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// Elo ratings 545,213 matches rated · 14,929 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,213
Teams rated14,929
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,660 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,870 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,056 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,725 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,812 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,160 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,378 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,456 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,120 2,143 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,071 2,097 2026-09-20
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
25 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,016 2,050 2026-09-25
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,593 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
601 Kayserispor TUR 1,587 1,789 955 2026-05-17
602 Rio Ave POR 1,586 1,704 831 2026-09-19
603 NK Domžale SVN 1,586 1,601 46 2019-09-09
604 AC Horsens DEN 1,586 1,659 311 2026-09-20
605 VSG Altglienicke GER 1,585 1,601 83 2026-09-25
606 Skive IK DEN 1,585 1,619 39 2025-09-02
607 Leyton Orient ENG 1,585 1,703 1,950 2026-09-19
608 RUS Givry BEL 1,585 1,592 42 2018-08-26
609 Tampere United/2 FIN 1,585 1,585 12 2025-04-16
610 Eyüpspor TUR 1,585 1,676 132 2026-09-20
611 Calcio Foggia ITA 1,585 1,650 418 2026-04-26
612 NK Osijek CRO 1,584 1,621 36 2019-09-09
613 Andorra ESP 1,584 1,660 149 2026-09-26
614 Hobro IK DEN 1,584 1,610 212 2026-07-04
615 Antalyaspor TUR 1,584 1,767 1,039 2026-05-17
616 Ciudad de Murcia ESP 1,584 1,611 168 2007-06-16
617 Asteras Tripolis GRE 1,584 1,777 729 2026-09-20
618 Trapani Calcio ITA 1,584 1,664 370 2026-04-26
619 Wanderers ENG 1,584 1,644 30 1880-01-24
620 HŠK Zrinjski Mostar BIH 1,584 1,602 54 2026-09-27
621 IFK Värnamo SWE 1,584 1,760 186 2026-03-07
622 Győri ETO HUN 1,584 1,591 62 2025-10-04
623 CE Sabadell ESP 1,583 1,584 233 2026-09-26
624 Doncaster Rovers ENG 1,583 1,733 1,660 2026-09-19
625 Al Nassr KSA 1,583 1,644 138 2026-09-12
626 TPV FIN 1,583 1,617 39 2025-04-22
627 EsPa FIN 1,583 1,620 29 2026-02-18
628 Śląsk Wrocław POL 1,582 1,694 606 2026-09-18
629 Klubi-04 FIN 1,582 1,605 29 2025-06-24
630 FC Alashkert ARM 1,582 1,714 452 2026-09-26
631 AS Ostendaise BEL 1,582 1,591 7 1927-05-08
632 Peñarol URU 1,582 1,596 9 1987-12-13
633 Sogndal IL NOR 1,582 1,866 1,251 2026-09-20
634 PuiU FIN 1,582 1,602 17 2025-04-16
635 EBK FIN 1,581 1,581 13 2025-04-22
636 Oud-Heverlee Leuven BEL 1,581 1,708 410 2026-09-19
637 NK Olimpija Ljubljana SVN 1,581 1,615 88 2025-10-04
638 B 93 DEN 1,581 1,604 48 2026-07-04
639 K. FC Germinal Ekeren BEL 1,580 1,614 40 1998-10-17
640 Rapperswil-Jona SUI 1,580 1,585 64 2025-12-03
641 RNK Split CRO 1,580 1,585 12 2014-10-04
642 Grimsby Town ENG 1,580 1,632 1,973 2026-09-26
643 Kapfenberger SV AUT 1,580 1,658 136 2026-09-24
644 Politehnica Iași ROU 1,580 1,673 482 2025-08-27
645 ASKÖ Pasching AUT 1,579 1,595 34 2013-10-29
646 Austria Lustenau AUT 1,579 1,678 190 2026-09-24
647 VfL Wolfsburg II GER 1,579 1,590 34 2018-05-16
648 Tubantia FAC BEL 1,579 1,599 10 1935-04-28
649 Salzburg Amateure AUT 1,579 1,579 8 2007-04-04
650 Shakhtyor Soligorsk BLR 1,579 1,579 38 2019-10-04
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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