▦ FDB4
// Elo ratings 545,730 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,730
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 496,049 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.26% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,250 27.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,921 26.31% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,115 25.02% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,773 25.22% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,872 25.26% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,192 23.72% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,434 20.56% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,492 13.96% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,681 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.50% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.37% 25.4% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.90% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.86% 25.9% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.58% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.92% 19.9% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,179 27.50% — —
25–49 5,077 25.37% — —
50–74 5,115 26.90% — —
75–99 4,618 25.86% — —
100–149 8,299 24.58% — —
150–199 6,447 23.11% — —
200–299 8,423 19.92% — —
300+ 6,523 12.37% — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 FC Bayern München 2,307 2,328
2 Manchester City 2,253 2,331
3 Arsenal 2,248 2,293
4 Barcelona 2,209 2,243
5 Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231
6 Real Madrid 2,139 2,237
7 Inter Milan 2,127 2,202
8 FK Bodø/Glimt 2,124 2,143
9 Brighton & Hove Albion 2,113 2,113
10 Liverpool 2,098 2,285
11 Borussia Dortmund 2,084 2,116
12 Viking FK 2,083 2,097
13 Aston Villa 2,075 2,162
14 Brentford 2,070 2,070
15 Manchester United 2,065 2,147
16 Sporting CP 2,064 2,145
17 Bayer Leverkusen 2,063 2,190
18 Atlético Madrid 2,049 2,134
19 Bournemouth 2,041 2,073
20 Chelsea 2,039 2,185
21 VfB Stuttgart 2,027 2,050
22 Leeds United 2,026 2,033
23 SL Benfica 2,026 2,071
24 AS Roma 2,024 2,070
25 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037
26 Porto 2,014 2,086
27 Newcastle United 2,014 2,141
28 Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011
29 Everton 2,007 2,009
30 Juventus 1,996 2,200
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 Spain 2,312 2,312
2 England 2,195 2,195
3 Argentina 2,190 2,200
4 France 2,157 2,210
5 Portugal 2,087 2,088
6 Morocco 2,075 2,106
7 Brazil 2,039 2,212
8 Colombia 2,033 2,115
9 Switzerland 2,033 2,033
10 Japan 2,026 2,064
11 Netherlands 2,023 2,177
12 Belgium 2,018 2,175
13 Norway 1,973 2,053
14 Germany 1,965 2,254
15 Mexico 1,965 2,054
16 Italy 1,957 2,095
17 Nigeria 1,949 1,962
18 Australia 1,936 2,002
19 Senegal 1,924 1,991
20 Croatia 1,923 2,036
21 United States 1,923 2,011
22 Ecuador 1,919 1,980
23 Austria 1,917 1,957
24 Algeria 1,911 1,961
25 Uruguay 1,909 2,056
26 Denmark 1,909 2,018
27 Paraguay 1,905 1,905
28 South Korea 1,901 1,986
29 Iran 1,900 2,017
30 Canada 1,878 2,010
All rated teams 14,598 teams
Clear
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# Team Rating Peak
11251 Pallohait Laukaa 1,474 1,500
11252 Błękitni Kielce 1,474 1,561
11253 Bødalen 1,474 1,500
11254 Real Noroeste Capixaba Futebol Clube 1,474 1,500
11255 Castellarano 1,474 1,500
11256 Arsinspor 1,474 1,516
11257 Toronto FC 1,474 1,696
11258 Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense 1,474 1,527
11259 HC Laatupallo 1,474 1,502
11260 Lausanne Uni-Club 1,474 1,500
11261 SK Spring (Kragerø) 1,474 1,518
11262 KFC Langemark 1,474 1,505
11263 Feronikeli 1,474 1,500
11264 Cornesse FC 1,474 1,500
11265 Sakai Phoenix 1,474 1,500
11266 Stomil II Olsztyn 1,474 1,500
11267 Minerul Turţ 1,474 1,500
11268 União da Madeira 1,474 1,542
11269 Bennekom 1,474 1,522
11270 Aiolikos 1,474 1,525
11271 Phoenix Buziaș 1,474 1,507
11272 Tufagorts 1,474 1,500
11273 Wigan Borough 1,474 1,519
11274 Atherstone United 1,474 1,501
11275 Craiu Iovan Craiova 1,474 1,500
11276 Tyne Association 1,474 1,500
11277 Taastrup FC 1,474 1,500
11278 Sport Team București 1,474 1,500
11279 Ramsgate 1,474 1,500
11280 Hokuriku University 1,474 1,502
11281 Otterup B&IK 1,474 1,512
11282 1. FC Wülfrath 1,474 1,500
11283 Pannafpliakos 1,474 1,525
11284 FC Kessel-Lo 1,474 1,500
11285 CYM Terenure 1,474 1,506
11286 US Bottechia 1,474 1,500
11287 Atlético Madrid B 1,474 1,598
11288 Pomezania Malbork 1,474 1,500
11289 Teleajenul Vălenii de Munte 1,474 1,500
11290 Khust 1,474 1,500
11291 Blaker IL 1,474 1,500
11292 RFCS Marcinelle 1,474 1,500
11293 ToU 1,474 1,500
11294 Polonia Głubczyce 1,474 1,500
11295 Midia Năvodari 1,474 1,500
11296 US Verscio 1,474 1,500
11297 Bognor Regis Town 1,474 1,504
11298 Victoria Chirnogi 1,474 1,500
11299 Skagen IK 1,474 1,512
11300 Rouvas 1,474 1,500
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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