITA · Italy 1,937 2,095 2026-10-02
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,928 2,036 2026-10-03
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,916 1,956 2026-10-04
24 DEN · Denmark 1,908 2,018 2026-10-04
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,598 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
3301 Cristo Atletico ESP 1,503 1,512 5 2026-08-22
3302 Zelmer Rzeszów POL 1,503 1,520 4 1990-08-01
3303 Niki Ampelokipoi GRE 1,503 1,560 9 1949-10-06
3304 Daphni Athens GRE 1,503 1,517 8 1949-11-13
3305 R. Alliance Claviéroise SC BEL 1,503 1,506 3 1971-08-15
3306 Dalian Boyoung CHN 1,503 1,524 10 2019-03-30
3307 Bordeaux Stade FRA 1,503 1,517 6 2015-12-05
3308 Saburtalo Tbilisi GEO 1,503 1,519 2 2019-10-04
3309 FC Industrie ZH SUI 1,503 1,512 2 1967-09-16
3310 FK Lofoten NOR 1,503 1,538 52 2008-05-10
3311 Marko Walichnowy POL 1,503 1,522 2 1997-08-12
3312 ROHDA Raalte NED 1,503 1,503 3 2026-09-23
3313 Pelops Kiatou GRE 1,503 1,531 6 1980-10-29
3314 Tire 2021 Futbol Kulübü TUR 1,503 1,533 4 2025-09-16
3315 Vesoul FRA 1,503 1,508 4 2010-02-09
3316 Granitul Babadag ROU 1,503 1,515 4 2014-08-13
3317 Voința Crevedia ROU 1,503 1,518 2 2026-08-05
3318 Bursa Yıldırımspor TUR 1,503 1,510 11 2025-10-29
3319 Marathon Kiouri GRE 1,503 1,526 4 1947-01-02
3320 FC Walem BEL 1,503 1,503 3 2017-08-05
3321 JEF United Chiba JPN 1,503 1,583 58 2025-06-11
3322 Troll NOR 1,503 1,540 7 1963-07-01
3323 Sant Andreu ESP 1,503 1,506 13 2026-08-08
3324 Apollon Paralimnio GRE 1,503 1,536 18 2024-08-31
3325 Locarno SUI 1,503 1,629 241 2017-09-16
3326 FK Vidar NOR 1,503 1,580 174 2026-08-22
3327 Badalona ESP 1,503 1,535 12 2026-08-29
3328 SK Amateure Steyr AUT 1,503 1,513 2 1978-09-12
3329 Young Fellows SUI 1,503 1,670 170 1991-08-31
3330 Diocesano ESP 1,503 1,511 2 2022-12-20
3331 SC Zichen-Zussen-Bolder BEL 1,503 1,527 9 2010-08-01
3332 Metalurgs Liepāja LVA 1,503 1,536 50 2013-07-29
3333 Clube Atlético Tubarão BRA 1,503 1,512 3 2019-02-14
3334 Madureira Esporte Clube BRA 1,503 1,515 7 2026-03-12
3335 Theseus Agria GRE 1,503 1,522 5 2023-09-03
3336 Küçükçekmece Sinopspor TUR 1,503 1,515 6 2025-09-17
3337 Calcio Padova ITA 1,503 1,673 658 2026-09-19
3338 Dison Sports BEL 1,503 1,521 2 1926-08-29
3339 FC Étoile-Laconnex SUI 1,503 1,523 4 2002-08-24
3340 Azul Claro Numazu JPN 1,503 1,520 5 2024-05-25
3341 Victoria CF ESP 1,503 1,508 2 2021-11-30
3342 Chilton Colliery Recreation Athletic ENG 1,503 1,526 6 1926-12-11
3343 RKS Radomsko POL 1,503 1,567 39 2022-08-30
3344 Yokohama F.Marinos JPN 1,503 1,503 1 2024-10-27
3345 FCV Dender EH BEL 1,503 1,588 186 2026-08-08
3346 FC KAGOSHIMA JPN 1,503 1,516 2 2011-10-08
3347 Arras FRA 1,503 1,505 3 2013-01-06
3348 Blue Star Wien AUT 1,503 1,524 2 1920-03-14
3349 Manglerud Star Toppfotball NOR 1,503 1,547 67 2010-05-12
3350 MynPa FIN 1,503 1,511 3 2016-02-19
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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