▦ FDB4
// Elo ratings 545,804 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,804
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 496,123 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.21% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.26% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,264 27.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,934 26.31% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,120 25.02% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,781 25.21% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,879 25.26% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,203 23.72% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,443 20.56% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,499 13.96% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,681 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.50% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.37% 25.4% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.90% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.86% 25.9% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.58% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.92% 19.9% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,179 27.50% — —
25–49 5,077 25.37% — —
50–74 5,115 26.90% — —
75–99 4,618 25.86% — —
100–149 8,299 24.58% — —
150–199 6,447 23.11% — —
200–299 8,423 19.92% — —
300+ 6,523 12.37% — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 FC Bayern München 2,307 2,328
2 Manchester City 2,267 2,331
3 Arsenal 2,248 2,293
4 Barcelona 2,212 2,243
5 Paris Saint-Germain 2,155 2,231
6 Real Madrid 2,143 2,237
7 Inter Milan 2,130 2,202
8 FK Bodø/Glimt 2,124 2,143
9 Brighton & Hove Albion 2,113 2,113
10 Liverpool 2,085 2,285
11 Borussia Dortmund 2,084 2,116
12 Viking FK 2,083 2,097
13 Aston Villa 2,075 2,162
14 Brentford 2,070 2,070
15 Sporting CP 2,064 2,145
16 Bayer Leverkusen 2,063 2,190
17 Manchester United 2,060 2,147
18 Atlético Madrid 2,049 2,134
19 Bournemouth 2,041 2,073
20 Chelsea 2,039 2,185
21 VfB Stuttgart 2,027 2,050
22 Leeds United 2,026 2,033
23 SL Benfica 2,026 2,071
24 AS Roma 2,025 2,070
25 Porto 2,016 2,086
26 Newcastle United 2,014 2,141
27 Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011
28 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,009 2,037
29 Everton 2,002 2,009
30 Juventus 1,996 2,200
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 Spain 2,312 2,312
2 England 2,195 2,195
3 Argentina 2,190 2,200
4 France 2,157 2,210
5 Portugal 2,087 2,088
6 Morocco 2,075 2,106
7 Brazil 2,039 2,212
8 Colombia 2,033 2,115
9 Switzerland 2,033 2,033
10 Japan 2,026 2,064
11 Netherlands 2,023 2,177
12 Belgium 2,018 2,175
13 Norway 1,973 2,053
14 Germany 1,965 2,254
15 Mexico 1,965 2,054
16 Italy 1,957 2,095
17 Nigeria 1,949 1,962
18 Australia 1,936 2,002
19 Senegal 1,924 1,991
20 Croatia 1,923 2,036
21 United States 1,923 2,011
22 Ecuador 1,919 1,980
23 Austria 1,917 1,957
24 Algeria 1,911 1,961
25 Uruguay 1,909 2,056
26 Denmark 1,909 2,018
27 Paraguay 1,905 1,905
28 South Korea 1,901 1,986
29 Iran 1,900 2,017
30 Canada 1,878 2,010
All rated teams 14,598 teams
Clear
▸ Reset
# Team Rating Peak
12651 FC Grandson-Tuileries 1,465 1,500
12652 FC Lalden 1,465 1,508
12653 Penrith 1,465 1,509
12654 FC Rita Berlaar 1,465 1,507
12655 FC Chailly/Lausanne 1,465 1,508
12656 Aberystwyth Town 1,465 1,500
12657 Koropi 1,465 1,520
12658 ROC Meix-devant-Virton 1,465 1,502
12659 Sacachispas Fútbol Club 1,465 1,504
12660 Orzeł Wierzbica 1,465 1,500
12661 BK Rødovre 1,465 1,520
12662 Crofton Celtic Cork 1,465 1,500
12663 FC Vencimontois 1,465 1,500
12664 AMEF Arad 1,465 1,538
12665 FC Allschwil 1,465 1,548
12666 LuPo 1,465 1,500
12667 Nexø BK 1,465 1,500
12668 FC Rijnvogels 1,465 1,500
12669 FC Raahe 1,465 1,500
12670 FC Root 1,465 1,500
12671 ATUS Ferlach 1,465 1,500
12672 Ballincollig 1,465 1,500
12673 Football Bourg-en-Bresse Péronnas 1,465 1,583
12674 FC Cornaux 1,465 1,500
12675 SK Schärding 1,465 1,500
12676 K. FC Kuurne 1,465 1,500
12677 University of Toyama 1,465 1,500
12678 Jyllinge FC 1,465 1,514
12679 Brekstad 1,465 1,500
12680 Rosseland BK 1,465 1,500
12681 Ganzhou Ruishi 1,465 1,512
12682 FCV/Reds II 1,465 1,508
12683 Progresul Fundulea 1,465 1,500
12684 Post Zürich 1,465 1,500
12685 Palmas Futebol e Regatas 1,465 1,500
12686 AS Ghlinoise 1,465 1,500
12687 KE Appelterre-Eichem 1,465 1,526
12688 Gresvik IF 1,465 1,500
12689 FC Zollikofen 1,465 1,500
12690 Frøyland IL 1,465 1,500
12691 MyPa A 1,465 1,500
12692 Åsebro IF 1,465 1,523
12693 Attercliffe 1,465 1,500
12694 Tours 1,465 1,620
12695 Çubukspor 1,465 1,502
12696 Rockmount 1,465 1,502
12697 ROMAR Mažeikiai 1,465 1,500
12698 FC Floria Olympic (La Chaux-de-Fonds) 1,465 1,500
12699 Moto Club de São Luís 1,465 1,500
12700 FC Küssnacht 1,465 1,500
page 254 / 292 ‹ prev next ›
Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

We use a session cookie to run the site and, if you allow it, Google Analytics to see which pages are used. No ads, no tracking across sites. Cookie policy