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// Elo ratings 545,607 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,607
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,926 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.71% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,228 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,901 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,097 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,757 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,853 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,179 23.71% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,424 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,487 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,681 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.50% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.37% 25.4% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.90% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.86% 25.9% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.58% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.92% 19.9% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,179 27.50% 0 — — —
25–49 5,077 25.37% 0 — — —
50–74 5,115 26.90% 0 — — —
75–99 4,618 25.86% 0 — — —
100–149 8,299 24.58% 0 — — —
150–199 6,447 23.11% 0 — — —
200–299 8,423 19.92% 0 — — —
300+ 6,523 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011 2026-10-04
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,312 2,312 2026-10-06
2 ENG · England 2,195 2,195 2026-10-06
3 ARG · Argentina 2,190 2,200 2026-10-06
4 FRA · France 2,157 2,210 2026-10-05
5 POR · Portugal 2,087 2,088 2026-10-04
6 MAR · Morocco 2,075 2,106 2026-10-04
7 BRA · Brazil 2,039 2,212 2026-10-03
8 COL · Colombia 2,033 2,115 2026-10-06
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,033 2,033 2026-10-06
10 JPN · Japan 2,026 2,064 2026-09-28
11 NED · Netherlands 2,023 2,177 2026-10-04
12 BEL · Belgium 2,018 2,175 2026-10-05
13 NOR · Norway 1,973 2,053 2026-10-04
14 GER · Germany 1,965 2,254 2026-10-04
15 MEX · Mexico 1,965 2,054 2026-10-06
16 ITA · Italy 1,957 2,095 2026-10-05
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,949 1,962 2026-10-06
18 AUS · Australia 1,936 2,002 2026-09-29
19 SEN · Senegal 1,924 1,991 2026-10-04
20 CRO · Croatia 1,923 2,036 2026-10-06
21 USA · United States 1,923 2,011 2026-10-06
22 ECU · Ecuador 1,919 1,980 2026-09-24
23 AUT · Austria 1,917 1,957 2026-10-04
24 ALG · Algeria 1,911 1,961 2026-10-06
25 URU · Uruguay 1,909 2,056 2026-10-06
26 DEN · Denmark 1,909 2,018 2026-10-04
27 PAR · Paraguay 1,905 1,905 2026-10-02
28 KOR · South Korea 1,901 1,986 2026-10-06
29 IRN · Iran 1,900 2,017 2026-09-29
30 CAN · Canada 1,878 2,010 2026-10-06
All rated teams 14,934 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
9851 Øresund klubfodbold DEN 1,480 1,500 1 2025-08-06
9852 Willem II Tilburg NED 1,480 1,743 1,009 2026-09-19
9853 Camacha POR 1,480 1,517 6 2026-09-27
9854 Blau-Weiß Feldkirch AUT 1,480 1,500 12 1978-09-12
9855 Magen Akatemia FIN 1,480 1,500 1 2015-02-14
9856 Unia Krapkowice POL 1,480 1,508 3 1995-08-02
9857 Sandıklıspor TUR 1,480 1,500 6 2015-09-09
9858 Hechtel FC BEL 1,480 1,515 9 2018-08-04
9859 Balıkesir Karagücü TUR 1,480 1,500 1 1965-09-05
9860 FV Engers 07 GER 1,480 1,500 3 2025-08-17
9861 OPS-j A FIN 1,480 1,500 1 2006-05-09
9862 Letterkenny Rovers IRL 1,480 1,518 9 2019-08-11
9863 Industria Galda ROU 1,480 1,527 12 2024-07-31
9864 tst Fodbold DEN 1,480 1,500 3 2023-09-26
9865 ATUS Bärnbach AUT 1,480 1,508 8 1979-08-11
9866 Borgen Sarpsborg NOR 1,480 1,520 10 1975-05-29
9867 Arapongas Esporte Clube BRA 1,480 1,508 4 2013-05-22
9868 FC Mistelbach AUT 1,480 1,500 2 2010-07-31
9869 Chimia Craiova ROU 1,480 1,500 1 2003-10-01
9870 RIlves FIN 1,480 1,520 5 2006-05-20
9871 Shobi University JPN 1,480 1,500 3 2009-09-20
9872 Heywood Central ENG 1,480 1,500 1 1887-10-15
9873 Hersonissos GRE 1,480 1,500 2 2010-09-15
9874 FC Averbode-Okselaa BEL 1,480 1,500 1 2013-08-11
9875 VK Sint-Agatha-Berchem BEL 1,480 1,500 1 2018-07-28
9876 IL Frogg NOR 1,480 1,500 3 1937-08-01
9877 Grêmio Barueri BRA 1,480 1,500 6 2014-05-08
9878 TUS FIN 1,480 1,504 5 2008-06-19
9879 St Mary's Athlone IRL 1,480 1,500 1 1984-02-03
9880 Vegalta Sendai JPN 1,480 1,644 389 2025-06-11
9881 FC St. Margarethen AUT 1,480 1,500 1 1987-08-11
9882 FC Flurlingen SUI 1,480 1,520 7 1998-08-22
9883 Kontich FC BEL 1,480 1,508 22 2018-08-04
9884 SK Djerv 1919 NOR 1,480 1,553 264 2026-09-08
9885 FC Freyming FRA 1,480 1,500 1 2025-12-20
9886 SV Straelen GER 1,480 1,500 2 2023-10-31
9887 Korinthos 2006 GRE 1,480 1,500 2 2018-09-16
9888 Viitorul Drăgăşani ROU 1,480 1,500 1 1984-11-29
9889 FC Winznau SUI 1,480 1,507 2 1997-08-17
9890 TOGB Berkel NED 1,480 1,500 2 2026-09-23
9891 Eskişehirspor TUR 1,480 1,761 450 2025-09-18
9892 Yorkshire Amateur ENG 1,480 1,500 3 1945-11-24
9893 ASC Gordola SUI 1,480 1,500 1 2007-09-16
9894 Gimnazjum Radomsko POL 1,480 1,500 1 1951-03-25
9895 Araklıspor TUR 1,480 1,500 2 2010-09-01
9896 Sao Roque POR 1,480 1,500 1 2026-09-06
9897 CD Ourense ESP 1,480 1,505 134 2026-08-29
9898 Boxholms IF SWE 1,480 1,500 1 2020-08-26
9899 Vansbro AIK SWE 1,480 1,512 3 2014-03-13
9900 Ton Pentre ENG 1,480 1,500 1 1986-11-15
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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